Wheat maritime trade & food security

General points – Exports/Imports 

• Wheat seaborne trade continued to ramp up during August, after a relatively slow start to the marketing year, with global shipments during the month estimated at around 11.6 million tonnes, almost 1.0 million tonnes higher than in July. 
• However, the number fell short of the same month last year, as 2025/26 (July/June) cumulative deliveries reached 22.3 million tonnes by end-August, down by 9% year-on-year and modestly below the prior three-year average. 
• Most net importing sub-regions have been smaller buyers so far this season, with aggregated imports by Africa and Asia down by 6% and 12% year-on-year, respectively. Nonetheless, the former continent featured mixed trends, as weaker demand from Northern (-16% year-on-year), Eastern (-14%) and Southern (-13%) Africa contrasted with larger purchases to date by Middle (+20%) and Western (+30%) sub-regions.  
   

Key insights

Exports vs prices/ freight

• Global wheat export prices continued to be pressured by ample global supply prospects and soft early-season demand from some buyers, although reluctant farmer selling at some key origins helped to limit downside. Improving crop prospects in Argentina and Australia – the main southern hemisphere exporters – were notable bearish factors, as were climbing production estimates and falling fob offers in the Russian Federation. As at end-August, the wheat sub-Index of the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) was marginally lower year-on-year, with values falling to a five-year low more recently.

   

• Average dry bulk freight costs – tracked by the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Freight Index (GOFI) – exhibited two-sided trends during August, but with values little-changed month-on-month. Reflecting firmer freight rates at all underlying origins, the Index was 9% higher year-on-year as of 31 August, led by gains at South American origins (Argentina, Brazil) and in the Black Sea region (the Russian Federation, Ukraine).  
   

Bi-weekly / cumulative imports/exports

• Easing supply shortages in the Black Sea region after earlier delays contributed to increased wheat deliveries during August, with global arrivals estimated at 11.6 million tonnes, up from 10.7 million tonnes in July 2025.
• The monthly increase in deliveries was almost entirely linked to larger purchases by two African sub-regions, namely Northern and Eastern Africa.
• August seaborne imports by Northern Africa totalled 2.9 million tonnes (2.0 million tonnes previous month), with all importers, barring Morocco, receiving larger volumes compared to the month before. Particularly strong increases were reported for Egypt, Libya, Tunisia and Sudan. Despite the recent upswing in arrivals, accumulated imports by all countries in Northern Africa, except for Sudan, remain below last season, with the largest annual declines (in absolute terms) reported for Algeria and Egypt. As at end-August, aggregate 2025/26 deliveries to Northern Africa totalled 4.9 million tonnes, a 16% annual decline.
• Similarly, Eastern Africa saw a marked upturn in deliveries during August, to around 730,000 tonnes, up from 500,000 tonnes in July. The increase included larger volumes for Djibouti, Mozambique, Kenya and Tanzania, but with July-August imports by the latter two countries still down by 34% and 20%, at 380,000 tonnes and 250,000 tonnes, respectively. Furthermore, shipping data showed no seaborne wheat deliveries to Madagascar so far this season, compared to around 30,000 tonnes one year ago. As of 31 August, 2025/26 cumulative deliveries to Eastern Africa were estimated at 1.2 million tonnes, down by 14% year-on-year.
• In contrast to Northern and Eastern Africa, deliveries to other African sub-regions slowed during August, with particularly sharp declines noted for Angola, Cameroon and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. However, this drop followed relatively strong imports during the prior month, with accumulated July-August imports by all three importers slightly above last year. Total sub-regional imports through August 2025 reached 630,000 tonnes, 20% above the same period last year.
• Despite the recent slowdown, 2025/26 (July/June) maritime deliveries to Western Africa as of end-August were up by almost one-third year-on-year, at an estimated 2.1 million tonnes. Most countries in that sub-region have secured larger volumes compared to last season, led by Nigeria, with only small year-on-year lags noted for Benin, Guinea and Togo.
• Elsewhere in Africa, shipments to the Southern sub-region edged lower month-on-month, while the marketing year tally reached 780,000 tonnes, a 13% annual drop. Accumulated imports by South Africa are moderately higher year-on-year, while minimal imports of around 11,000 tonnes have been reported for Namibia (compared to more than 100,000 tonnes one year ago). 
• Trade flows to Asia exhibited mixed trends during August, as larger imports by Eastern Asia contrasted with smaller volumes for Southern Asia (August deliveries to Western and South-eastern Asia were little-changed month-on-month). Despite the recent upturn in shipments, 2025/26 (July/June) aggregated arrivals to Eastern Asia of around 2.0 million tonnes were down by 22% year-on-year as of end-August, with only Chinese Taipei sourcing more wheat compared to one year before. Notably, seaborne imports by China to date were estimated at around 380,000 tonnes, down from 740,000 tonnes as of end-August 2024.
• Among other notable changes in Asia, imports by Southern Asia fell sharply during August, to 200,000 tonnes (455,000 tonnes in July), as deliveries to Bangladesh slumped. This season’s slower imports by that country (estimated at around 400,000 tonnes, down by 35% year-on-year), outweigh slight year-on-year increases for other sub-regional importers, with total arrivals of 650,000 tonnes down by 13% year-on-year.
• Similar to other Asian sub-regions, 2025/26 accumulated maritime deliveries to South-eastern and Western Asia lagged last season as at end-August, down by 5% and 21%, year-on-year, respectively.  In the former sub-region, only the Philippines and Vietnam saw larger arrivals so far this season (estimated at 1.4 million tonnes and 530,000 tonnes, respectively). In Western Asia, lower accumulated imports were reported for all countries, barring Bahrain, Iraq and United Arab Emirates. Notably, Iraq reportedly received around 165,000 tonnes during July and August, from Australia, the EU and the Russian Federation (there were no reported wheat deliveries to Iraq at this point last year). 
   

Key insights

Expected arrivals

• Against the backdrop of accelerating trade flows, the volume of wheat cargoes in transit increased towards the end of August, estimated at 9.2 million tonnes, some 1.0 million higher than one month earlier. The total included around 8.0 million tonnes with specified destinations.
• The data showed increasing line-ups for both Asia and Africa, estimated at around 3.9 million tonnes (3.6 million tonnes as at end-July) and 2.9 million tonnes (2.6 million tonnes), respectively.
• Notably, in Northern Africa, a sizable increase in volumes was reported for Egypt and Morocco, while in Eastern Africa a sharp upturn was noted for Kenya, to around 350,000 tonnes (41,000 tonnes one month earlier). Similarly, in Western Africa, the line-up destined for Nigeria increased to 540,000 tonnes by the end of August (450,000 tonnes as of end-July).
• In Eastern Asia, a sharp rise in volumes transiting to South Korea was a notable feature. The country is expected to receive around 900,000 tonnes in the coming weeks, up from 500,000 one month earlier.
• An upturn in transits was also noted for Southern Asia, notably to Bangladesh. This compensated for subsiding flows to other destinations in that sub-region. 
• Mixed monthly changes were seen in Western Asia, where rising line-ups to Turkey and United Arab Emirates contrasted with receding transit volume elsewhere, most notably to Iraq and Yemen. 
• On the export side, the Russian Federation reclaimed the leading position, accounting for around 1.8 million tonnes of reported cargoes in transit (1.0 million tonnes as of end-July). This was closely followed by the United States, at 1.7 million tonnes (1.5 million tonnes). The line-up from the European Union increased moderately compared to end-July, reaching 1.5 million tonnes (1.2 million tonnes). In contrast, the volume originating from Australia halved over the month, falling to around 0.9 million tonnes. Transits from Canada also declined sharply, to 0.6 million tonnes, from 1.4 million tonnes one month before. Transits from Argentina and Ukraine were pegged at 0.4 million tonnes and 0.8 million tonnes, respectively. 

Key insights

Exporter line ups

• Available data indicated a further decline in port line-ups in Australia, where ongoing loadings as at end-August were reported at 140,000 tonnes, down from 200,000 tonnes a month ago. While destinations for the bulk of the volume were noted yet specified, a 40,000-tonne cargo was reportedly scheduled for dispatch to Malaysia. 
• Port line-ups in the European Union featured cargoes for Morocco (15,000 tonnes from France), Algeria (38,000 tonnes from Lithuania), Benin (27,000 tonnes from Lithuania), South Africa (27,000 tonnes from Poland) and Egypt (72,000 tonnes from Romania).
• In the Russian Federation, current loadings included cargoes destined for Egypt, Sudan, Bangladesh and Turkey, totalling around 200,000 tonnes. 
   

Key insights

Delivery times (updated at the beginning of each quarter, next update in early October)

• Calculated journey times (from dispatch to unloading) show that the average delivery period for global wheat shipments over the past three seasons (July/June) was close to one month (27 days).
• Among net importing sub-regions, Southern Asia and Southern Africa have the longest delivery periods, averaging 45 and 35 days over the past three seasons, respectively. Average delivery times to Eastern and Middle Africa, as well as other parts of Asia (Eastern, South-eastern and Western Asia) also exceeded 30 days.
• In contrast, the shortest delivery times were reported for such net importing sub-regions as the Caribbean (19 days, on average), Northern Africa (23 days) and Central America (22 days).
• At around 27 days, the global average delivery period during the first half of 2025 (January-June) broadly matched the prior three-year average. 
• In all Asian sub-regions, average periods for cargoes delivered during January-June 2025 were slightly shorter compared to the previous six months and the three-year average. The most notable improvement was noted for Southern Asia, where average delivery duration retreated to more normal level of around 40 days during January-June 2025 after a spike to over 50 days in the latter half of 2024. The average delivery period during January-June 2025 was also 5 days shorter than the three-year average.
• Mixed changes were reported in Africa. While average delivery times for Middle and Southern Africa were similar or modestly shorter compared to the recent average, estimated at around 31 and 35 days, respectively, values for other African sub-regions increased slightly during the past six months. For instance, at 23 days, the average delivery period for Western Africa was 3 days longer compared to the latter half of 2024 and the three-season average, in part because of elevated duration for deliveries from North America and the European Union, notably to Cote d’Ivoire, Mauritania and Nigeria. The period also featured an unusually long delivery from the Russian port of Kavkaz to Nigeria, which reportedly took more than 100 days. 
•  The slight increase in delivery times to Eastern Africa during the first half of 2025, to around 36 days, was partly tied to an increased share of arrivals from the Russian Federation, notably to Tanzania, which are normally associated with longer journey times, compared to shipments from Argentina and Australia. 

•  Although Central America saw some reduction in delivery times during January-June 2025, the average duration of around 27 days was still 5 days longer compared to the prior three-year average, in part reflecting increased delivery periods from the United States and Canada. 

   

Key insights

Role of trade versus delivery time matrix (updated at the beginning of each year)

SSR matrix

• Some regions, including Western Africa, South-eastern Asia, Middle Africa and the Caribbean, are almost totally reliant on imports for their domestic consumption of wheat, although the absolute volume of wheat consumption in the latter two regions is relatively small compared to other areas. At the same time, South-eastern Asia and Middle Africa have one of the longest average delivery times of around 30 days (based on calculated journey-related data over the past three seasons).

Regional timeline chart

• Calculated indicators show a marginal improvement in production-to-consumption levels in Eastern and Southern Africa over the past decade, with the increase in the former sub-region mainly linked to Ethiopia (from 79% in 2015/16 to 86% in 2024/25) and Zimbabwe (from 31% to 64%). Still, sub-regional numbers indicate that domestic production covers less than half of local consumption for all parts of Africa, with the level for Middle Africa close to zero. 

5-year average chart

• The five-year average production to consumption ratios have declined for most parts of Asia over the past decade, with the largest drop for Eastern Asia, where the indicator slid from the average of around 95% during 2015/16-2019/20 to 88% over the following five years. This mainly reflects a falling ratio for China, from 110% in 2015/16 to 95% in 2024/25.
• Conversely, the level of production-to-consumption has improved markedly for South America and Other Europe over the past five years (largely owing to growing production in Argentina, Brazil and the Russian Federation, respectively), with the former region’s average ratio edging above 100% over the past five years.