Wheat maritime trade & food security

General points – Exports/Imports

In spite of reported logistical challenges at some northern hemisphere exporters, global seaborne wheat trade progressed steadily in January, with cumulative imports since the start of the July/June season up by 3% compared to one year ago. A sharp increase in flows of competitively-priced Argentine wheat, notably to Asia, was a remarkable recent feature, with deliveries to that region up 16% year-on-year as of the end of January. In contrast, arrivals to Africa continue to lag last season, estimated to be 2% lower year-on-year. 

• At 12.7 million tonnes, the calculated volume of global seaborne wheat deliveries in January 2026 was modestly above the previous month’s upwardly adjusted estimate. 
• The January tally was broadly in line with the prior three-year average, but exceeded the volume of January 2025 by 8%, while 2025/26 (July/June) cumulative deliveries reached 88.8 million tonnes, 3% higher year-on-year and 7% above the three-year average.
• The annual increase in imports is largely driven by strong shipments to Asia, estimated to be up 16% year-on year as of end-January 2026.
• Cumulative imports by Central and South America, as well as Oceania, are also running ahead of last season, while deliveries elsewhere are lagging, including to Europe (-46% year-on-year) and Africa (-2%).

Key insights

Exports vs prices/ freight

•  International wheat export prices averaged a little higher month-on-month in January, as demonstrated by the wheat sub-Index of the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI). While ideas of ample global availabilities continued to weigh on values, there was some offsetting support from a weaker US dollar and perceived winterkill risks for 2026/27 winter crops in some northern hemisphere producers. 

• With lower average timecharter rates across Panamax, Supramax and Handysize vessel segments outweighed by firmer marine fuel costs, voyage freight rates on main grains and oilseeds routes in January were a little higher compared to the month before. This was reflected by movements in the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Freight Index (GOFI) which touched a six-week high at the end of January and was up by one-third year-on-year. 

   

Bi-weekly / cumulative imports/exports

• Although January seaborne shipments of around 12.7 million tonnes broadly matched the previous month’s volume, there were mixed trends across the main importing sub-regions. 
• In Africa, the recent upturn in shipments to Eastern, Western and Southern sub-regions only partly compensated for a drop in imports by Northern Africa, which was estimated to have received around 2.1 million tonnes in January, down by 0.5 million tonnes month-on-month. The decline stemmed mainly from smaller arrivals to Egypt, which has sourced a cumulative 7.4 million tonnes of wheat since July 2025, slightly behind last year. With imports by Algeria and Tunisia also trailing last season, total imports by Northern Africa since the start of the July/June marketing year were estimated at 18.7 million tonnes, down 2% year-on-year.
• Deliveries to Middle Africa also retreated in January after the previous month’s upturn, falling to around 250,000 tonnes (280,000 tonnes previous month), and lifting the sub-region’s 2025/26 (July/June) accumulated imports to 1.7 million tonnes, down by 8% year-on-year. The annual decline is chiefly tied to reduced imports by Cameroon, which is estimated to have received around 550,000 tonnes through end-January, down from around 750,000 tonnes one year earlier. 
• Other African sub-regions witnessed increased deliveries in January compared to the month before. However, accumulated marketing year arrivals to Western and Southern Africa remained 2% and 15% lower year-on-year, respectively. 
• In Western Africa, firmer demand to date from Cote d’Ivoire, Liberia, Senegal and Sierra Leone only partly compensates for smaller deliveries elsewhere. The latter includes Nigeria, the leading importer in sub-Saharan Africa, which has sourced around 3.4 million tonnes during July 2025 – January 2026, 140,000 tonnes below last year. 
• The 15% annual decline in accumulated arrivals by Southern Africa primarily stems from a sharp year-on-year drop in Namibia’s imports, typically sourced from the EU. As of 31 January, the country’s 2025/26 (July/June) cumulative imports stood at around 50,000 tonnes, down from almost 190,000 tonnes a year ago. 
• Import trends across Asia were similarly mixed over in January, as increases for Eastern and South-eastern sub-regions contrasted with declines elsewhere. Notably, deliveries to South-eastern Asia surged by around 1.0 million tonnes month-on-month, to 2.9 million tonnes, as the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam boosted purchases from Australia, Argentina, the United States and Brazil. As at end-January, 2025/26 cumulative imports by South-eastern Asia totalled 15.1 million tonnes, up 6% year-on-year, reflecting annual increases for Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines. 
• Conversely, the month of January featured subsiding cargo flows to Southern Asia, chiefly reflecting smaller deliveries to Bangladesh. Despite the recent slowdown, accumulated shipments by that country of around 3.1 million tonnes are estimated to be 160,000 tonnes higher year-on-year, while total sub-regional imports of 5.4 million tonnes are 27% higher year-on-year, mainly owing to larger shipments to Iran (1.4 million tonnes, up 1.1 million tonnes year-on-year).
• The bulk of the recent decline in shipments to Western Asia was tied to slower flows to Turkey, in part due to weather-related loading delays at Russian ports. Nonetheless, at a cumulative 3.1 million tonnes, imports by Turkey are around 1.4 million tonnes higher year-on-year, contributing to a 31% annual increase in total sub-regional imports, estimated at 11.7 million tonnes as at 31 January. 

Key insights

Expected arrivals

• At around 15.2 million tonnes, the global volume of cargoes in transit as of 31 January marked the highest end-of-month level since the start of the 2025/26 (July/June) season. This was 0.9 million tonnes higher than a month ago and included 12.9 million tonnes of cargoes with specified destinations.
• The data showed a continued rise in transits to Asia, estimated at around 8.0 million tonnes, up from 7.7 million one month earlier. The line-up for South-eastern Asia saw a particularly large increase, to 3.3 million tonnes (2.3 million tonnes as of end-December). Much of the gain was linked to rising flows of Argentine wheat to Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam. 
• The line-up to Southern Asia increased by around 0.6 million tonnes month-on-month, to 2.3 million tonnes, mainly on rising flows from Argentina to Bangladesh. The volume of cargoes in transit between those two countries reached around 1.2 million tonnes by end-January, up from just 60,000 tonnes three months earlier. 
• Flows to Africa also increased during January, reaching 3.8 million tonnes (3.0 million tonnes as of end-December). Much of the increase was attributed to larger flows to Northern Africa, most notably to Algeria and Morocco. 
• Among reported origins for cargoes in transit, Argentina was far ahead of other exporters, accounting for 4.3 million tonnes, almost double the level of one month earlier. This was followed by the Russian Federation and Canada, each at around 1.7 million tonnes (2.1 million tonnes and 2.2 million tonnes one month before, respectively). The line-up from the European Union declined to 1.3 million tonnes (1.6 million tonnes), while volumes from the United States and Australia also edged lower, dropping to 1.2 million tonnes and 1.1 million tonnes, respectively.

Key insights

Exporter line ups

• Available port line-up data showed that around 0.3 million tonnes was loading at Argentine ports as at 31 January, including around 30,000 tonnes to Algeria, 45,000 tonnes to South America (Colombia, Ecuador), and 225,000 tonnes for Asia (Bangladesh, China, Vietnam).
• The end-of-January line-up at Australian ports was reported at 240,000 tonnes, mostly destined for South-eastern Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines). 
• In Canada, the line-up featured around 165,000 tonnes destined for Nigeria, Japan and unspecified destinations. 

Key insights

Delivery times (updated at the beginning of each quarter)

• Calculated journey times (from dispatch to unloading) show that the average delivery period for global wheat shipments over the past three seasons (July/June) was close to one month (28 days). 
• Among net importing sub-regions, Southern Asia and Sothern Africa have the longest delivery periods, averaging 47 and 36 days over the past three seasons, respectively. Average delivery times to Eastern and Middle Africa, as well as Eastern and South-eastern Asia also exceeded 30 days. 
• In contrast, the shortest delivery times were reported for such net importing sub-regions as the Caribbean (18 days, on average), Northern Africa (22 days), Western Africa (24 days) and Central America (24 days). 
• At around 28 days, the global average delivery period during the second half of 2025 (July-December) broadly matched the prior three-year average. 
• Compared to the prior six months, July-December delivery times were shorter for a number of sub-regions in Asia and Africa, notably for Northern Africa (-4 days) and Western Asia (-2 days), with voyage times for the former also 3 days below the prior three-year average. 
• July-December delivery times to Western Africa, Southern Africa, the Caribbean and Eastern Asia were slightly shorter than in preceding six months. Durations were also below the previous three-year average, except for Western Africa, where the indicator stood three days above the corresponding historical benchmark. This partly reflected longer delivery times from Canada to Nigeria, the key sub-regional importer, with some voyages estimated at more than 70 days. The second half of 2025 also featured unusually long voyages from the Russian Federation’s port of Kavkaz to Nigeria, with multiple discharges at Nigerian ports contributing to extended overall delivery times. 
• In contrast to other net importing sub-regions, average delivery times for Middle Africa rose sharply during the July-December period, to 43 days, up by nine days from the preceding six months and 10 days above the prior three-year average. The increase was partly tied to the inclusion of a rare shipment to Equatorial Guinea originating from the Russian Federation (port of Taman), with delivery time estimated at 74 days. Moreover, delivery durations for some other countries in that sub-region were also longer than in the previous six months. This included Angola, Cameroon and Gabon, partly reflecting extended voyage times from the European Union and the Russian Federation. 

• At around 45 days, average delivery times to Southern Asia during July-December 2025 were about six days longer than in the preceding six months. However, the increase was partly attributable to relatively small volumes destined for India, while voyage times for Bangladesh, which accounted for the bulk of sub-region’s imports during the period, were largely steady at around 35 days. 

   

Key insights

Role of trade versus delivery time matrix (updated at the beginning of each year)

SSR matrix

• Some regions, including Western Africa, South-eastern Asia, Middle Africa and the Caribbean, are almost totally reliant on imports for their domestic consumption of wheat, although the absolute volume of wheat consumption in the latter two regions is relatively small compared to other areas. At the same time, South-eastern Asia and Middle Africa have one of the longest average delivery times of around 30 days (based on calculated journey-related data over the past three seasons).

Regional timeline chart

• Calculated indicators show a marginal improvement in production-to-consumption levels in Eastern and Southern Africa over the past decade, with the increase in the former sub-region mainly linked to Ethiopia (from 79% in 2015/16 to 86% in 2024/25) and Zimbabwe (from 31% to 64%). Still, sub-regional numbers indicate that domestic production covers less than half of local consumption for all parts of Africa, with the level for Middle Africa close to zero. 

5-year average chart

• The five-year average production to consumption ratios have declined for most parts of Asia over the past decade, with the largest drop for Eastern Asia, where the indicator slid from the average of around 95% during 2015/16-2019/20 to 88% over the following five years. This mainly reflects a falling ratio for China, from 110% in 2015/16 to 95% in 2024/25.
• Conversely, the level of production-to-consumption has improved markedly for South America and Other Europe over the past five years (largely owing to growing production in Argentina, Brazil and the Russian Federation, respectively), with the former region’s average ratio edging above 100% over the past five years.