Wheat maritime trade & food security

General points – Exports/Imports 

• Chiefly linked to rising deliveries to parts of Africa, global wheat seaborne trade flows continued to increase during the second half of February 2025. At 6.2 million tonnes, the volume of imports to monitored ports marked the largest bi-weekly figure since the start of the calendar year, also exceeding the volume over the same period of last year by 12% (and up by 9% from the comparable three-year average). 
• The accelerated pace of shipments over the past two weeks helped to narrow the lag in 2024/25 (July/June) accumulated global deliveries to date, with the volume during the first eight months of the season estimated at 91.8 million tonnes, down by 1% year-on-year. The tally was also 4% below the three-year average level. 
• The 1% annual gap in cumulative global imports to date is primarily linked to slower purchases by parts of Asia (total Asian imports down by 18% year-on-year as of the end of February), which outweigh brisk demand from other regions, including Africa (total deliveries up by 12% year-on year). 

Key insights

Imports vs prices/ freight

• Signs of subsiding weather–related risks for northern hemisphere crops saw average global wheat export prices ease slightly during the latter half of February. Although slowing Russia’s shipments buoyed exporter sentiment at some competing origins, traders also noted accelerating deliveries from southern hemisphere suppliers. Recent price movements were reflected by changes in the wheat sub-Index of the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI), which declined to a one-month low by the end of February, with values quoted 4% lower year-on-year.
• In contrast, freight costs (including fuel) for grains and oilseeds dispatches continued to rise in the second half of February, as evidenced by the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Freight Index (GOFI), which tracks expenses on selected key routes. Reflecting gains at all major origins, the Index reached a one-month high in the second half of February, before retreating slightly in the past few days, chiefly because of softening marine fuel prices. The GOFI was quoted 16% lower year-on-year as at end-February, with the largest annual declines recorded in Brazil and the Black Sea region. 

Bi-weekly / cumulative imports/exports

• Global seaborne wheat deliveries reached 6.2 million tonnes during 16-28 February, a two-month high and up by 12% year-on-year. The increase was mainly tied to larger arrivals to Africa, notably to Northern Africa, as well as South-eastern Asia. 
• Northern Africa received around 1.6 million tonnes during the second half of February, the MY2024/25 (July/June) high and up from 1.1 million tonnes during the prior fortnight. All countries in that sub-region, except for Algeria, saw larger arrivals over the past two weeks, but with the bulk of the increase attributed to Egypt, which saw arrivals of around 0.8 million tonnes (0.4 million tonnes during the prior fortnight). Consequently, the country’s imports to date reached 7.1 million tonnes, up by 0.8 million tonnes year-on-year (actual deliveries could be higher, as shipping data may not fully capture coaster vessel deliveries). With annual increases for all countries, barring Tunisia, total imports by Northern Africa through February of 18.9 million tonnes were 7% higher year-on year and broadly matched the three-year average level. 
• Imports to Middle Africa also surged during the latter half of February, reaching around 200,000 tonnes, up almost four times from the prior fortnight. The increase was mainly linked to Angola, the largest importer in that sub-region, which received around 140,000 tonnes during 16-28 February, taking 2024/25 (July/June) imports to 0.9 million tonnes (0.6 million tonnes one year ago). An upturn in deliveries was also noted for the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Republic of the Congo, with both importers securing larger volumes to date compared to last season. It should be noted, however, that no imports were reported for Gabon since the start of the season (around 14,000 tonnes one year ago). 
• A marked upswing in bi-weekly seaborne imports was reported for Southern Africa, to 180,000 tonnes (90,000 tonnes prior fortnight), chiefly due to fresh volumes from Australia and the EU (Lithuania) to South Africa. Accumulated 2024/25 (July/June) maritime imports by that country as of the end of February were estimated at 1.4 million tonnes (1.2 million tonnes one year ago), with this season’s reduced imports from the EU outweighed by increased purchases from other origins, notably from the Russian Federation and Australia. With imports by Namibia also running ahead of last season, total arrivals to Southern Africa as of 28 February were estimated at 1.6 million tonnes, up by one-third year-on-year. 
• A slight increase in arrivals to South-eastern Asia over the past two weeks, to 1.2 million tonnes (1.0 million tonnes during prior fortnight), mainly reflected larger volumes for the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. At 16.1 million tonnes, accumulated imports by that sub-region remained modestly higher year-on-year (up by 4%), chiefly owing to brisk demand from those three countries. In contrast, imports by Indonesia continued to trail last season’s unusually strong pace, with deliveries to date estimated at 6.3 million tonnes, down by 0.9 million tonnes year-on-year. Cumulative imports by other countries in that sub-region, namely by Malaysia, Myanmar and Singapore, were only modestly lower year-on-year as of the end of February. 
• Steady deliveries were reported to Eastern and Western Africa during the past fortnight, estimated at 0.2 million tonnes and 0.4 million tonnes, lifting 2024/25 (July/June) cumulative imports to 4.7 million tonnes (up by 13% year-on-year) and 7.3 million tonnes (up by 16%), respectively. Most countries in those sub-regions have been larger buyers this season, however, annual declines were reported for Eritrea, Madagascar, Reunion, Somalia, Gambia, Guinea and Senegal. 
• Imports by Eastern and Western Asia were also little-changed compared to the prior fortnight, with each region estimated to have received around 0.6 million tonnes during 16-28 February. At 8.0 million tonnes and 8.6 million tonnes, 2024/25 (July/June) accumulated imports by Eastern and Western Asia through end-February were down by 28% and 23% year-on-year, led by declines for China and Turkey, respectively. 
• With just around 50,000 tonnes delivered from Australia to India, bi-weekly shipments to Southern Asia were the lowest since the start of the July/June season (125,000 tonnes prior fortnight). 2024/25 sub-regional imports of 4.2 million tonnes were down by 43% year-on-year as of 28 February, due to reduced seaborne imports by Bangladesh, Iran and, most notably, Pakistan.  

Key insights

Expected arrivals

• The global volume of cargoes in transit receded from earlier elevated levels towards the end of February, to 8.6 million tonnes (11.0 million tonnes as of mid-February), including 7.7 million tonnes with specified destinations (9.6 million tonnes).
• The 2.4-million tonne drop in global transiting volumes compared to mid-February included sizable declines for both Africa (down by 1.1 million tonnes, to 2.3 million tonnes) and Asia (down by 1.0 million tonnes, to 3.9 million tonnes). 
• For Africa, reduced line ups were noted for all sub-regions, mainly due to reduced flows to Tanzania (Eastern Africa), Nigeria (Western Africa), Egypt, Morocco (Northern Africa) and Angola (Middle Africa). 
• Mixed trends were noted across Asia, as lower cargo transits for Eastern Asia (mainly China, Japan, South Korea) and Western Asia (chiefly Saudi Arabia and Yemen), contrasted with a rebound in volumes for Southern Asia, primarily reflecting increased line ups for Bangladesh and Iran. 
• On the export side, Canada was reported to be the leading origin for cargoes in transit, at 1.6 million tonnes (1.5 million tonnes two weeks earlier), closely followed by Argentina at 1.6 million tonnes (1.6 million tonnes). The EU was reported as the origin for around 0.9 million tonnes of transiting cargoes (1.2 million tonnes), with volumes from Australia and the United States totalling 0.9 million tonnes (1.2 million tonnes) and 0.8 million tonnes (1.1 million tonnes), respectively. Brazil was reported as the origin for around 0.8 million tonnes (1.1 million tonnes), while only 0.5 million tonnes was reportedly originating from the Russian Federation (1.4 million tonnes). 

Key insights

Exporter line ups

• Sustained brisk loadings were reported at Argentine ports, including around 200,000 tonnes destined for Africa (Morocco, Togo), South America (Brazil, Venezuela) and the Caribbean (Puerto Rico). 
• In Australia, the port line-up included around 300,000 tonnes destined for South-eastern Asia (Indonesia, Vietnam, Chinese Taipei), as well as Morocco and unspecified destinations. 
• In Canada, around 300,000 tonnes were reportedly being prepared for shipping to China (77,000 tonnes), Indonesia (78,000 tonnes), Thailand (55,000 tonnes) and other destinations. 
• Brazil was expected to dispatch around 74,000 tonnes for Vietnam. 

Key insights

Delivery times (updated at the beginning of each month)

• Calculated journey times (from dispatch to unloading) show that the average delivery period for global wheat shipments over the past three seasons (Jul/Jun) was close to one month (27 days). 
• Among net importing sub-regions, Southern Asia and Sothern Africa have the longest delivery periods, averaging 41 and 35 days over the past three seasons, respectively. Average delivery times to Eastern Africa and other parts of Asia (Eastern, South-eastern and Western Asia) also exceeded 30 days. In contrast, the shortest delivery times were reported for such net importing sub-regions as the Caribbean and Central America, averaging 18 and 21 days, respectively. 
• At around 27 days, the global average delivery period during July-Nov 2024 was broadly similar to the prior three-year average, but with mixed changes across constituent sub-regions. At around 37 days, delivery times for Eastern Africa were estimated to be 5 days longer than the three-year average. This was largely linked to a longer recent delivery from Ukraine (Chornomorsk) to Somalia (Berbera Port), with the cargo initially partly unloaded in Tunisia. An unusually long unloading time was also reported for a recent cargo from the Russian Federation (Kavkaz) to Djibouti. Longer than normal delivery periods from the EU (Latvia), which used circuitous routes via southern Africa, also contributed to an overall increase in delivery times to Eastern Africa compared to the three-year average.
• Slightly longer than average delivery times were also reported for Western and Middle Africa during July-November 2024, averaging 24 days (23 days during prior three seasons) and 32 days (30 days), respectively. The change for Western Africa was partly tied to an unusual delivery from the US Pacific Coast, with the vessel initially unloading at some destinations in Pacific Asia. The modest increase for Middle Africa mostly stemmed from longer delivery times from the Russian Federation and Ukraine to Angola, and from the European Union to the Republic of the Congo. 
• Although Central America enjoys one of the shortest delivery periods among net importing sub-regions, the average voyage duration to that area during July-November of around 24 days was some 3 days above the prior three-year average, mainly because of longer delivery times from the United States and Canada to Guatemala.    
• Journey times for deliveries to Southern Asia have fluctuated significantly over the past three years. After surging from the normal 32-33 days to more than 50 days during 2023 amid unloading delays at Iranian ports, journey durations retreated in 2024, with the average period during July-November estimated at 38 days.

Key insights

Role of trade versus delivery time matrix (updated at the beginning of each month)

SSR matrix

• Some regions, including Western Africa, South-eastern Asia, Middle Africa and the Caribbean, are almost totally reliant on imports for their domestic consumption of wheat, although the absolute volume of wheat consumption in the latter two regions is relatively small compared to other areas. At the same time, South-eastern Asia and Middle Africa have one of the longest average delivery times of around 30 days (based on calculated journey-related data over the past three seasons).

Regional timeline chart

• Calculated indicators suggest little improvement in production to consumption ratios over the past decade, on average, for some net importing regions, including all parts of Africa. All African regions have average ratios of less than 50%, with particularly low indicators noted for Middle and Western Africa. 

5-year average chart

• The five-year average production to consumption ratios have declined slightly for some parts of Asia over the past decade. Notably, the indicator for Eastern Asia dropped from the average of around 100% during 2014/15-2018/19 to 89% over the following five years, mainly reflecting a falling ratio for China.
• In contrast the level of production-to-consumption improved markedly for South America and Other Europe over the past five years (largely owing to growing production in Argentina, Brazil and the Russian Federation, respectively), with the former region’s average ratio over the past five years reaching 100%.