Wheat maritime trade & food security

Key insights

General points

• At around 5.9 million tonnes, reported seaborne wheat arrivals during the latter half of November were some 15% or 0.8 million tonnes higher compared to the prior fortnight, but 3% below the same period one year ago. This took the full-month volume to 10.3 million tonnes, the lowest since the start of the season and down from 12.4 million tonnes in the month before. 
• Accumulated July-November seaborne imports reached 58.9 million tonnes, 1% higher year-on-year, however as the annual gap continues to narrow (the annual increase was around 25% in July 2023, 12% in September and 6% in October). This season’s cumulative total is lagging the three-year average by 4%. 
• Generally subdued wheat export prices remain supportive for global trade, with the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) touching a fresh two-an-a-half-year low recently, but rising freight costs are seen as a constraint for dry bulk flows. Reflecting firmer voyage costs on the main grains and oilseeds routes, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Freight Index (GOFI) has increased by around one-quarter during November and was up by 21% year-on-year as at the end of the month.
• Preliminary data for exports during 16-30 November included 1.1 million tonnes wheat from each the Russian Federation and the EU, 0.9 million tonnes from Canada and 0.6 million tonnes from Australia. The latest export data also pointed at accelerating shipments from the main South American exporters, namely Argentina and Brazil, where new harvest arrivals have reached export channels. 
• Available data also indicated an upsurge in seaborne deliveries from Ukraine, with more than 0.9 million tonnes reportedly dispatched during the latter half of November, up from 0.2 million tonnes in the prior fortnight, when activity was curbed by heightened security risks. The EU (Italy, Portugal, Spain), Israel, Egypt and Tunisia featured among disclosed destinations, but with at least three cargoes also reportedly destined for China, expected to arrive in the second half of December. 

Bi-weekly cumulative imports/exports

• The recent upturn in seaborne imports was mostly linked to a rebound in deliveries to Western Asia after a slowdown in the first half of the month. The sub-region received around 0.8 million tonnes during 16-30 November, double the prior fortnightly volume, chiefly on increased arrivals to Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Yemen. Still, this season’s cumulative total is 11% lower year-on-year as bi-weekly imports have been trailing last season’s pace since August. The largest year-on-year declines are reported for Jordan, Syria, Turkey and Yemen, albeit the gap for the latter has decreased over the past fortnight owing to fresh deliveries from Australia. At around 1.0 million tonnes, Jul-Nov 2023 imports by Yemen are 18% lower than last year, compared to an annual gap of around 30% a fortnight ago. 
• While cumulative global seaborne imports of 58.9 million tonnes are fractionally higher year-on-year, this masks mixed changes among sub-regions, as stronger purchases by South-eastern Asia (+30% year-on-year to date), the Americas (+15%) and most sub-regions in Africa contrast with slower demand elsewhere, notably in North Africa (-12%), Western Asia (-11%) and Eastern Asia (-8%). 
• At 9.6 million tonnes, accumulated deliveries to South-eastern Asia are around one-third higher year-on-year, but only 4% above the three-year average, which incorporates elevated volumes of the 2020/21 season. While arrivals to most importers in that sub-region exceed last year’s levels, the largest increases are reported for Indonesia (+47%) and Thailand (+105%), which have secured unusually large volumes of Black Sea supplies (Bulgaria, Romania, the Russian Federation) since the start of the season.
• Deliveries elsewhere in Asia are behind last year, albeit as imports to Southern Asia continue to catch up, estimated at 3.9 million tonnes as at the end of November, down by 5% year-on-year (-15% a fortnight before). While reported arrivals to Iran remain slow, shipments to Pakistan have surpassed their year ago level, with an estimated 1.1 million tonnes delivered through November (+10% year-on-year), almost entirely originating from the Black Sea region. Year-on-year increases are also noted for Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, with line ups also dominated by Black Sea origins. 
• Most African sub-regions have boosted their wheat purchases this year, but accumulated imports to North Africa of 11.1 million tonnes remain behind last season (-12%) and 7% below the three-year average. All countries in that sub-region, barring Libya, have been smaller buyers so far this season, with the largest declines for Tunisia (-38%) and Sudan (-55%), albeit the latter is substituting grain purchases with flour supplies from Turkey.  

Key insights

Exports vs prices / freight

• World wheat trade has proved to be resilient in the face of recent market shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and Black Sea hostilities, with no major disruption noted in seaborne bulk shipments. 
• Seasonal trends in trade flows are often shaped by availabilities in key exporters, with volumes typically picking up with northern hemisphere harvests.
• Even though fob export prices scaled multi-year peaks following the outbreak of Black Sea hostilities in early 2022, the decline in shipments during January-June 2022 was broadly comparable to seasonal trends in the prior two marketing years.
• Retreating fob and freight prices underpinned buying interest during the 2022/23 (Jul/Jun) season, with full-year imports some 6% above the prior three-year average level.

Key insights

General points

• At around 5.9 million tonnes, reported seaborne wheat arrivals during the latter half of November were some 15% or 0.8 million tonnes higher compared to the prior fortnight, but 3% below the same period one year ago. This took the full-month volume to 10.3 million tonnes, the lowest since the start of the season and down from 12.4 million tonnes in the month before. 
• Accumulated July-November seaborne imports reached 58.9 million tonnes, 1% higher year-on-year, however as the annual gap continues to narrow (the annual increase was around 25% in July 2023, 12% in September and 6% in October). This season’s cumulative total is lagging the three-year average by 4%. 
• Generally subdued wheat export prices remain supportive for global trade, with the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) touching a fresh two-an-a-half-year low recently, but rising freight costs are seen as a constraint for dry bulk flows. Reflecting firmer voyage costs on the main grains and oilseeds routes, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Freight Index (GOFI) has increased by around one-quarter during November and was up by 21% year-on-year as at the end of the month.
• Preliminary data for exports during 16-30 November included 1.1 million tonnes wheat from each the Russian Federation and the EU, 0.9 million tonnes from Canada and 0.6 million tonnes from Australia. The latest export data also pointed at accelerating shipments from the main South American exporters, namely Argentina and Brazil, where new harvest arrivals have reached export channels. 
• Available data also indicated an upsurge in seaborne deliveries from Ukraine, with more than 0.9 million tonnes reportedly dispatched during the latter half of November, up from 0.2 million tonnes in the prior fortnight, when activity was curbed by heightened security risks. The EU (Italy, Portugal, Spain), Israel, Egypt and Tunisia featured among disclosed destinations, but with at least three cargoes also reportedly destined for China, expected to arrive in the second half of December. 

Bi-weekly cumulative imports/exports

• The recent upturn in seaborne imports was mostly linked to a rebound in deliveries to Western Asia after a slowdown in the first half of the month. The sub-region received around 0.8 million tonnes during 16-30 November, double the prior fortnightly volume, chiefly on increased arrivals to Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Yemen. Still, this season’s cumulative total is 11% lower year-on-year as bi-weekly imports have been trailing last season’s pace since August. The largest year-on-year declines are reported for Jordan, Syria, Turkey and Yemen, albeit the gap for the latter has decreased over the past fortnight owing to fresh deliveries from Australia. At around 1.0 million tonnes, Jul-Nov 2023 imports by Yemen are 18% lower than last year, compared to an annual gap of around 30% a fortnight ago. 
• While cumulative global seaborne imports of 58.9 million tonnes are fractionally higher year-on-year, this masks mixed changes among sub-regions, as stronger purchases by South-eastern Asia (+30% year-on-year to date), the Americas (+15%) and most sub-regions in Africa contrast with slower demand elsewhere, notably in North Africa (-12%), Western Asia (-11%) and Eastern Asia (-8%). 
• At 9.6 million tonnes, accumulated deliveries to South-eastern Asia are around one-third higher year-on-year, but only 4% above the three-year average, which incorporates elevated volumes of the 2020/21 season. While arrivals to most importers in that sub-region exceed last year’s levels, the largest increases are reported for Indonesia (+47%) and Thailand (+105%), which have secured unusually large volumes of Black Sea supplies (Bulgaria, Romania, the Russian Federation) since the start of the season.
• Deliveries elsewhere in Asia are behind last year, albeit as imports to Southern Asia continue to catch up, estimated at 3.9 million tonnes as at the end of November, down by 5% year-on-year (-15% a fortnight before). While reported arrivals to Iran remain slow, shipments to Pakistan have surpassed their year ago level, with an estimated 1.1 million tonnes delivered through November (+10% year-on-year), almost entirely originating from the Black Sea region. Year-on-year increases are also noted for Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, with line ups also dominated by Black Sea origins. 
• Most African sub-regions have boosted their wheat purchases this year, but accumulated imports to North Africa of 11.1 million tonnes remain behind last season (-12%) and 7% below the three-year average. All countries in that sub-region, barring Libya, have been smaller buyers so far this season, with the largest declines for Tunisia (-38%) and Sudan (-55%), albeit the latter is substituting grain purchases with flour supplies from Turkey.  

Key insights

Expected arrivals

• Volumes in transit as at the end of November were up sharply compared to two weeks earlier, estimated at 10.6 million tonnes (9.2 million tonnes as at mid-November), including 8.3 million tonnes with known destinations. 
• Almost one-half of the total was destined to Asia, including 1.6 million tonnes to Eastern Asia and 1.5 million tonnes to South-eastern Asia, with the bulk originating from Australia, Canada and the United States. Notably, the former sub-region featured rising volumes to China, with some cargoes reported to be originating from Ukraine. 
• Line ups for Africa remain strong, exceeding 2.0 million tonnes in total, mostly destined for Northern and Eastern Africa, expected to receive 1.0 million tonnes and 0.7 million tonnes, respectively. However, the data indicates subsiding transiting volumes to Nigeria and Mozambique. 

Key insights

Exporter line ups

• Reported current loadings as at the end of November included a Panamax vessel for Tanzania and a Supramax cargo for Syria, both loaded at the Russian port of Novorossiysk. 

Key insights

Delivery times (updated at the beginning of each month)

• Calculated journey times (from dispatch to unloading) show that the average delivery period for global wheat shipments over the past three seasons (Jul/Jun) was close to one month (27 days). 
• Among net importing sub-regions, Southern Asia, Sothern Africa and Middle Africa have the longest delivery periods, averaging 40, 34 and 32 days over the past three seasons, respectively. The shortest delivery times are noted for such net importers as the Caribbean and Central America, totalling 19 days, on average. 
• At around 27 days, the global average delivery period during July-November 2023 was similar to the average for the prior three years. However, longer than normal deliveries were reported for Southern Africa, averaging 45 days (three-year average at 34 days), which was mostly linked to relatively longer journeys from the EU (Romania) to South Africa. In contrast, delivery times for Southern Asia have receded to more normal levels in recent months after spiking during the first half of 2023, when unloading delays were reported at Iranian ports.
• An upturn in average delivery periods was noted for Western Asia during the past five months, to around 33 days (prior three-year average at 27 days). This was largely tied to longer than normal deliveries from the Russian Federation’s ports of Kavkaz and Novorossiysk. 

Key insights

Role of trade versus delivery time matrix (updated at the beginning of each month)

• Some regions, including Western Africa, South-eastern Asia, Middle Africa and the Caribbean, are almost totally reliant on imports for their domestic consumption of wheat, although the absolute volume of wheat consumption in the latter two regions is relatively small compared to other areas. At the same time, South-eastern Asia and Middle Africa have one of the longest average delivery times at 31 and 32 days, respectively (based on calculated journey-related data over the past three seasons).

Regional timeline chart

• Calculated indicators suggest little improvement in production to consumption ratios over the past decade, on average, for some net importing regions, including all parts of Africa. All African regions have average ratios of less than 50%. 

5-year average chart

• The five-year average production to consumption ratios have declined slightly for some parts of Asia over the past decade, but improved markedly for South America and Other Europe (largely owing to growing production in Argentina, Brazil and Russia, respectively), with the former region’s average ratio over the past five years reaching 100%.