Wheat maritime trade & food security

General points – Exports/Imports 

• After edging higher during the latter half of February, global wheat seaborne deliveries subsided during 1-15 March, falling to 5.5 million tonnes (6.2 million tonnes prior fortnight), slightly below the average fortnightly volume of 5.7 million tonnes recorded since the start of the 2024/25 (July/June) season. The recent dip was chiefly tied to reduced deliveries to Africa, most notably to Northern Africa, as well as easing flows to Europe and parts of Asia (Eastern and Southern Asia). In contrast, larger arrivals were reported for South America and South-eastern and Western Asia.
• At 5.5 million tonnes, estimated global wheat arrivals during 1-15 March were one-quarter below the volume recorded during the same period last year and one-fifth below the prior three-year average, with 2024/25 (July/June) accumulated deliveries of 97.1 million tonnes down by 4% from last season.  
• The 4% annual decline in global seaborne imports is mainly linked to smaller imports by parts of Asia, namely by Eastern (-33% year-on-year), Southern (-45%) and Western Asia (-21%). Softer import demand is also noted in Central America (arrivals to date down by 8% year-on-year) and North America (down by 15%). 

Key insights

Imports vs prices/ freight

• Negative sentiment across world commodity and financial markets amid trade tensions between the US and some key partners weighed on wheat export prices during the past two weeks, albeit as trade-related fears eased following the one-month postponement of US tariffs on some Mexican and Canadian goods. Also buoyed by a softening US dollar and renewed concerns about 2025/26 crop conditions in some key exporters, wheat markets posted some gains recently, however, average fob quotations at key wheat origins during the first half of March averaged markedly lower compared to the previous month (as measured by the wheat sub-Index of the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI)). 
• Dry bulk freight costs (including fuel) for grains and oilseeds dispatches during the first half of March were little changed, on average, compared to the prior two weeks. However, values were trending higher in recent days, as evidenced by the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Freight Index (GOFI). The recent upturn in freight rates was led by Australia, Brazil and the US, where brisk demand for grains and oilseeds shipments was a notable market feature. Still, the IGC Index was around one-fifth lower year-on-year as of mid-March 2025.

Bi-weekly / cumulative imports/exports

• The bulk of the decline in global maritime wheat deliveries during 1-15 March, to 5.4 million tonnes (6.2 million tonnes prior fortnight), was tied to smaller arrivals to Northern Africa. With subsiding flows to Egypt, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia, mainly from the Russian Federation and the Baltic States, only partly countered by increased arrivals to Algeria, the fortnightly volume for Northern Africa dropped by 0.6 million tonnes from the second half of February, to 1.1 million tonnes. Yet, at 20.1 million tonnes, 2024/25 (July/June) cumulative imports by Northern Africa were 6% higher year-on-year as of mid-March, with all countries, aside from Morocco and Tunisia, sourcing larger volumes this season. 
• Some slowdown in seaborne deliveries was also noted for other parts of Africa. In particular, arrivals to Western Africa, the continent’s second largest importing sub-region, dipped to around 400,000 tonnes (420,000 tonnes prior fortnight), as 2024/25 imports reached 7.8 million tonnes (+17% year-on-year). While the recent retreat in shipments was largely linked to the sub-region’s leading importers – Cote d’Ivoire and Nigeria – cumulative arrivals to both countries were well ahead of last year, estimated at 0.9 million tonnes (0.6 million tonnes same period last year) and 4.1 million tonnes (3.5 million tonnes), respectively. Some other countries in Western Africa have also increased their purchases this season, however, arrivals to Gambia, Guinea and Senegal are lower year-on-year. For the latter, only a partial shift in imports from the EU to South America (Argentina, Brazil) has been noted this season, with total imports to date of around 700,000 tonnes some 120,000 tonnes lower year-on-year.   
• Chiefly owing to a reduction for Angola, 1-15 March deliveries to Middle Africa fell to around 80,000 tonnes, from 210,000 tonnes in the fortnight before. Still, at around 1.8 million tonnes, total seaborne arrivals to that sub-region were 41% higher year-on-year, with all countries, barring Gabon, sourcing larger volumes this season. 
• A slight slowdown in arrivals to Eastern Africa broadly stemmed from reduced imports by Kenya (from the Russian Federation and Argentina). Nonetheless, accumulated deliveries from those two origins to Kenya run well ahead of last year, more than compensating from smaller purchases from the EU (Latvia, Poland, Romania) and Ukraine, with total imports estimated at 2.1 million tonnes, up by 0.3 million tonnes year-on-year. 2024/25 (July/June) imports by Eastern Africa of 5.0 million tonnes were up by 11% year-on-year as of mid-March, albeit with smaller cumulative deliveries reported for Eritrea, Madagascar, Reunion, Somalia and Tanzania. It should be noted, however, that some countries in that sub-region normally complement grain wheat purchases by substantial volumes of flour, mainly originating from Egypt and Turkey (flour shipments are not covered by the dashboard). 
• In Asia, deliveries to the Eastern sub-region slowed further, falling to around 0.3 million tonnes during 1-15 March (0.5 million tonnes prior fortnight). The decline was led by China and South Korea, with imports by both countries trailing last season. Imports by China have been unusually weak this marketing year, with around 1.3 million tonnes reported to have been received through mid-March (from the start of July 2024), down from around 6.0 million tonnes one year earlier. 
• In contrast, deliveries to South America accelerated over the past fortnight, largely because of increased shipments to Brazil (mainly from Argentina), Peru (from Canada and the US) and Venezuela (from Canada), lifting sub-regional imports to 9.5 million tonnes, up by 11% year-on-year. However, at 1.3 million tonnes and 0.7 million tonnes, respective accumulated arrivals to Peru and Venezuela remained slightly behind last season, with smaller volumes also reported for Chile (740,000 tonnes, down by 180,000 tonnes year-on-year) and Guyana (21,000 tonnes, down by 8,000 tonnes). 

Key insights

Expected arrivals

• At around 8.9 million tonnes, the global volume of cargoes in transit as of mid-March was little changed from two weeks earlier, well below the peaks of around 11.0 million tonnes recorded in January and early-February. The total included 7.8 million tonnes with specified destinations (7.7 million tonnes as at the end of February).
• However, there were some mixed changes across the main importing regions, as the line-up for Africa rose by around 0.4 million tonnes, to 2.7 million tonnes, including larger volumes for Northern Africa (mainly for Morocco, Sudan and Tunisia). Notably, around 140,000 tonnes were reportedly destined from the Russian Federation to Sudan, marking the largest recorded line-up since September 2023.
• The line-up for Eastern Africa also increased, reaching 580,000 tonnes (470,000 tonnes a fortnight earlier), primarily owing to fresh cargoes from Canada to Mozambique. 
• At around 770,000 tonnes, cargoes in transit to Western Africa were estimated to be 260,000 tonnes higher compared to the end of February, chiefly because of increased line-ups for Nigeria and Senegal. Boosted by cargoes from the EU (France, Latvia), the line-up for Senegal rose to 108,000 tonnes, the highest since February 2024. 
• In contrast, the line-up for South America, dropped by around 300,000 tonnes over the past two weeks, to 630,000 tonnes, as volumes for Peru and Venezuela subsided after an earlier uptick in deliveries, with a significant decline also reported for Colombia.
• The aggregated line-up for Asia was broadly steady from the end of February, at around 3.9 million tonnes, including 1.2 million tonnes to each Eastern and South-eastern Asia. 
• Among the key exporters, Canada was the leading origin for reported cargoes in transit for the second successive week, accounting for around 1.6 million tonnes (1.6 million tonnes two weeks earlier). This was followed by Argentina at 1.3 million tonnes (1.6 million tonnes), the European Union at 1.2 million tonnes (0.9 million tonnes), the Russian Federation at 1.0 million tonnes (0.5 million tonnes) and Australia with 0.9 million tonnes of cargoes in transit (0.9 million tonnes). Around 0.7 million tonnes was reported to be transiting from Brazil (0.8 million tonnes), with the United States reported as the origin for 0.6 million tonnes (0.8 million tonnes). 

Key insights

Exporter line ups

• Loadings at Argentine ports remained seasonally brisk, with the port line-up showing around 200,000 tonnes destined for Africa (Nigeria), South America (Brazil, Peru) and Asia (Vietnam). Preliminary data also showed a 27,000-tonne cargo at the port of Rosario destined for China, although with further confirmation required. 
• Cargo loadings in Australia featured around 100,000 tonnes for Indonesia and Vietnam, with an additional 140,000 tonnes loaded for unspecified destinations. 
• In Canada, around 220,000 tonnes was preparing to be shipped, including to Morocco (15,000 tonnes), China (36,000 tonnes), Colombia (21,000 tonnes) and Bangladesh (112,000 tonnes). 
• Current loadings in the Russian Federation included around 67,000 tonnes destined for Saudi Arabia and 47,000 tonnes for Turkey. 
• Brazil was expected to dispatch 39,000 tonnes to Vietnam. 

Key insights

Delivery times (updated at the beginning of each month)

• Calculated journey times (from dispatch to unloading) show that the average delivery period for global wheat shipments over the past three seasons (Jul/Jun) was close to one month (27 days). 
• Among net importing sub-regions, Southern Asia and Sothern Africa have the longest delivery periods, averaging 41 and 35 days over the past three seasons, respectively. Average delivery times to Eastern Africa and other parts of Asia (Eastern, South-eastern and Western Asia) also exceeded 30 days. In contrast, the shortest delivery times were reported for such net importing sub-regions as the Caribbean and Central America, averaging 18 and 21 days, respectively. 
• At around 27 days, the global average delivery period during July-Nov 2024 was broadly similar to the prior three-year average, but with mixed changes across constituent sub-regions. At around 37 days, delivery times for Eastern Africa were estimated to be 5 days longer than the three-year average. This was largely linked to a longer recent delivery from Ukraine (Chornomorsk) to Somalia (Berbera Port), with the cargo initially partly unloaded in Tunisia. An unusually long unloading time was also reported for a recent cargo from the Russian Federation (Kavkaz) to Djibouti. Longer than normal delivery periods from the EU (Latvia), which used circuitous routes via southern Africa, also contributed to an overall increase in delivery times to Eastern Africa compared to the three-year average.
• Slightly longer than average delivery times were also reported for Western and Middle Africa during July-November 2024, averaging 24 days (23 days during prior three seasons) and 32 days (30 days), respectively. The change for Western Africa was partly tied to an unusual delivery from the US Pacific Coast, with the vessel initially unloading at some destinations in Pacific Asia. The modest increase for Middle Africa mostly stemmed from longer delivery times from the Russian Federation and Ukraine to Angola, and from the European Union to the Republic of the Congo. 
• Although Central America enjoys one of the shortest delivery periods among net importing sub-regions, the average voyage duration to that area during July-November of around 24 days was some 3 days above the prior three-year average, mainly because of longer delivery times from the United States and Canada to Guatemala.    
• Journey times for deliveries to Southern Asia have fluctuated significantly over the past three years. After surging from the normal 32-33 days to more than 50 days during 2023 amid unloading delays at Iranian ports, journey durations retreated in 2024, with the average period during July-November estimated at 38 days.

Key insights

Role of trade versus delivery time matrix (updated at the beginning of each month)

SSR matrix

• Some regions, including Western Africa, South-eastern Asia, Middle Africa and the Caribbean, are almost totally reliant on imports for their domestic consumption of wheat, although the absolute volume of wheat consumption in the latter two regions is relatively small compared to other areas. At the same time, South-eastern Asia and Middle Africa have one of the longest average delivery times of around 30 days (based on calculated journey-related data over the past three seasons).

Regional timeline chart

• Calculated indicators suggest little improvement in production to consumption ratios over the past decade, on average, for some net importing regions, including all parts of Africa. All African regions have average ratios of less than 50%, with particularly low indicators noted for Middle and Western Africa. 

5-year average chart

• The five-year average production to consumption ratios have declined slightly for some parts of Asia over the past decade. Notably, the indicator for Eastern Asia dropped from the average of around 100% during 2014/15-2018/19 to 89% over the following five years, mainly reflecting a falling ratio for China.
• In contrast the level of production-to-consumption improved markedly for South America and Other Europe over the past five years (largely owing to growing production in Argentina, Brazil and the Russian Federation, respectively), with the former region’s average ratio over the past five years reaching 100%.