Wheat maritime trade & food security

General points – Exports/Imports 

• A typical late-season slowdown in maritime shipments was observed in the wheat market over the first half of June, with global seaborne deliveries during 1-15 June estimated at 5.1 million tonnes, 1.1 million tonnes lower compared to the prior fortnight and the smallest bi-weekly volume since the start of the 2024/25 (July/June) marketing year. 
• Global arrivals during 1-15 June were also 13% below the volume registered over the same period last season and 11% short of the prior three-year average. Consequently, cumulative world maritime imports since 1 July 2024 reached 134.4 million tonnes, down by 8% year-on-year and 6% below the recent average. 
• The latest available shipping data confirmed a sizable annual lag in imports by Asia, estimated at a cumulative 54.9 million tonnes as at 15 June (-24% year-on-year). This was only partly compensated by larger deliveries to other regions, including Africa, which received 49.9 million tonnes since the start of the season, a 5% annual rise. 

Key insights

Imports vs prices/ freight

• In spite of building northern hemisphere harvest pressure, average global wheat export prices moved slightly higher during the first half of June, with unfavourable cropping weather noted in some major producers, including in China, the Russian Federation and the US. Prices were also underpinned by news of escalating Black Sea hostilities, albeit with the wheat sub-Index of the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI), which tracks fob prices at key origins, still down by 6% year-on-year as of mid-June. 
• The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Freight Index (GOFI) – a measure of total voyage costs on key grains and oilseeds routes – pointed to a modest uptick in average freight rates since the start of June. Recent strength was chiefly tied to robust interest for minerals and grans shipments in the Atlantic. Still, the GOFI was quoted 11% lower year-on-year as of mid-June, with the largest annual declines on routes out of South America and Australia. 

Bi-weekly / cumulative imports/exports

• Slowing deliveries to parts of Africa were a notable feature of global wheat trade during the first half of June. Amid tightening supplies at key Black Sea origins, 1-15 June seaborne deliveries to Northern Africa receded to around 880,000 tonnes (1.1 million tonnes prior fortnight), the lowest bi-weekly volume since the start of the 2024/25 (July/June) season, with declines reported across all constituent countries, barring Sudan. Following the recent slowdown, 2024/25 accumulated arrivals to Northern Africa of 27.7 million tonnes were 1% lower year-on-year as of mid-June, with annual gains for Algeria, Morocco and Sudan outweighed by smaller purchases by other importers, notably by Egypt. 
• Imports by Eastern Africa also dropped sharply during 1-15 June, to around 180,000 tonnes (415,000 tonnes prior fortnight), the smallest by-weekly tally in three months. Marketing year accumulated deliveries by that sub-region reached 6.5 million tonnes by 15 June, down fractionally year-on-year. Mozambique and Tanzania have been larger buyers this season, most notably from Australia, Canada and the Russian Federation, while other countries in Eastern Africa have secured smaller volumes to date compared to last year, with the largest declines noted for Djibouti, Kenya and Reunion. 
• Arrivals to South America also slowed during the past two weeks, dropping to around 480,000 tonnes (600,000 tonnes prior fortnight), in part reflecting reduced flows from Canada and the United States to Colombia, Ecuador and Venezuela. Nonetheless, the sub-regional total of 13.2 million tonnes was up by 11% year-on-year as of mid-June, largely owing to sizable annual increases in seaborne imports by Brazil and Ecuador.
• Among other sub-regions, flows to South-eastern Asia also subsided, with around 920,000 tonnes delivered during the first half of June (1.0 million tonnes prior fortnight), taking 2024/25 cumulative imports to 23.2 million tonnes, 5% lower year-on-year.
• Little improvement in deliveries was noted for Southern Asia, which received around 230,000 tonnes over the past two weeks (255,000 tonnes prior fortnight), mainly destined for Iran. Reflecting this season’s reduced seaborne shipments to Bangladesh, Iran and Pakistan, total deliveries to that sub-region totalled only 6.1 million tonnes as at mid-June, 47% lower year-on-year.
• In contrast, increased wheat flows were noted to Western Asia, including to Israel, Qatar, Turkey and Yemen. Notably, deliveries to Turkey picked up following the lifting of import restrictions in March 2025, but 2024/25 full-season imports are still expected to post a sharp year-on-year decline. Deliveries to most other countries in Western Asia are also estimated to be smaller than last season, with the largest declines for Iraq, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. At around 13.2 million tonnes, 2024/25 (July/June) cumulative imports by Western Asia were 22% below last season as at 15 June. 

Key insights

Expected arrivals

• At around 9.4 million tonnes, the volume of global cargoes in transit as at mid-June was only slightly below the level seen at the start of the month, including 8.3 million tonnes with specified destinations (8.6 million tonnes as of end-May).
• The latest data pointed to a marked reduction in maritime flows to Asia, with the aggregated line-up of around 3.6 million tonnes, 0.6 million tonnes lower than two weeks earlier. The bulk of the decline was attributed to Western Asia, where smaller line-ups were reported for Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, only partly offset by new cargoes transiting to Yemen. At 240,000 tonnes, the volume of expected arrivals to Yemen was the largest since February 2025, with cargoes mostly originating from Australia and the Russian Federation. 
• The line-up for Africa rose slightly from the start of June, reaching 3.2 million tonnes (3.0 million tonnes two weeks earlier). This primarily reflected increased volumes for South Africa (the line-up of 260,000 tonnes, mainly from Australia) and Nigeria (550,000 tonnes, from Canada, the EU, the United States and the Russian Federation). 
• Canada remained the leading origin for reported cargoes in transit, accounting for around 2.1 million tonnes, up modestly from the start of June. This was followed by Australia at 1.7 million tonnes, 0.4 million tonnes higher than two weeks earlier.  Around 1.3 million tonnes originated from the United States (1.7 million tonnes two weeks before), closely followed by the EU at 1.2 million tonnes (1.2 million tonnes). The line-up from the Russian Federation dropped to around 0.8 million tonnes from 1.3 million tonnes at the start of June. Line-ups from Argentina and Ukraine increased to 490,000 tonnes (440,000 tonnes) and 425,000 tonnes (260,000 tonnes), respectively. 

Key insights

Exporter line ups

• The line-up at Australian ports increased markedly over the first half of June, exceeding 650,000 tonnes (450,000 tonnes as of end-May). While around 180,000 tonnes was for unspecified destinations, the total volume also included 225,000 tonnes for Eastern Asia (South Korea, Japan) and 245,000 tonnes for South-eastern Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines). 
• In contrast, the port line-up in Canada declined, estimated at around 122,000 tonnes (300,000 tonnes fortnight before). The total included cargoes destined for Morocco, El Salvador, Chile, and South Korea. 

Key insights

Delivery times (updated at the beginning of each month)

• Calculated journey times (from dispatch to unloading) show that the average delivery period for global wheat shipments over the past three seasons (Jul/Jun) was close to one month (27 days). 
• Among net importing sub-regions, Southern Asia and Sothern Africa have the longest delivery periods, averaging 45 and 35 days over the past three seasons, respectively. Average delivery times to Eastern and Middle Africa and other parts of Asia (Eastern, South-eastern and Western Asia) also exceeded 30 days. In contrast, the shortest delivery times were reported for such net importing sub-regions as the Caribbean (18 days, on average), Northern Africa (22 days) and Central America (22 days). 
• At around 30 days, the global average delivery period during the first quarter (January-March) of 2025 was slightly above the prior three-year average, with significantly longer journey times reported for Southern and Western Asia, Central and North America, as well as parts of Africa. 
• At 37 days, average delivery times to Eastern Africa were estimated to be 4 days longer than the three-year average. This was partly tied to an increased share of deliveries from the Russian Federation, notably to Kenya and Tanzania, which are normally associated with longer journey times, compared to shipments from Argentina and Australia. 
• Longer than average delivery times were also reported for Western Africa during January-March 2025, averaging 30 days (23 days during prior three seasons). The increase partly reflected unusually long delivery times from Australia to Ghana, as well as elevated duration for deliveries to Nigeria and Cote d’Ivoire. 
• Although Central America enjoys one of the shortest delivery periods among net importing sub-regions, the average voyage duration to that area during January-March 2025 of around 28 days was 6 days above the prior three-year average, partly owing to increased delivery durations from the US and Canada to El Salvador and Guatemala. 
• Journey times for deliveries to Southern Asia have fluctuated significantly over the past three years. After surging from the normal 34-35 days to more than 50 days during 2023 amid unloading delays at Iranian ports, journey durations retreated to around 42 days in the first half of 2024, but increased again more recently, with the average journey time during January-March 2025 estimated at 57 days. Similar to some earlier periods, the first quarter of 2025 featured unusually long delivery times from the Russian Federation (Kavkaz) to Iran (Bandar Imam Khomeini), reaching four months in some cases. 

Key insights

Role of trade versus delivery time matrix (updated at the beginning of each month)

SSR matrix

• Some regions, including Western Africa, South-eastern Asia, Middle Africa and the Caribbean, are almost totally reliant on imports for their domestic consumption of wheat, although the absolute volume of wheat consumption in the latter two regions is relatively small compared to other areas. At the same time, South-eastern Asia and Middle Africa have one of the longest average delivery times of around 30 days (based on calculated journey-related data over the past three seasons).

Regional timeline chart

• Calculated indicators suggest little improvement in production to consumption ratios over the past decade, on average, for some net importing regions, including all parts of Africa. All African regions have average ratios of less than 50%, with particularly low indicators noted for Middle and Western Africa. 

5-year average chart

• The five-year average production to consumption ratios have declined slightly for some parts of Asia over the past decade. Notably, the indicator for Eastern Asia dropped from the average of around 100% during 2014/15-2018/19 to 89% over the following five years, mainly reflecting a falling ratio for China.
• In contrast the level of production-to-consumption improved markedly for South America and Other Europe over the past five years (largely owing to growing production in Argentina, Brazil and the Russian Federation, respectively), with the former region’s average ratio over the past five years reaching 100%.