Wheat maritime trade & food security

General points – Exports/Imports 

• Maritime wheat trade flows remained seasonally subdued during the second half of June, which marked the end of the 2024/25 July/June marketing year. At around 4.9 million tonnes, the volume of global seaborne arrivals during 16-30 June was modestly above the prior fortnight’s downwardly adjusted estimate, but fell 16% short of the same period last season.
• The preliminary data showed 2024/25 (July/June) full-season global imports at around 139.0m t, down by 8% year-on-year and 6% short of the three-year average. It should be noted that the volume does not include land or container shipments, while the coverage of relatively small coaster deliveries may be incomplete, especially for the Black Sea region. 
• The 8% annual decline in global seaborne trade is primarily tied to reduced import needs in parts of Asia, notably in Eastern (-36% year-on-year), Southern (-47%) and Western (-23%) sub-regions. Deliveries to Northern Africa, as well as to Central and North America, are also estimated to be lower than last year, but arrivals elsewhere have increased, led by parts of Africa. 

Key insights

Imports vs prices/ freight

• In spite of persistent northern hemisphere weather risks, average global wheat export prices edged lower during the last half of June, amid mounting seasonal harvest pressure. Although heightened hostilities in the Middle East added to price volatility at times, the wheat sub-Index of the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI), which gauges export (fob) prices at major origins, was down by 2% year-on-year as of the end of the month. 
• In contrast to commodity prices, voyage freight costs – tracked by the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Freight Index (GOFI) – posted a sizable increase during 16-30 June, primarily linked to firmer marine fuel prices. Nonetheless, the Index was 8% lower year-on-year as of 30 June, with the largest annual declines noted on routes out of South America and the Black Sea region. 

Bi-weekly / cumulative imports/exports

• Deliveries to parts of Africa saw a late-season upturn during the latter half of June, with arrivals to the Northern sub-region rebounding to around 1.0 million tonnes (850,000 tonnes previous fortnight), on increased purchases by Egypt. Still, at an estimated 9.7 million tonnes, the country’s full-year imports were some 1.5 million tonnes lower than last season. With this decline only partly offset by larger deliveries to other countries, notably to Morocco and Sudan, total sub-regional imports were 2% lower year-on-year as of end-June, at 28.7 million tonnes. 
• Largely reflecting increased flows to Kenya and Mozambique, deliveries to Eastern Africa during 16-30 June increased sharply compared to the previous fortnight, reaching around 400,000 tonnes (147,000 tonnes previous two weeks). This took full-year sub-regional imports to around 6.9 million tonnes, broadly unchanged year-on-year, with larger purchases by Mozambique and Tanzania countered by reduced deliveries to other destinations. 
• Arrivals to Southern Africa also posted a marked increase during 16-30 June, as demand from South Africa remained firm. With the country’s full-season imports pegged at around 2.0 million tonnes (1.8 million tonnes previous season), total sub-regional imports – also including Namibia – were reported at around 2.3 million tonnes, up by 18% year-on-year. 
• Although arrivals to Western and Middle Africa subsided during the latter half of June, full-season imports by those sub-regions of 11.3 million tonnes and 2.6 million tonnes were estimated to be 16% and 39% higher year-on-year, respectively. Although most countries have increased purchases in 2024/25, some importers have sourced smaller wheat volumes, including Guinea, Senegal in Western Africa, and Gabon in Middle Africa. 
• 16-30 June imports by Eastern and South-eastern Asia held broadly steady compared to the previous two weeks, estimated at around 0.6 million tonnes and 0.8 million tonnes, respectively. Consequently, full-season arrivals to Eastern Asia reached 12.7 million tonnes, down by 36% year-on-year, chiefly tied to smaller deliveries to China. 2024/25 arrivals to South-eastern Asia totalled around 24.0 million tonnes as of the end of June, a 6% annual drop, including softer import demand from Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines. 
• The last fortnight of the 2024/25 July/June season featured a sharp drop in deliveries to Southern Asia, as arrivals to Iran retreated after the spike in the fortnight before. With all countries in that sub-region, barring Sri Lanka, reducing their purchases this season, aggregate imports by Southern Asia were estimated at 6.3 million tonnes as at end-June, only around one-half of the previous year’s volume.
• 16-30 June deliveries to Western Asia also declined from the fortnight before, primarily linked to Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Yemen, while full-season sub-regional imports reached 13.5 million tonnes, down by almost one-quarter year-on-year.  While many countries in Western Asia have been smaller buyers this season, in part owing to adequate domestic availabilities, the largest annual decline was reported for Turkey.

Key insights

Expected arrivals

• In line with seasonal trends, the volume of global cargoes in transit subsided during the latter half of June, estimated at around 8.2 million tonnes, 1.2 million tonnes lower than two weeks earlier. The total included 7.3 million tonnes with specified destinations (8.3 million tonnes as of mid-June).
• With the aggregate line-up for Asia broadly steady from two weeks before, at around 3.6 million tonnes, the recent decline in global transits was mainly tied to reduced flows to Africa and South America. 
• The line-up for Africa dropped by around 0.4 million tonnes from mid-June, to around 2.8 million tonnes, on retreating volumes for Eastern Africa (mainly Kenya and Mozambique) and Northern Africa (chiefly Algeria and Egypt). Nonetheless, the data also pointed to increased volumes for Middle Africa (primarily Angola) and Western Africa (mainly Cote d’Ivoire and Senegal).
• Canada and the European Union were the leading origins for reported cargoes in transit, each accounting for around 1.7 million tonnes (2.1 million tonnes and 1.2 million tonnes as of mid-June, respectively). This was followed by Australia at 1.5 million tonnes, 0.2 million tonnes lower compared to two weeks earlier. Around 1.0 million tonnes originated from the United States (1.3 million tonnes two weeks before). The line-up from the Russian Federation dropped further, to around 0.5 million tonnes (0.8 tonnes as at mid-June). Line-ups from Argentina and Ukraine also retreated after an earlier upturn, falling to 400,000 tonnes (490,000 tonnes) and 340,000 tonnes (425,000 tonnes), respectively.

Key insights

Exporter line ups

• A moderate decline was reported in the line-up at Australian ports, with around 420,000 tonnes loading as at end-June, down from 650,000 tonnes two weeks earlier. The tally included 175,000 tonnes for Eastern Asia (China, Japan, South Korea), 92,000 tonnes for South-eastern Asia (Indonesia, the Philippines) and around 150,000 tonnes for unspecified destinations. 
• A further decline was reported in loading volumes in Canada, with data showing only 88,000 tonnes, including for Algeria (122,000 tonnes two weeks earlier).
• In Argentina, around 60,000 tonnes was reportedly loading for Brazil and Chile, while in the EU, the line-up included around 130,000 tonnes, mostly destined for Africa.

Key insights

Delivery times (updated at the beginning of each month)

• Calculated journey times (from dispatch to unloading) show that the average delivery period for global wheat shipments over the past three seasons (July/June) was close to one month (27 days). 
• Among net importing sub-regions, Southern Asia and Sothern Africa have the longest delivery periods, averaging 45 and 35 days over the past three seasons, respectively. Average delivery times to Eastern and Middle Africa, as well as other parts of Asia (Eastern, South-eastern and Western Asia) also exceeded 30 days. 
• In contrast, the shortest delivery times were reported for such net importing sub-regions as the Caribbean (19 days, on average), Northern Africa (23 days) and Central America (22 days). 
• At around 27 days, the global average delivery period during the first half of 2025 (January-June) broadly matched the prior three-year average. 
• In all Asian sub-regions, average periods for cargoes delivered during January-June 2025 were slightly shorter compared to the previous six months and the three-year average. The most notable improvement was noted for Southern Asia, where average delivery durations retreated to more normal level of around 40 days during January-June 2025 after a spike to over 50 days in the latter half of 2024. The average delivery period during January-June 2025 was also 5 days shorter than the three-year average. 
• Mixed changes were reported in Africa. While average delivery times for Middle and Southern Africa were similar or modestly shorter compared to the recent average, estimated at around 31 and 35 days, respectively, values for other African sub-regions increased slightly during the past six months. For instance, at 23 days, the average delivery period for Western Africa was 3 days longer compared to the latter half of 2024 and the three-season average, in part because of elevated durations for deliveries from North America and the European Union, notably to Cote d’Ivoire, Mauritania and Nigeria. The period also featured an unusually long delivery from the Russian port of Kavkaz to Nigeria, which reportedly took more than 100 days.  
• The slight increase in delivery times to Eastern Africa during the first half of 2025, to around 36 days, was partly tied to an increased share of arrivals from the Russian Federation, notably to Tanzania, which are normally associated with longer journey times, compared to shipments from Argentina and Australia. 
• Although Central America saw some reduction in delivery times during January-June 2025, the average duration of around 27 days was still 5 days longer compared to the prior three-year average, in part reflecting increased delivery periods from the United States and Canada. 

Key insights

Role of trade versus delivery time matrix (updated at the beginning of each month)

SSR matrix

• Some regions, including Western Africa, South-eastern Asia, Middle Africa and the Caribbean, are almost totally reliant on imports for their domestic consumption of wheat, although the absolute volume of wheat consumption in the latter two regions is relatively small compared to other areas. At the same time, South-eastern Asia and Middle Africa have one of the longest average delivery times of around 30 days (based on calculated journey-related data over the past three seasons).

Regional timeline chart

• Calculated indicators suggest little improvement in production to consumption ratios over the past decade, on average, for some net importing regions, including all parts of Africa. All African regions have average ratios of less than 50%, with particularly low indicators noted for Middle and Western Africa. 

5-year average chart

• The five-year average production to consumption ratios have declined slightly for some parts of Asia over the past decade. Notably, the indicator for Eastern Asia dropped from the average of around 100% during 2014/15-2018/19 to 89% over the following five years, mainly reflecting a falling ratio for China.
• In contrast the level of production-to-consumption improved markedly for South America and Other Europe over the past five years (largely owing to growing production in Argentina, Brazil and the Russian Federation, respectively), with the former region’s average ratio over the past five years reaching 100%.