Wheat maritime trade & food security

Key insights

General points

• Seaborne shipping data indicate a relatively strong start to the 2024/25 July/June trade year, with global deliveries during the first fortnight up moderately from last year and the three-year average. Early-season imports by all African sub-regions were up year-on-year, with especially strong arrivals reported to Northern Africa. Trends in Asia remained mixed, with weak deliveries noted to Western and Southern Asia, in part owing to slow imports by Bangladesh and Iran, as well as a temporary import ban by Turkey.   

Bi-weekly / cumulative imports/exports

• Northern Africa was the largest importing sub-region over the first fortnight of the 2024/25 season, with deliveries of around 1.5 million tonnes, almost double year-on-year and more than one-quarter of reported global seaborne deliveries over the period (5.8 million tonnes). Especially solid arrivals were noted for Algeria, which received around 0.6 million tonnes (0.3 million tonnes year ago), the largest fortnightly volume in at least three years. While supplies mostly originated from Canada, the EU and the Russian Federation, smaller volumes were also reported from Mexico and Ukraine. With the recent easing of financial constraints, Egypt was also a significant buyer, with arrivals of around 0.5 million tonnes (0.3 million tonnes year ago), chiefly from the Russian Federation. Recent imports by Libya, Morocco and Sudan also exceeded prior year’s levels, but those by Tunisia were relatively modest, at around 18,000 tonnes (80,000 tonnes year ago). However, shipments to Tunisia are expected to accelerate following recent tender purchases of milling wheat and durum, reportedly for July/September delivery. 
• Early-season imports by other African sub-regions have also exceeded comparable volumes one year ago and the prior three-year average. Notably, at around 415,000 tonnes and 107,000 tonnes, deliveries to Western and Middle Africa were up by 42% and 39% year-on-year, respectively. 
• Arrivals to Western Africa were dominated by the sub-region’s leading importer Nigeria, which sourced the bulk of its supplies from the Baltic region, a regular supplier of high-protein wheat to sub-Saharan Africa. Deliveries to date to all countries in Western Africa were higher year-on-year, except for Cote d’Ivoire and Senegal, with no deliveries reported to the former. 
• The year-on-year increase in deliveries to Middle Africa was led by Angola and Cameroon, however, imports by the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Republic of the Congo remained generally slow and lagged last season. 
• Deliveries to Eastern Africa during 1-15 July, reported at around 390,000 tonnes (+17% year-on-year), were led by Kenya and Mozambique, with the former mostly sourcing wheat from the Russian Federation. However, imports by Tanzania, another active buyer of Russian supplies in recent years, were lower year-on-year. However, that followed sizable deliveries of around 0.3 million tonnes over the previous three months.
• Mixed early season trends were reported in Asia. While recent imports by Eastern and South-eastern Asia were moderately higher year-on-year, those to Southern Asia and Western Asia were sharply lower, down by 78% and 48% year-on-year, respectively. Flows in Southern Asia, estimated at just around 87,000 tonnes during 1-15 July, featured small arrivals to India, Iran, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, with no deliveries reported to Bangladesh, the sub-region’s leading importer. Pakistan has recently officially banned imports of wheat amid bumper domestic availabilities. Despite the 40% import duty, India reportedly received a wheat cargo from Australia recently, with several cargoes reported to be in transit from Russia’s ports of Novorossiysk and Kavkaz.
• The near-50% year-on-year drop in seaborne imports by Western Asia, to around 420,000 tonnes, was mainly tied to reduced purchases by Turkey, which introduced a temporary ban on wheat imports for processing recently. No deliveries during 1-15 July were reported to Iraq, Israel and Jordan, compared to a combined 170,000 tonnes one year earlier. Imports by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were broadly steady year-on-year.
• Among other relatively smaller importing sub-regions, a sharp year-on-year increase in imports during 1-15 July was reported for the Caribbean. The sub-region received an estimated 165,000 tonnes, up almost threefold year-on-year, amid solid demand for North American supplies in many countries, notably in Cuba and the Dominican Republic. This likely reflected more attractive prices from the US and Canada amid expectations for this season’s larger exportable availabilities.
• In contrast, recent arrivals to Central America fell well short of last season’s levels, with lower deliveries noted to Costa Rica, Guatemala, Panama and Mexico. Nonetheless, seaborne deliveries to the latter were likely complemented by land shipments from the US, a major supplier of grains to that country.

Key insights

Exports vs prices / freight

• Recent private shipping data indicated a brisk start to the 2024/25 (July/June) marketing year, showing that around 5.8 million tonnes was delivered to monitored ports around the world during the first half of July, up by 10% compared to the same period last year and 16% above the prior three-year average (2021/22-2023/24). 
• Global export prices were termed supportive for trade in recent weeks. As demonstrated by the wheat sub-Index of the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI), after falling to a three-year low during spring, average export prices rallied strongly on concerns about Black Sea production prospects, but mostly reversed gains thereafter, as markets succumbed to northern hemisphere harvest pressure. Prices at many origins have been also anchored by still competitive offers from the Russian Federation and Ukraine, despite this season’s reduced exportable surpluses in those countries. As at mid-July, the GOI sub-Index was almost one-fifth lower year-on-year.
• Average voyage costs across the main grains and oilseeds routes eased slightly during the first two weeks of July, as evidenced by movements in the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Freight Index (GOFI). Nonetheless, the Index was still more than one-quarter higher year-year as at mid-July, with annual gains across all constituent origins in part linked to increased journey times, as ship owners take alternative routes due to bottlenecks at the Panama Canal and disruptions in the Red Sea area. 

Key insights

• Seaborne shipping data indicate a relatively strong start to the 2024/25 July/June trade year, with global deliveries during the first fortnight up moderately from last year and the three-year average. Early-season imports by all African sub-regions were up year-on-year, with especially strong arrivals reported to Northern Africa. Trends in Asia remained mixed, with weak deliveries noted to Western and Southern Asia, in part owing to slow imports by Bangladesh and Iran, as well as a temporary import ban by Turkey. 

Bi-weekly / cumulative imports/exports

• Northern Africa was the largest importing sub-region over the first fortnight of the 2024/25 season, with deliveries of around 1.5 million tonnes, almost double year-on-year and more than one-quarter of reported global seaborne deliveries over the period (5.8 million tonnes). Especially solid arrivals were noted for Algeria, which received around 0.6 million tonnes (0.3 million tonnes year ago), the largest fortnightly volume in at least three years. While supplies mostly originated from Canada, the EU and the Russian Federation, smaller volumes were also reported from Mexico and Ukraine. With the recent easing of financial constraints, Egypt was also a significant buyer, with arrivals of around 0.5 million tonnes (0.3 million tonnes year ago), chiefly from the Russian Federation. Recent imports by Libya, Morocco and Sudan also exceeded prior year’s levels, but those by Tunisia were relatively modest, at around 18,000 tonnes (80,000 tonnes year ago). However, shipments to Tunisia are expected to accelerate following recent tender purchases of milling wheat and durum, reportedly for July/September delivery. 
• Early-season imports by other African sub-regions have also exceeded comparable volumes one year ago and the prior three-year average. Notably, at around 415,000 tonnes and 107,000 tonnes, deliveries to Western and Middle Africa were up by 42% and 39% year-on-year, respectively. 
• Arrivals to Western Africa were dominated by the sub-region’s leading importer Nigeria, which sourced the bulk of its supplies from the Baltic region, a regular supplier of high-protein wheat to sub-Saharan Africa. Deliveries to date to all countries in Western Africa were higher year-on-year, except for Cote d’Ivoire and Senegal, with no deliveries reported to the former. 
• The year-on-year increase in deliveries to Middle Africa was led by Angola and Cameroon, however, imports by the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Republic of the Congo remained generally slow and lagged last season. 
• Deliveries to Eastern Africa during 1-15 July, reported at around 390,000 tonnes (+17% year-on-year), were led by Kenya and Mozambique, with the former mostly sourcing wheat from the Russian Federation. However, imports by Tanzania, another active buyer of Russian supplies in recent years, were lower year-on-year. However, that followed sizable deliveries of around 0.3 million tonnes over the previous three months.
• Mixed early season trends were reported in Asia. While recent imports by Eastern and South-eastern Asia were moderately higher year-on-year, those to Southern Asia and Western Asia were sharply lower, down by 78% and 48% year-on-year, respectively. Flows in Southern Asia, estimated at just around 87,000 tonnes during 1-15 July, featured small arrivals to India, Iran, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, with no deliveries reported to Bangladesh, the sub-region’s leading importer. Pakistan has recently officially banned imports of wheat amid bumper domestic availabilities. Despite the 40% import duty, India reportedly received a wheat cargo from Australia recently, with several cargoes reported to be in transit from Russia’s ports of Novorossiysk and Kavkaz.
• The near-50% year-on-year drop in seaborne imports by Western Asia, to around 420,000 tonnes, was mainly tied to reduced purchases by Turkey, which introduced a temporary ban on wheat imports for processing recently. No deliveries during 1-15 July were reported to Iraq, Israel and Jordan, compared to a combined 170,000 tonnes one year earlier. Imports by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were broadly steady year-on-year.
• Among other relatively smaller importing sub-regions, a sharp year-on-year increase in imports during 1-15 July was reported for the Caribbean. The sub-region received an estimated 165,000 tonnes, up almost threefold year-on-year, amid solid demand for North American supplies in many countries, notably in Cuba and the Dominican Republic. This likely reflected more attractive prices from the US and Canada amid expectations for this season’s larger exportable availabilities.
• In contrast, recent arrivals to Central America fell well short of last season’s levels, with lower deliveries noted to Costa Rica, Guatemala, Panama and Mexico. Nonetheless, seaborne deliveries to the latter were likely complemented by land shipments from the US, a major supplier of grains to that country.

Key insights

Expected arrivals

• At around 8.5 million tonnes, the volume of wheat cargoes in transit declined only slightly from the end of June, with the total including 7.1 million tonnes with specified destinations.  
• Similar to two weeks before, Asia accounted for around one-half of the specified volume. South-eastern Asia remained the leading recipient, with the line-up of 1.3 million tonnes. Australia, Canada and the US were listed among the main origins, but a sizable volume of around 0.3 million tonnes was also expected to arrive from Ukraine to Indonesia and Vietnam, confirming reports of recent sales. While several cargoes were also transiting from the EU, mainly from the Black Sea region, the volume also included a rare feed wheat cargo from France to Thailand. 
• Elsewhere in Asia, around 1.0 million tonnes was en-route to Eastern Asia, mostly to Japan and South Korea, chiefly originating from Australia, Canada and the US. Following solid imports in recent months, the line up to China totalled just around 100,000 tonnes. 
• The line-up for Southern Asia was relatively small, at around 0.5 million tonnes, mainly destined for Bangladesh. However, the volume also included four wheat cargoes from the Russian Federation, totalling around 100,000 tonnes, reportedly going to India. 
• A significant portion of a reported 0.7 million tonnes transiting for Western Asia, was destined for Saudi Arabia. While Turkey introduced a temporary ban on wheat imports for inward processing from 21 June 2024, two shipments originating from the Russian Federation still indicated Turkey as the intended destination. 
• Out of 2.5 million tonnes destined for Africa, around 1.0 million tonnes was for Northern Africa, with Algeria accounting for one-half of that volume. An increasing line-up was noted for Morocco, with Canada, the EU and the Russian Federation the main suppliers. 
• Among other African sub-regions, Kenya and Mozambique remained the largest recipients in Eastern Africa, with around 0.2 million tonnes reported to be en-route to each destination. 
• In Western Africa, steady flows were reported for Nigeria, with 0.3 million tonnes expected to arrive in the coming weeks. Cote d’Ivoire, Liberia and Senegal were reported among other significant destinations, with an aggregate line up of around 0.2 million tonnes. 

Key insights

Exporter line ups

• In the EU, the port line up included cargoes from France and Romania destined for Egypt and Saudi Arabia, respectively. 
• In Russia and Ukraine, some volumes were loaded for Northern Africa, including for Egypt and Morocco. 

Key insights

Delivery times (updated at the beginning of each month)

• Calculated journey times (from dispatch to unloading) show that the average delivery period for global wheat shipments over the past three seasons (Jul/Jun) was close to one month (27 days). 
• Among net importing sub-regions, Southern Asia and Sothern Africa have the longest delivery periods, averaging 41 and 34 days over the past three seasons, respectively. The shortest delivery times are reported for such net importing sub-regions as the Caribbean and Central America, averaging 19 and 21 days, respectively. 
• At around 28 days, the global average delivery period during January-June 2024 was broadly in line with the prior three-year average, but with mixed changes across constituent sub-regions. For instance, delivery times for Eastern Africa were estimated to be longer than normal, averaging 36 days (three-year average at 31 days). This was partly linked the long-haul deliveries from Canada (western coast) to Reunion and Tanzania, as well as to shipments from the EU (France, Lithuania) via southern Africa to Mauritius and Tanzania. Deliveries from the Russian Federation to Tanzania and Kenya also had longer than normal delivery periods, even though the vessels took the shortest route via the Suez Canal. Recent deliveries to Kenya also included relatively long journey times from South America, including from Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay.
• Longer than normal delivery times were also noted for Central America during January-June 2024, averaging 23 days (21 days during prior three seasons), in part owing to rising long-haul deliveries of Russian wheat to Mexico. 
• Longer-than-average delivery times were also noted to all Asian sub-regions. Notably, delivery periods for South-eastern Asia during January-June 2024 were estimated at 36 days, some 6 days higher than average, in part reflecting shifts in purchases by Thailand, from Australia to more distant origins, including the EU (Bulgaria, Romania) and Brazil, as well as increased deliveries from Brazil to the Philippines. 
• In contrast, delivery periods for Southern Asia have retreated in 2024 after spiking in the year before, amid unloading delays at Iranian ports.

Key insights

Role of trade versus delivery time matrix (updated at the beginning of each month)

SSR matrix

• Some regions, including Western Africa, South-eastern Asia, Middle Africa and the Caribbean, are almost totally reliant on imports for their domestic consumption of wheat, although the absolute volume of wheat consumption in the latter two regions is relatively small compared to other areas. At the same time, South-eastern Asia and Middle Africa have one of the longest average delivery times of 30 days (based on calculated journey-related data over the past three seasons).

Regional timeline chart

• Calculated indicators suggest little improvement in production to consumption ratios over the past decade, on average, for some net importing regions, including all parts of Africa. All African regions have average ratios of less than 50%. 

5-year average chart

• The five-year average production to consumption ratios have declined slightly for some parts of Asia over the past decade, but improved markedly for South America and Other Europe (largely owing to growing production in Argentina, Brazil and Russia, respectively), with the former region’s average ratio over the past five years reaching 100%.