Wheat maritime trade & food security

General points – Exports/Imports 

• After a slow start to the calendar year, seaborne wheat flows remained relatively slow in the second half of January, with 16-31 January maritime imports estimated at around 5.4 million tonnes (5.5 million tonnes prior fortnight), the smallest fortnightly volume since late November 2024. The tally was one-fifth below the volume registered over the same period one year ago and the prior three-year average. 
• Despite the recent slowdown in shipments, accumulated global arrivals in the first seven months of the 2024/25 (July/June) marketing year of 80.5 million tonnes remained 1% higher year-on-year, although the volume lagged the there-year average by around 3%. 
• Global wheat flows continued to display mixed trends across the main importing regions, as annual gains in seaborne deliveries to Africa, Europe, South America, the Caribbean and South-eastern Asia were partly countered by reduced arrivals to other parts of Asia. 

Key insights

Imports vs prices/ freight

• As demonstrated by the wheat sub-Index of the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI), average fob prices at key origins ticked higher during the second half of January. Some support came from worries about sub-optimal conditions for 2025/26 crops in the main northern hemisphere producers, while expectations for slowing Black Sea shipments supported ideas of potentially easing export competition in the coming months. Nonetheless, the sub-Index was quoted 7% lower year-on-year as of end-January 2025. 
• There was little improvement in the dry bulk freight market over the past two weeks, as the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Freight Index (GOFI) – a measure of total freight costs on selected grains and oilseeds routes – fell to a more than four-year low towards the end of January, quoted one-quarter lower year-on-year. While recent downside was partly tied to seasonal factors, including impending Lunar New Year festivities in Asia, market sentiment was further dampened by an oversupply of tonnage in most key loading areas.

Bi-weekly / cumulative imports/exports

• Global maritime wheat imports during 16-31 January were estimated at 5.4 million tonnes, slightly below the volume reported during the previous fortnight. The volume was also around one-fifth below the same period last year and the three-year average. While the second half of January featured a marked slowdown in deliveries to South America, Southern Asia and Europe, deliveries elsewhere were generally robust, with larger arrivals reported for most parts of Africa and Eastern Asia. 
• In Africa, the Northern sub-region accounted for the bulk of arrivals during 16-31 January, with around 1.1 million tonnes delivered over the period, slightly above the prior fortnight. According to available shipping data, 2024/25 (July/June) accumulated imports by Northern Africa through end-January 2025 totalled around 16.8 million tonnes, up by 11% year-on-year, with all countries, aside from Tunisia, seen as larger buyers this season. At around 900,000 tonnes, accumulated imports by Tunisia were only fractionally lower year-on-year as of 31 January, as this season’s increased purchases from the Black Sea region (the Russian Federation and Ukraine) did not fully compensate for smaller imports from other origins, notably from the EU. 
• At around 590,000 tonnes, 16-31 January deliveries to Western Africa were 250,000 higher compared to the previous fortnight, taking 2024/25 (July/June) accumulated imports by that sub-region to 6.6 million tonnes, up by 21% year-on-year. The bulk of the annual increase stems from larger purchases by the sub-region’s two leading importers, Nigeria and Cote d’Ivoire, with reported arrivals to date of 3.5 million tonnes (3.0 million tonnes year ago) and 0.7 million tonnes (0.5 million tonnes), respectively. Some other countries across Western Africa have also sourced more compared to last season, but arrivals to Gambia, Guinea and Senegal lag slightly. Cumulative arrivals to Senegal were reported at around 550,000 tonnes as of the end of January (620,000 tonnes year ago), chiefly originating from the EU. 
• Deliveries to other parts of Africa – namely Eastern, Middle and Southern Africa – remained generally robust during the second half of January. With 16-31 January arrivals reported at 320,000 tonnes, 115,000 tonnes and 150,000 tonnes, 2024/25 (July/June) cumulative imports by those sub-regions through the end of January were estimated at 4.4 million tonnes (+15% year-on-year), 1.5 million tonnes (+42%), and 1.4 million tonnes (+25%), respectively. However, the annual increases masked this season’s smaller wheat arrivals to Eritrea, Madagascar, Reunion (Eastern Africa) and Gabon (Middle Africa).  
• Elsewhere, an upturn in deliveries was noted for Eastern Asia after some slowdown in the previous month. An estimated 490,000 tonnes were imported via seaborne routes during 16-31 January, up from 360,000 tonnes in the prior fortnight, mainly reflecting an increase for South Korea. Nonetheless, 2024/25 (July/June) accumulated sub-regional imports as of 31 January of 6.8 million tonnes were 27% lower year-on-year, as imports by China and South Korea continued to trail last season. 
• Deliveries to South-eastern Asia dipped slightly over the past fortnight, to around 900,000 tonnes, but with 2024/25 (July/June) cumulative deliveries of 13.9 million tonnes still 5% above last year. The annual rise is mainly owing to larger imports by Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam, which outweigh softer demand from Indonesia and Malaysia. 
• At around 150,000 tonnes, 16-31 January seaborne imports by Southern Asia marked the smallest fortnightly volume since the start of the July/June season, with accumulated arrivals over the first seven months estimated at 3.7 million tonnes, down by 39% year-on-year. Although generally brisk demand has been reported from Sri Lanka (cumulative imports at 580,000 tonnes, up from 310,000 tonnes year ago), much smaller volumes have been delivered to Iran and Pakistan, with a ban on wheat imports remaining in place in the latter. It should be noted, however, that available shipping data for Iran does not include any possible land shipments, including from the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan. 

Key insights

Expected arrivals

• Although the pace of global seaborne wheat deliveries has been relatively slow since the start of the calendar year, the latest shipping data pointed to the rising volume of cargoes in transit, indicating a likely upturn in arrivals in the coming weeks. 
• As at 31 January 2025, around 11.3 million tonnes of wheat was reported to be in transit around the world, the largest volume since the start of the 2024/25 (July/June) marketing year (10.1 million tonnes two weeks earlier). The tally included 10.1 million tonnes with specified destinations (8.7 million tonnes).
• The upturn in transiting volumes was almost entirely linked to an increased line-up for Asia, which was estimated at 5.1 million tonnes as of 31 January, up 1.0 million tonnes from two weeks earlier. The bulk of the increase reflected larger expected arrivals to South Korea (0.8 million tonnes, up from 0.4 million tonnes a fortnight ago), Bangladesh (0.5 million tonnes, up from 0.3 million tonnes), Vietnam (1.0 million tonnes, up from 0.7 million tonnes), as well as parts of Western Asia (Iraq, Oman, Saudi Arabia). 
• Africa was reported as the destination for around 3.0 million tonnes, little changed from mid-January. Northern Africa was typically the largest recipient, at 1.1 million tonnes, with the bulk destined for Algeria, Egypt and Morocco. This was followed by Western Africa, at around 0.8 million tonnes. Eastern and Southern Africa were each expected to receive around 0.5 million tonnes in the coming weeks, featuring Djibouti (132,000 tonnes), Kenya (183,000 tonnes), Tanzania (154,000 tonnes) and South Africa (380,000 tonnes). Notably, data for Eastern Africa showed no new transiting cargoes to Reunion and Somalia since the start of the calendar year.
• On the exports side, the Russian Federation reclaimed the leading position for transiting cargoes, as the country was reported as the origin for around 1.8 million tonnes, up from 1.3 million tonnes a fortnight ago, but below earlier peaks. This was closely followed by Argentina and Canada, with transiting volumes of 1.7 million tonnes (1.4 million tonnes and 1.8 million tonnes a fortnight ago, respectively). Among other exporters, 1.2 million tonnes was reportedly originating from Australia (1.1 million tonnes), 1.2 million tonnes from the EU (1.1 million tonnes) and 1.1 million tonnes from the United States (0.9 million tonnes). Additionally, around 0.8 million tonnes was reported to be transiting from Brazil (0.5 million tonnes), mainly to South-eastern Asia. 

Key insights

Exporter line ups

• In Canada, the line-up featured current loadings of around 400,000 tonnes, including 290,000 destined for Asia (China, Chinese Taipei, South Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam), with no specified destinations for other cargoes. 
• In Argentina, the port line-up included around 150,000 tonnes expected to be dispatched to Kenya (69,000 tonnes), Cote d’Ivoire (38,000 tonnes), Brazil (23,000 tonnes) and Vietnam (19,000 tonnes). 
• Loadings at Australian ports included around 220,000 tonnes to be dispatched to China (78,000 tonnes) and unspecified destinations. 

Key insights

Delivery times (updated at the beginning of each month)

• Calculated journey times (from dispatch to unloading) show that the average delivery period for global wheat shipments over the past three seasons (Jul/Jun) was close to one month (27 days). 
• Among net importing sub-regions, Southern Asia and Sothern Africa have the longest delivery periods, averaging 41 and 35 days over the past three seasons, respectively. Average delivery times to Eastern Africa and other parts of Asia (Eastern, South-eastern and Western Asia) also exceeded 30 days. In contrast, the shortest delivery times were reported for such net importing sub-regions as the Caribbean and Central America, averaging 18 and 21 days, respectively. 
• At around 27 days, the global average delivery period during July-Nov 2024 was broadly similar to the prior three-year average, but with mixed changes across constituent sub-regions. At around 37 days, delivery times for Eastern Africa were estimated to be 5 days longer than the three-year average. This was largely linked to a longer recent delivery from Ukraine (Chornomorsk) to Somalia (Berbera Port), with the cargo initially partly unloaded in Tunisia. An unusually long unloading time was also reported for a recent cargo from the Russian Federation (Kavkaz) to Djibouti. Longer than normal delivery periods from the EU (Latvia), which used circuitous routes via southern Africa, also contributed to an overall increase in delivery times to Eastern Africa compared to the three-year average.
• Slightly longer than average delivery times were also reported for Western and Middle Africa during July-November 2024, averaging 24 days (23 days during prior three seasons) and 32 days (30 days), respectively. The change for Western Africa was partly tied to an unusual delivery from the US Pacific Coast, with the vessel initially unloading at some destinations in Pacific Asia. The modest increase for Middle Africa mostly stemmed from longer delivery times from the Russian Federation and Ukraine to Angola, and from the European Union to the Republic of the Congo. 
• Although Central America enjoys one of the shortest delivery periods among net importing sub-regions, the average voyage duration to that area during July-November of around 24 days was some 3 days above the prior three-year average, mainly because of longer delivery times from the United States and Canada to Guatemala.    
• Journey times for deliveries to Southern Asia have fluctuated significantly over the past three years. After surging from the normal 32-33 days to more than 50 days during 2023 amid unloading delays at Iranian ports, journey durations retreated in 2024, with the average period during July-November estimated at 38 days.

Key insights

Role of trade versus delivery time matrix (updated at the beginning of each month)

SSR matrix

• Some regions, including Western Africa, South-eastern Asia, Middle Africa and the Caribbean, are almost totally reliant on imports for their domestic consumption of wheat, although the absolute volume of wheat consumption in the latter two regions is relatively small compared to other areas. At the same time, South-eastern Asia and Middle Africa have one of the longest average delivery times of around 30 days (based on calculated journey-related data over the past three seasons).

Regional timeline chart

• Calculated indicators suggest little improvement in production to consumption ratios over the past decade, on average, for some net importing regions, including all parts of Africa. All African regions have average ratios of less than 50%, with particularly low indicators noted for Middle and Western Africa. 

5-year average chart

• The five-year average production to consumption ratios have declined slightly for some parts of Asia over the past decade. Notably, the indicator for Eastern Asia dropped from the average of around 100% during 2014/15-2018/19 to 89% over the following five years, mainly reflecting a falling ratio for China.
• In contrast the level of production-to-consumption improved markedly for South America and Other Europe over the past five years (largely owing to growing production in Argentina, Brazil and the Russian Federation, respectively), with the former region’s average ratio over the past five years reaching 100%.