Wheat maritime trade & food security

General points – Exports/Imports

Despite increased market volatility and rising freight costs, the volume of global wheat seaborne deliveries reached a five-month high in March, driven by rising flows to Africa and parts of Asia. The latter accounts for the bulk of the 4% annual increase in 2025/26 (July/June) cumulative global maritime imports to date, though recent trends across the region were mixed and included a sharp drop in deliveries to South Asia.

Private shipping data showed mixed trends in trade flows to Persian Gulf countries during March. While no deliveries were reported to Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and United Arab Emirates, wheat cargo arrivals to ports in Iraq and Saudi Arabia have increased compared to the month before, with volumes reportedly including vessels transiting via the Strait of Hormuz before the outbreak of hostilities in late-February.

• In spite of elevated market volatility and rising freight costs, the volume of global seaborne wheat deliveries rose month-on-month in March, to 13.9 million tonnes. The figure was the highest in five months and up by 17% from the prior month’s upwardly revised estimate.
• Although marginally short of the prior three-year average, the March volume was 16% above the level recorded during the same month one year ago, with 2025/26 (July/June) cumulative deliveries reaching 115.4 million tonnes, a 4% annual increase. 
• The year-on-year rise is almost entirely linked to increased imports by Asia, where maritime imports since 1 July 2025 are estimated to be 19% higher year-on-year. 
• Accumulated arrivals to Central and South America, as well as the Caribbean, are also slightly above last season, but deliveries to Europe are just one-half of the year ago level.

Aggregate seaborne wheat imports by Africa were broadly in line with last year as of the end of March, with larger imports by Eastern Africa (+7% year-on-year) countered by softer demand from some other sub-regions.

Key insights

Exports vs prices/ freight

• Average global wheat export prices – as measured by the wheat sub-Index of the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) – posted sizable gains in March, driven by surging energy markets amid escalating Middle East hostilities. With additional support stemming from crop-related concerns in the US, the sub-Index climbed to a 17-month high by the end of March and was quoted 5% higher year-on-year. 

• With softer timecharter (vessel hire) rates only partly compensating for rising marine fuel prices, which rose by almost 50% over the month, average voyage freight costs on key grains and oilseeds routes increased markedly in March. Reflecting this, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Freight Index (GOFI) touched the highest level since December 2023 in the first half of the month and was up by 21% year-on-year as of 31 March. 

   

Bi-weekly / cumulative imports/exports

• The 17% month-on-month increase in March seaborne arrivals, to 13.9 million tonnes, reflected increased imports by most net importing sub-regions. Notably, arrivals to Northern Africa rose by one-third month-on-month, to a five-month high of 3.3 million tonnes, driven by increased deliveries to Algeria, Sudan and, to a lesser extent, to Egypt and Tunisia. Consequently, aggregate deliveries to that sub-region in the first nine months of the 2025/26 (July/June) season caught up with the previous year, reaching 24.4 million tonnes. However, this masks mixed trends across individual importers, as larger cumulative deliveries to Libya, Morocco and Sudan contrast with smaller imports to date by other countries, notably by Algeria. 
• Other sub-regions in Africa also saw increased arrivals during March, with accumulated imports by Eastern Africa since 1 July 2025 reaching 5.8 million tonnes, up by 7% year-on-year. The annual rise chiefly reflects increases for Kenya (accumulated deliveries at 2.5 million tonnes, +0.3 million tonnes year-on-year) and Tanzania (1.2 million tonnes, +0.2 million tonnes). 
• In contrast, cumulative arrivals to other African sub-regions remained below last season, despite the recent uptick in trade flows, with the largest year-on-year decline reported for Southern Africa. Reflecting reduced imports by Namibia and South Africa, aggregate seaborne imports by that African sub-region were 16% lower year-on-year as of end-March, at an estimated of 1.6 million tonnes. 
• Trade flows in Asia exhibited mixed trends during March, as gains for Eastern and Western Asia contrasted with declines for South-eastern and Southern Asia. In particular, monthly deliveries to Eastern Asia hit a marketing year (July/June) high of 1.4 million tonnes (1.1 million tonnes previous month) on increased arrivals to China, Japan and South Korea. This took sub-region’s 2025/26 arrivals to around 10.0 million tonnes, up 10% year-on-year, largely reflecting firmer demand from China.   
• Despite escalating hostilities in the Middle East, deliveries to Western Asia rose month-on-month, to 1.6 million tonnes, up one-third from February, but well below earlier seasonal peaks. The increase stemmed partly from larger deliveries to Turkey and Jordan, with mixed flows reported to Persian Gulf countries – while no deliveries were reported to Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and United Arab Emirates, arrivals to Iraq and Saudi Arabia rose month-on-month, with volumes including vessels transiting via the Strait of Hormuz before the outbreak of hostilities in late-February. As of 31 March, 2025/26 (July/June) aggregate seaborne wheat deliveries to Western Asia were estimated at 14.5 million tonnes, around one-quarter higher year-on-year, including sizable annual increases for Turkey, Iraq, Israel, Oman, Syria and Yemen. 
• Conversely, deliveries to South Asia plunged by 74% month-on-month in March, to around 230,000 tonnes. The sharp decline was mainly due to smaller arrivals to Bangladesh, reported at just 140,000 tonnes, down from around 800,000 tonnes in the month before. Nonetheless, accumulated seaborne imports by that country in the first nine months of the 2025/26 (July/June) season of around 4.9 million tonnes are 1.2 million tonnes higher year-on-year. Deliveries to Iran dropped markedly during the past two months, but MY cumulative imports of 1.6 million tonnes as of end-March were well above 0.3 million tonnes recorded one year earlier. With increased volumes to date for Bangladesh and Iran more than offsetting smaller deliveries to India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, total arrivals to Southern Asia as of 31 March were estimated to be 43% higher year-on-year, at around 7.5 million tonnes. 
• Despite last month’s dip, 2025/26 (July/June) seaborne imports by South-eastern Asia remained 13% higher year-on-year, at a cumulative 21.2 million tonnes, including annual increases for Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam. 

Key insights

Expected arrivals

• The estimate for global wheat cargoes in transit declined in March, dropping to around 14.0 million tonnes (15.8 million tonnes as of end-February), but remained well above the seasonal average of 12.1 million tonnes. The tally included 11.8 million tonnes of cargoes with specified destinations (13.8 million tonnes). 
• The month-on-month decline reflected subsiding flows to both Asia and Africa, with aggregated line-ups reported at 6.7 million tonnes (7.9 million tonnes) and 3.7 million tonnes (4.5 million tonnes), respectively. 
• On the export side, Argentina retained the leading position for cargoes in transit, accounting for 3.4 million tonnes, however, the volume was around 0.8 million tonnes lower compared to one month earlier. This was followed by Canada and the European Union, at 1.7 million tonnes (1.8 million tonnes one month ago) and 1.6 million tonnes (1.9 million tonnes), respectively. The line-up from the Russian Federation totalled 1.3 million tonnes, down from 1.7 million tonnes as at end-February, with those from Australia and the United States reported at around 1.2 million tonnes (1.4 million tonnes and 1.1 million tonnes one month earlier, respectively).

Key insights

Exporter line ups

• Available shipping data as of 31 March showed a 67,000-tonne wheat cargo loading in Argentina for Brazil, with another 25,000 tonnes reported for unspecified destinations. 
• The port line-up in Australia was reported at around 170,000 tonnes, with around one-half destined for Pacific Asia (Indonesia and the Philippines). 
• A vessel in the United States was reportedly loading around 53,000 tonnes of wheat for South Korea. 

Key insights

Delivery times (updated at the beginning of each quarter)

• Calculated journey times (from dispatch to unloading) show that the average delivery period for global wheat shipments over the past three seasons (July/June) was close to one month (28 days).
• Among net importing sub-regions, Southern Asia and Sothern Africa have the longest delivery periods, averaging 47 and 36 days over the past three seasons, respectively. Average delivery times to Eastern and Middle Africa, as well as Eastern and South-eastern Asia also exceeded 30 days. 
• In contrast, the shortest delivery times were reported for such net importing sub-regions as the Caribbean (18 days, on average), Northern Africa (22 days), Western Africa (24 days) and Central America (24 days). 
• At around 28 days, the global average delivery period during the second half of 2025 (July-December) broadly matched the prior three-year average. 
• Compared to the prior six months, July-December delivery times were shorter for a number of sub-regions in Asia and Africa, notably for Northern Africa (-4 days) and Western Asia (-2 days), with voyage times for the former also 3 days below the prior three-year average. 
• July-December delivery times to Western Africa, Southern Africa, the Caribbean and Eastern Asia were slightly shorter than in preceding six months. Durations were also below the previous three-year average, except for Western Africa, where the indicator stood three days above the corresponding historical benchmark. This partly reflected longer delivery times from Canada to Nigeria, the key sub-regional importer, with some voyages estimated at more than 70 days. The second half of 2025 also featured unusually long voyages from the Russian Federation’s port of Kavkaz to Nigeria, with multiple discharges at Nigerian ports contributing to extended overall delivery times. 
• In contrast to other net importing sub-regions, average delivery times for Middle Africa rose sharply during the July-December period, to 43 days, up by nine days from the preceding six months and 10 days above the prior three-year average. The increase was partly tied to the inclusion of a rare shipment to Equatorial Guinea originating from the Russian Federation (port of Taman), with delivery time estimated at 74 days. Moreover, delivery durations for some other countries in that sub-region were also longer than in the previous six months. This included Angola, Cameroon and Gabon, partly reflecting extended voyage times from the European Union and the Russian Federation. 
• At around 45 days, average delivery times to Southern Asia during July-December 2025 were about six days longer than in the preceding six months. However, the increase was partly attributable to relatively small volumes destined for India, while voyage times for Bangladesh, which accounted for the bulk of sub-region’s imports during the period, were largely steady at around 35 days.

Key insights

Role of trade versus delivery time matrix (updated at the beginning of each year)

SSR matrix

• Some regions, including Western Africa, South-eastern Asia, Middle Africa and the Caribbean, are almost totally reliant on imports for their domestic consumption of wheat, although the absolute volume of wheat consumption in the latter two regions is relatively small compared to other areas. At the same time, South-eastern Asia and Middle Africa have one of the longest average delivery times of around 30 days (based on calculated journey-related data over the past three seasons).

Regional timeline chart

• Calculated indicators show a marginal improvement in production-to-consumption levels in Eastern and Southern Africa over the past decade, with the increase in the former sub-region mainly linked to Ethiopia (from 79% in 2015/16 to 86% in 2024/25) and Zimbabwe (from 31% to 64%). Still, sub-regional numbers indicate that domestic production covers less than half of local consumption for all parts of Africa, with the level for Middle Africa close to zero. 

5-year average chart

• The five-year average production to consumption ratios have declined for most parts of Asia over the past decade, with the largest drop for Eastern Asia, where the indicator slid from the average of around 95% during 2015/16-2019/20 to 88% over the following five years. This mainly reflects a falling ratio for China, from 110% in 2015/16 to 95% in 2024/25.
• Conversely, the level of production-to-consumption has improved markedly for South America and Other Europe over the past five years (largely owing to growing production in Argentina, Brazil and the Russian Federation, respectively), with the former region’s average ratio edging above 100% over the past five years.