Wheat maritime trade & food security

General points – Exports/Imports

Global wheat trade flows slowed markedly in February amid rising export prices, with notable declines in arrivals reported across parts of Asia and Africa. Although this reduced the year-on-year increase in cumulative imports, the 2025/26 (July/June) total remained 2% higher year-on-year as of 28 February, largely reflecting firm demand from Asian buyers.

Shipping data covering the period through end-February 2026 showed no disruption in deliveries to Persian Gulf countries. On the contrary, wheat shipments to the region in January-February were nearly 50% higher year-on-year. 

• Amid firming global export prices, the volume of delivered maritime wheat cargoes dropped markedly in February. At around 11.2 million tonnes, the monthly volume was the second lowest since the start of the 2025/26 (July/June) season and 1.8 million tonnes lower than in the month before. 
• The February tally was 11% below the same month of the previous year and 12% short of the prior three-year average, leading to a further narrowing in the year-on-year increase in cumulative deliveries. At around 100.7 million tonnes, accumulated deliveries over the first eight months of the 2025/26 July/June season were 2% higher year-on-year (4% one month earlier). 
• The 2% year-on-year increase in accumulated global imports is driven by larger deliveries to Asia (+17% year-on-year), particularly to Southern (+38%) and Western (+26%) Asia, which more than offset declines for Europe (-50%) and Africa (-5%). 

Key insights

Exports vs prices/ freight

• Despite adequate nearby availabilities, average wheat export prices firmed during February amid sub-optimal growing conditions and weather-related logistical constraints at several northern hemisphere exporters. With support also stemming from perceived geopolitical risks, the IGC GOI wheat sub-Index – a measure of average fob quotations across the main origins – reached the highest level since June 2025 and was quoted 2% higher year-on-year as at the end of February. 
• Average voyage freight costs on key grains and oilseeds routes also increased during the past month, chiefly reflecting firmer marine fuel prices. This was evidenced by movements in the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Freight Index (GOFI), which climbed by 6% in February and was quoted around 30% higher year-on-year as of the end of the month. 

Bi-weekly / cumulative imports/exports

• The 14% month-on-month drop in maritime wheat imports during February, to around 11.2 million tonnes, was driven by reduced deliveries to Southern and Western Asia, amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising global prices. 
• February arrivals to Southern Asia dropped by around 80% month-on-month, to just around 260,000 tonnes, the smallest monthly volume for the season. Sharp declines were recorded in flows to Bangladesh, Iran and Sri Lanka. Nonetheless, with accumulated imports to date by Bangladesh and Iran remaining well above the previous year, aggregated imports by Southern Asia during July 2025 – February 2026 were 38% higher year-on-year, at 6.4 million tonnes.
• Deliveries to Western Asia fell by around 30% month-on-month in February, to around 1.3 million tonnes, with reduced imports recorded for all countries except Jordan. Still, total maritime arrivals to that sub-region as at 28 February of around 13.0 million tonnes were up 26% year-on-year, reflecting increases for most countries, notably for Turkey, Yemen and Iraq. 
• Likely linked to recent prices dynamics, shipments to Eastern and Western Africa slowed during February, as respective sub-regional totals reached 5.1 million tonnes (+2% year-on-year) and 7.0 million tonnes (-4%). 
• Arrivals to Central and South America also dipped month-on-month, but with seasonal tallies still up by 2% and 4% year-on-year, at 3.0 million tonnes and 9.6 million tonnes, respectively. 

• Maritime flows to other net importing sub-regions held steady or edged higher in February. Month-on-month increases were reported for Northern and Southern Africa, as well as South-eastern Asia and the Caribbean. However, 2025/26 (July/June) accumulated maritime imports by Northern and Southern Africa of 21.1 million tonnes and 1.3 million tonnes were 5% and 20% lower year-on-year as of the end of February, respectively. 

   

Key insights

Expected arrivals

• In contrast to smaller reported maritime arrivals, the global volume of cargoes in transit increased in February, reaching 15.8 million tonnes by the end of the month, up from 15.2 million tonnes as of the end of January. The total included 13.8 million tonnes of cargoes with specified destinations (12.9 million tonnes one month before).
• The recent increase mainly reflected rising flows to Africa, to around 4.5 million tonnes (3.8 million tonnes). The bulk of the rise was attributed to Northern Africa, where larger volumes were reported for all countries, barring Libya. 
• The aggregate line-up to Asia held broadly steady compared to end-January, estimated at around 7.9 million (8.0 million tonnes), with South-eastern Asia accounting for around 40% of the total. 
• On the export side, Argentina remained by far the leading origin for cargoes in transit, accounting for 4.2 million tonnes, only fractionally lower month-on-month. This was followed by the European Union, at 1.9 million tonnes (1.3 million tonnes one month earlier), Canada at 1.8 million tonnes (1.7 million tonnes) and the Russian Federation at 1.7 million tonnes (1.7 million tonnes). The line-up from Australia edged higher month-on-month, to 1.4 million tonnes (1.1 million tonnes), while flows from the United States dipped to 1.1 million tonnes (1.2 million tonnes).

Key insights

Exporter line ups

• Available data showed that the port line-up in Argentina included around 80,000 tonnes destined for Indonesia and Vietnam. 
• In Australia, around 110,000 tonnes were reportedly expected to be shipped to China and New Zealand. 
• Around 150,000 tonnes was reportedly loading at Canadian ports as of the end of February, mainly destined for Algeria, Nigeria and Colombia. 
• Line-ups in the European Union featured 290,000 tonnes prepared for dispatch in France, Lithuania, Poland and Romania, with cargoes in the latter reportedly destined for Jordan and Türkiye. 

Key insights

Delivery times (updated at the beginning of each quarter)

• Calculated journey times (from dispatch to unloading) show that the average delivery period for global wheat shipments over the past three seasons (July/June) was close to one month (28 days). 
• Among net importing sub-regions, Southern Asia and Sothern Africa have the longest delivery periods, averaging 47 and 36 days over the past three seasons, respectively. Average delivery times to Eastern and Middle Africa, as well as Eastern and South-eastern Asia also exceeded 30 days. 
• In contrast, the shortest delivery times were reported for such net importing sub-regions as the Caribbean (18 days, on average), Northern Africa (22 days), Western Africa (24 days) and Central America (24 days). 
• At around 28 days, the global average delivery period during the second half of 2025 (July-December) broadly matched the prior three-year average. 
• Compared to the prior six months, July-December delivery times were shorter for a number of sub-regions in Asia and Africa, notably for Northern Africa (-4 days) and Western Asia (-2 days), with voyage times for the former also 3 days below the prior three-year average. 
• July-December delivery times to Western Africa, Southern Africa, the Caribbean and Eastern Asia were slightly shorter than in preceding six months. Durations were also below the previous three-year average, except for Western Africa, where the indicator stood three days above the corresponding historical benchmark. This partly reflected longer delivery times from Canada to Nigeria, the key sub-regional importer, with some voyages estimated at more than 70 days. The second half of 2025 also featured unusually long voyages from the Russian Federation’s port of Kavkaz to Nigeria, with multiple discharges at Nigerian ports contributing to extended overall delivery times. 
• In contrast to other net importing sub-regions, average delivery times for Middle Africa rose sharply during the July-December period, to 43 days, up by nine days from the preceding six months and 10 days above the prior three-year average. The increase was partly tied to the inclusion of a rare shipment to Equatorial Guinea originating from the Russian Federation (port of Taman), with delivery time estimated at 74 days. Moreover, delivery durations for some other countries in that sub-region were also longer than in the previous six months. This included Angola, Cameroon and Gabon, partly reflecting extended voyage times from the European Union and the Russian Federation. 

• At around 45 days, average delivery times to Southern Asia during July-December 2025 were about six days longer than in the preceding six months. However, the increase was partly attributable to relatively small volumes destined for India, while voyage times for Bangladesh, which accounted for the bulk of sub-region’s imports during the period, were largely steady at around 35 days. 

   

Key insights

Role of trade versus delivery time matrix (updated at the beginning of each year)

SSR matrix

• Some regions, including Western Africa, South-eastern Asia, Middle Africa and the Caribbean, are almost totally reliant on imports for their domestic consumption of wheat, although the absolute volume of wheat consumption in the latter two regions is relatively small compared to other areas. At the same time, South-eastern Asia and Middle Africa have one of the longest average delivery times of around 30 days (based on calculated journey-related data over the past three seasons).

Regional timeline chart

• Calculated indicators show a marginal improvement in production-to-consumption levels in Eastern and Southern Africa over the past decade, with the increase in the former sub-region mainly linked to Ethiopia (from 79% in 2015/16 to 86% in 2024/25) and Zimbabwe (from 31% to 64%). Still, sub-regional numbers indicate that domestic production covers less than half of local consumption for all parts of Africa, with the level for Middle Africa close to zero. 

5-year average chart

• The five-year average production to consumption ratios have declined for most parts of Asia over the past decade, with the largest drop for Eastern Asia, where the indicator slid from the average of around 95% during 2015/16-2019/20 to 88% over the following five years. This mainly reflects a falling ratio for China, from 110% in 2015/16 to 95% in 2024/25.
• Conversely, the level of production-to-consumption has improved markedly for South America and Other Europe over the past five years (largely owing to growing production in Argentina, Brazil and the Russian Federation, respectively), with the former region’s average ratio edging above 100% over the past five years.