Wheat maritime trade & food security

General points – Exports/Imports 

• Global seaborne wheat flows continued to recover from the early-November dip, as the volume climbed to 5.6 million tonnes during the first half of December. This was 5% above the amount reported over the same period last season and broadly matched the prior three-year average.
• Marketing year 2024/25 (July/June) accumulated world seaborne deliveries reached 63.2 million tonnes by mid-December, 3% higher year-on-year and only around 1% short of the prior three-year average. 
• The 3% annual increase in accumulated maritime wheat shipments during the first five and a half months of the marketing year reflects stronger purchases by Africa, especially by Northern Africa, as well as South America, the Caribbean, South-eastern Asia and Europe. Conversely, smaller deliveries to date were reported for other parts of Asia, North and Central America. 

Key insights

Imports vs prices/ freight

• After four successive fortnightly declines, average global wheat export prices edged higher during the first half of December, as demonstrated by the IGC GOI (Grains and Oilseeds Index) wheat sub-Index. While some underpinning to global prices came from reports of poor 2025/26 winter crop condition in Russia, any rallies continued to be capped by sustained international competition for nearby export business, with the GOI sub-Index quoted around 10% lower year-on-year as of mid-December 2024.
• Demand in the dry bulk freight sector was termed insufficient to absorb available vessel supply across the main loading areas, as the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Freight Index (GOFI), which gauges total seaborne freight costs on selected grains and oilseeds routes, declined for a fifth successive fortnight, quoted around 30% lower year-on-year as of mid-December.

Bi-weekly / cumulative imports/exports

• Divergent trends in seaborne imports by various sub-regions were noted over the first half of December, albeit as the total volume during the period of 5.6 million tonnes was up slightly from the previous fortnight. 
• The latest available shipping data indicated a sizable upturn in deliveries to parts of Asia, notably to Eastern Asia, which received 727,000 tonnes during 1-15 December, up almost three-fold compared to the previous two weeks. All countries in that sub-region saw increased arrivals during the first half of December, as total imports reached 5.6 million tonnes. However, the tally was still 19% lower year-on-year, with cumulative arrivals to all destinations, aside from Japan, lagging last season. The largest annual decline was reported for China, with imports via maritime routes of around 1.1 million tonnes, some 1.7 million tonnes lower year-on-year.
• Deliveries to Western Asia also edged higher during 1-15 December, reaching around 650,000 tonnes (485,000 tonnes prior fortnight), mainly reflecting larger volumes for Israel and Turkey. Nonetheless, this season’s purchases by both countries remain well below last year, with seaborne arrivals to the latter shown at around 1.2 million tonnes (2.1 million tonnes one year ago). However, the actual arrivals to Turkey are likely to be higher, as available shipping data may not fully capture small vessel (coaster) deliveries from Black Sea origins.  
• At around 0.8 million tonnes, 1-15 December arrivals to South America were also significantly higher compared to the second half of November. The bulk of the rise stemmed from a seasonal upturn in exports from Argentina to Brazil, but Peru and Venezuela also saw increased volumes from Canada and the United States over the period. As of mid-December, 2024/25 (July/June) cumulative imports by South America were estimated at 6.2 million tonnes, up by 25% year-on-year, with larger imports by Brazil (2.7 million tonnes), Ecuador (0.7 million tonnes), Uruguay (30,000 tonnes) and Venezuela (0.6 million tonnes) more than compensating for slightly smaller arrivals to other countries. 
• Deliveries to Africa slowed over the past fortnight. Nonetheless, 2024/25 (July/June) cumulative imports by all African sub-regions remain ahead of last season. With around 13.7 million tonnes received through mid-December (up 17% year-on-year), Northern Africa remains the world’s leading importing sub-region, with cumulative deliveries to most countries above last season. 
• In Eastern Africa, only modest annual lags were reported in accumulated arrivals to Eritrea, Reunion and Somalia, with sub-regional imports to date estimated at 3.5 million tonnes (up 19% year-on-year). This included sizable annual gains for Djibouti and Mozambique – the bulk of deliveries to the former termed to be transported to other destinations, notably to Ethiopia.
• 2024/25 (July/June) accumulated imports by Western, Middle and Southern Africa through mid-December were estimated at 5.0 million tonnes (up 15% year-on-year), 1.0 million tonnes (up 32%) and 1.1 million tonnes (up 8%), respectively. In those sub-regions, significant annual declines in cumulative imports were noted only for Senegal in Western Africa (0.4 million tonnes, down by 0.1 million tonnes year-on-year) and Gabon in Middle Africa, with no arrivals so far this season reported to the latter (34,000 tonnes on year ago).

Key insights

Expected arrivals

• At 9.9 million tonnes, the volume of cargo in transit as of mid-December was a little lower compared to two weeks earlier (10.2 million tonnes). The total included 8.6 million tonnes with specified destinations (8.5 million tonnes).
• The aggregate line-up for Asia increased by around 0.4 million tonnes compared to the end of November, to around 4.1 million tonnes, with about 2.0 million tonnes destined for South-eastern Asia (1.0 million tonnes). Notably, the line-up for Indonesia rose sharply, to around 0.7 million tonnes (0.3 million tonnes), mostly originating from Australia, Canada and the Russian Federation. Volumes for Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam also increased, to a cumulative 1.2 million tonnes (0.7 million tonnes). 
• In contrast, the volume for Eastern Asia declined to around 0.8 million tonnes (1.2 million tonnes), chiefly reflecting subsiding flows to Japan and South Korea. 
• At around 3.0 million tonnes, the cumulative line-up for Africa was little changed compared to end-November. While the volume for Eastern Africa edged lower (mainly owing to Kenya and Mozambique), the flows to Middle and Western Africa increased, with fresh cargoes reported for Angola, Cameroon, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Republic of the Congo, Mauritania, Senegal and Togo. 
• At around 0.9 million tonnes, the line-up for Northern Africa remained strong, even if a little smaller than two weeks earlier (1.1 million tonnes), with the bulk of cargoes destined for Algeria, Egypt and Morocco. 
• In terms of export origins, the Russian Federation was again the leading supplier, with 2.4 million tonnes reported to be en-route from that country, slightly lower than two weeks earlier. A steep rise in volumes was reported for the European Union, to around 1.8 million tonnes (1.0 million tonnes two weeks earlier). This was followed by Canada, with almost 1.8 million tonnes, down from 2.3 million tonnes at the end of November. Around 0.8 million tonnes was originating from the United States, broadly similar to two weeks earlier, with Australia and Argentina reported as origins for a combined 1.2 million tonnes. Around 0.2 million tonnes was originating from Ukraine, down from 0.4 million tonnes as of end-November. 

Key insights

Exporter line ups

• Data for current loadings as of mid-December indicated a sizable line-up at Australian ports, estimated at around 0.4 million tonnes. This included a combined 195,000 tonnes scheduled for delivery to China, South Korea, Indonesia and Yemen.  
• The line-up in Canada included around 34,000 tonnes destined for South Korea and 57,000 tonnes bound for Bangladesh, while exporters in the United States were reportedly loading around 56,000 tonnes for the Philippines. 
• In the Russian Federation, around 69,000 tonnes was expected to be dispatched to Sudan, while a 34,000-tonne cargo was scheduled from Ukraine to Indonesia. 

Key insights

Delivery times (updated at the beginning of each month)

• Calculated journey times (from dispatch to unloading) show that the average delivery period for global wheat shipments over the past three seasons (Jul/Jun) was close to one month (27 days). 
• Among net importing sub-regions, Southern Asia and Sothern Africa have the longest delivery periods, averaging 41 and 35 days over the past three seasons, respectively. Average delivery times to Eastern Africa and other parts of Asia (Eastern, South-eastern and Western Asia) also exceeded 30 days. In contrast, the shortest delivery times were reported for such net importing sub-regions as the Caribbean and Central America, averaging 18 and 21 days, respectively. 
• At around 27 days, the global average delivery period during July-Nov 2024 was broadly similar to the prior three-year average, but with mixed changes across constituent sub-regions. At around 37 days, delivery times for Eastern Africa were estimated to be 5 days longer than the three-year average. This was largely linked to a longer recent delivery from Ukraine (Chornomorsk) to Somalia (Berbera Port), with the cargo initially partly unloaded in Tunisia. An unusually long unloading time was also reported for a recent cargo from the Russian Federation (Kavkaz) to Djibouti. Longer than normal delivery periods from the EU (Latvia), which used circuitous routes via southern Africa, also contributed to an overall increase in delivery times to Eastern Africa compared to the three-year average.
• Slightly longer than average delivery times were also reported for Western and Middle Africa during July-November 2024, averaging 24 days (23 days during prior three seasons) and 32 days (30 days), respectively. The change for Western Africa was partly tied to an unusual delivery from the US Pacific Coast, with the vessel initially unloading at some destinations in Pacific Asia. The modest increase for Middle Africa mostly stemmed from longer delivery times from the Russian Federation and Ukraine to Angola, and from the European Union to the Republic of the Congo. 
• Although Central America enjoys one of the shortest delivery periods among net importing sub-regions, the average voyage duration to that area during July-November of around 24 days was some 3 days above the prior three-year average, mainly because of longer delivery times from the United States and Canada to Guatemala.    
• Journey times for deliveries to Southern Asia have fluctuated significantly over the past three years. After surging from the normal 32-33 days to more than 50 days during 2023 amid unloading delays at Iranian ports, journey durations retreated in 2024, with the average period during July-November estimated at 38 days.

Key insights

Role of trade versus delivery time matrix (updated at the beginning of each month)

SSR matrix

• Some regions, including Western Africa, South-eastern Asia, Middle Africa and the Caribbean, are almost totally reliant on imports for their domestic consumption of wheat, although the absolute volume of wheat consumption in the latter two regions is relatively small compared to other areas. At the same time, South-eastern Asia and Middle Africa have one of the longest average delivery times of around 30 days (based on calculated journey-related data over the past three seasons).

Regional timeline chart

• Calculated indicators suggest little improvement in production to consumption ratios over the past decade, on average, for some net importing regions, including all parts of Africa. All African regions have average ratios of less than 50%, with particularly low indicators noted for Middle and Western Africa. 

5-year average chart

• The five-year average production to consumption ratios have declined slightly for some parts of Asia over the past decade. Notably, the indicator for Eastern Asia dropped from the average of around 100% during 2014/15-2018/19 to 89% over the following five years, mainly reflecting a falling ratio for China.
• In contrast the level of production-to-consumption improved markedly for South America and Other Europe over the past five years (largely owing to growing production in Argentina, Brazil and the Russian Federation, respectively), with the former region’s average ratio over the past five years reaching 100%.