Wheat maritime trade & food security

General points – Exports/Imports 

• An estimated 5.1 million tonnes of wheat was delivered to monitored ports during the first fortnight of the 2025/26 July/June marketing year. This was slightly short (-5%) of the volume over the same period last year, but exceeded the prior three-year average by 2%.   
• The 5% year-on-year decline in 1-15 July imports was mainly attributed to slow arrivals to Asia, as the region received around 1.7 million tonnes, down by 17% year-on-year. 
• Early-season arrivals to Africa were only slightly below last year (-3%), while deliveries to the Americas, Europe and Oceania were markedly larger than one year earlier. 

Key insights

Imports vs prices/ freight

• Northern hemisphere harvest pressure and a generally favourable supply outlook weighed on world wheat export prices in recent weeks, as demonstrated by the IGC GOI (Grains and Oilseeds Index) wheat sub-Index, which declined to a near one-year low recently. However, there were mixed changes at underlying export origins, as poorer than expected early harvest results and reluctant grower selling underpinned prices in the EU and the Black Sea region.
• Freight costs on the main grains and oilseeds maritime routes, as tracked by the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Freight Index (GOFI), continued to rise during the first half of July. Recent gains were led by the sector for relatively large Panamax bulk vessels, where solid demand for transatlantic voyages and for grains and oilseeds deliveries from South America contributed to tightening tonnage availability. 

Bi-weekly / cumulative imports/exports

• The recent shipping data pointed to relatively steady imports by Africa, with aggregate imports during 1-15 July reported at 2.3 million tonnes, down by 3% year-on-year.
• There were mixed sub-regional trends in Africa, as smaller arrivals to Northern Africa contrasted firm demand elsewhere. At around 850,000 tonnes, 1-15 July imports to Northern Africa were 40% lower year-on-year, largely reflecting smaller arrivals to Algeria and Egypt. Volumes for Morocco and Sudan were also modestly lower than one year earlier, but those for Libya and Tunisia were higher. 
• In contrast, deliveries to Western, Middle and Southern Africa during the first half of July were sharply higher year-on-year. For instance, imports by Western Africa of around 0.7 million tonnes were almost double their year ago level, including larger purchases by Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Mauritania, Nigeria and Senegal. In contrast, no deliveries to date were reported for Guinea and Togo, which imported around 21,000 tonnes and 16,000 tonnes during the first fortnight of the previous marketing year, respectively. 
• At around 150,000 tonnes, 1-15 July imports by Middle Africa were 65% higher year-on-year, mainly owing to strong demand from Angola, the largest sub-regional buyer. 
• The data for Southern Africa indicated sustained import demand from South Africa and Namibia, with combined deliveries to those countries during the first half of July reported at around 200,000 tonnes, an 82% annual rise. 
• Early-season arrivals to Eastern Africa of around 390,000 tonnes were fractionally higher year-on-year, as increases for Djibouti, Mauritius and Tanzania were partly countered by declines for Kenya and Mozambique. 
• Imports by Asia remained generally weak in the new season, with 1-15 July total arrivals seen at 1.7 million tonnes, 17% lower year-on-year. However, the data featured a slight pick up in flows to Western Asia compared to last year. The sub-region received around 400,000 tonnes during the first half of July, with the 4% year-on-year increase chiefly reflecting larger volumes for Iraq, Israel and United Arab Emirates. Conversely, significantly softer early-season demand was noted from Saudi Arabia, Syria and Yemen.
• Among other sub-regions, a steep rise in Central American imports was a notable feature. With Mexico ramping up imports amid poor local supply prospects, 1-15 July arrivals to Central America were 2.5 times higher year-on-year, estimated at around 180,000 tonnes. 

Key insights

Expected arrivals

• As at 15 July 2025, the volume of global cargoes in transit was estimated at around 7.6 million tonnes, around 1.0 million below the level recorded one year earlier. This included around 6.4 million tonnes to specified destinations. The total volume was also around 0.6 million tonnes lower compared to the end of June 2025. 
• The retreat in volumes compared to two weeks earlier largely stemmed from reduced line-ups for Africa, with ongoing flows to the continent estimated at around 1.8 million tonnes, some 1.0 million lower compared to 30 June. The data indicated smaller line-ups to all constituent sub-region, including declines for Angola, Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa – the major sub-Saharan importers.  
• The aggregate line-up for Asia was broadly steady from two weeks before, at around 3.5 million tonnes, including 1.5 million tonnes destined for South-eastern Asia. 
• On the origin-side, Australia and the United States were the leading suppliers for reported cargoes in transit, accounting for 1.4 million tonnes (1.5 million tonnes two weeks earlier) and 1.5 million tonnes (1.3 million tonnes), respectively. A sizable volume of around 1.3 million tonnes originated from Canada, 0.4 million tonnes lower compared to two weeks earlier, with around 1.0 million tonnes coming from the European Union, down by 0.7 million tonnes from 30 June. The line-up from the Russian Federation remained relatively small amid delayed harvest arrivals and slack grower selling, with the volume shown at around 0.5 million tonnes, unchanged from two weeks before. Line-ups from Argentina and Ukraine were reported at 0.3 million tonnes and 0.2 million tonnes, respectively, both figures below their levels as of the end of June. 

Key insights

Exporter line ups

• The data for ongoing port loadings pointed to sustained brisk export activity out of Australia, where around 500,000 tonnes was reportedly being prepared for dispatch. The tally included a combined 130,000 tonnes destined for Thailand, Vietnam and New Zealand, with no destinations specified for the rest of the volume. 
• With the local wheat season (Aug/Jul) drawing to a close, the data for Canada featured only around 30,000 tonnes being loaded for Bangladesh.
• In Argentina, around 90,000 tonnes was expected to be shipped to Brazil.

Key insights

Delivery times (updated at the beginning of each month)

• Calculated journey times (from dispatch to unloading) show that the average delivery period for global wheat shipments over the past three seasons (July/June) was close to one month (27 days). 
• Among net importing sub-regions, Southern Asia and Sothern Africa have the longest delivery periods, averaging 45 and 35 days over the past three seasons, respectively. Average delivery times to Eastern and Middle Africa, as well as other parts of Asia (Eastern, South-eastern and Western Asia) also exceeded 30 days. 
• In contrast, the shortest delivery times were reported for such net importing sub-regions as the Caribbean (19 days, on average), Northern Africa (23 days) and Central America (22 days). 
• At around 27 days, the global average delivery period during the first half of 2025 (January-June) broadly matched the prior three-year average.
• In all Asian sub-regions, average periods for cargoes delivered during January-June 2025 were slightly shorter compared to the previous six months and the three-year average. The most notable improvement was noted for Southern Asia, where average delivery durations retreated to more normal level of around 40 days during January-June 2025 after a spike to over 50 days in the latter half of 2024. The average delivery period during January-June 2025 was also 5 days shorter than the three-year average. 
• Mixed changes were reported in Africa. While average delivery times for Middle and Southern Africa were similar or modestly shorter compared to the recent average, estimated at around 31 and 35 days, respectively, values for other African sub-regions increased slightly during the past six months. For instance, at 23 days, the average delivery period for Western Africa was 3 days longer compared to the latter half of 2024 and the three-season average, in part because of elevated durations for deliveries from North America and the European Union, notably to Cote d’Ivoire, Mauritania and Nigeria. The period also featured an unusually long delivery from the Russian port of Kavkaz to Nigeria, which reportedly took more than 100 days.  
• The slight increase in delivery times to Eastern Africa during the first half of 2025, to around 36 days, was partly tied to an increased share of arrivals from the Russian Federation, notably to Tanzania, which are normally associated with longer journey times, compared to shipments from Argentina and Australia. 
• Although Central America saw some reduction in delivery times during January-June 2025, the average duration of around 27 days was still 5 days longer compared to the prior three-year average, in part reflecting increased delivery periods from the United States and Canada. 

Key insights

Role of trade versus delivery time matrix (updated at the beginning of each month)

SSR matrix

• Some regions, including Western Africa, South-eastern Asia, Middle Africa and the Caribbean, are almost totally reliant on imports for their domestic consumption of wheat, although the absolute volume of wheat consumption in the latter two regions is relatively small compared to other areas. At the same time, South-eastern Asia and Middle Africa have one of the longest average delivery times of around 30 days (based on calculated journey-related data over the past three seasons).

Regional timeline chart

• Calculated indicators show a marginal improvement in production-to-consumption levels in Eastern and Southern Africa over the past decade, with the increase in the former sub-region mainly linked to Ethiopia (from 79% in 2015/16 to 86% in 2024/25) and Zimbabwe (from 31% to 64%). Still, sub-regional numbers indicate that domestic production covers less than half of local consumption for all parts of Africa, with the level for Middle Africa close to zero. 

5-year average chart

• The five-year average production to consumption ratios have declined for most parts of Asia over the past decade, with the largest drop for Eastern Asia, where the indicator slid from the average of around 95% during 2015/16-2019/20 to 88% over the following five years. This mainly reflects a falling ratio for China, from 110% in 2015/16 to 95% in 2024/25.
• Conversely, the level of production-to-consumption has improved markedly for South America and Other Europe over the past five years (largely owing to growing production in Argentina, Brazil and the Russian Federation, respectively), with the former region’s average ratio edging above 100% over the past five years.