Wheat maritime trade & food security

General points – Exports/Imports 

• After a slowdown in the early half of November, a slight uptick in maritime wheat trade flows was reported during the second half of the month, with global imports during 16-30 November pegged at 5.3 million tonnes (5.2 million tonnes during the previous fortnight). The figure broadly matched the volume over the same period last year, but was 7% short of the prior three-year average. 
• As of the end of November, marketing year 2024/25 (July/June) accumulated global deliveries were estimated at 57.8 million tonnes, 3% higher year-on-year, chiefly owing to larger seaborne imports by Africa, South-eastern Asia and the European Union. In contrast, deliveries to other parts of Asia, as well as North and Central America, continued to lag last season. 

Key insights

Imports vs prices/ freight

• A generally soft tone continued to prevail across the key wheat export markets, as average fob prices declined for a third successive fortnight, as measured by the IGC GOI (Grains and Oilseeds Index) wheat sub-Index. Occasional underpinning from news of intensified Black Sea hostilities was outweighed by pressure from sluggish international demand, improved cropping weather in northern hemisphere exporters and progressing harvests in the southern hemisphere, with the IGC GOI wheat sub-Index quoted 9% lower year-on-year as of the end of November. 
• Average voyage expenses for dry bulk deliveries of grains and soyabeans were similarly weaker during the latter half of November, against the backdrop of ample tonnage supply at key loading areas. With weakness also linked to softer marine fuel prices, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Freight Index (GOFI) – tracking total seaborne transportation costs for selected grains and oilseeds – was almost 30% lower year-on-year as of end-November, with the sharpest annual declines seen on routes out of Brazil and Canada. 

Bi-weekly / cumulative imports/exports

• The second half of November featured mixed changes in deliveries to various sub-regions, as the global volume edged 0.1 million tonnes higher from the prior fortnight, to 5.3 million tonnes. 
• Among notable changes, arrivals to Northern Africa rebounded after an earlier dip, with around 1.2 million tonnes delivered during 16-30 November, up by 0.3 million tonnes from the prior fortnight, with increases noted for Algeria, Libya and Morocco. Although deliveries to Tunisia and Egypt slowed towards the end of the month, 2024/25 (July/June) seaborne imports by both countries remain well ahead of last year, estimated at 0.6 million tonnes (0.5 million tonnes year ago) and 5.1 million tonnes (4.1 million tonnes), respectively. Imports to date by Algeria, Libya and Morocco are also higher year-on-year, but those by Sudan are slightly lower, with no arrivals reported during November. Northern Africa remains by far the largest importing sub-region, with cumulative arrivals during July-November 2024 reported at 12.6 million tonnes, up by 19% year-on-year and 10% above the prior three-year average. 
• Among other African sub-region, a marked upturn in deliveries during the second half of November was also reported for Western Africa, including larger volumes for Ghana, Guinea, Mauritania, Senegal and Togo. With around 570,000 tonnes delivered during 16-30 November (470,000 tonnes prior fortnight), July-November imports by that sub-region reached 4.5 million tonnes, up by 13% year-on-year. However, despite the recent upturn, imports by Guinea, Togo and Senegal remain behind last season, with wheat arrivals to the latter through end-November estimated at 380,000 tonnes, down from 460,000 tonnes one year ago. 
• 16-30 November arrivals to Eastern, Middle and Southern Africa were broadly similar to the prior fortnight, with accumulated imports during the first five months of the July/June season estimated at 3.3 million tonnes (2.7 million tonnes year ago), 0.9 million tonnes (0.7 million tonnes) and 1.1 million tonnes (1.0 million tonnes), respectively. Available shipping data indicated no major lags in imports across the above regions compared to the previous season, with only relatively modest annual declines reported for Cameroon, Gabon (Middle Africa), Eritrea, Somalia (Eastern Africa) and South Africa (Southern Africa). 
• Although a relatively small importing sub-region, the Caribbean featured brisk imports this season. Following a sharp upturn in deliveries in the second half of November, mainly owing to increased arrivals to Haiti, Jamaica (from Canada and the United States) and Puerto Rico (from Argentina), 2024/25 (July/June) accumulated imports reached around 777,000 tonnes, up by 45% year-on-year. However, arrivals to date to Haiti of around 82,000 tonnes were still some 30,000 tonnes short of last season’s volume as of end-November, with deliveries to Puerto Rico also lagging slightly. 
• An uptick in deliveries was also reported for Central America over the past fortnight, notably to El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Mexico, taking the sub-regional MY2024/25 (July/June) total as of end-November to 1.7 million tonnes. However, this is still 18% lower year-on-year, chiefly due to lagging imports by Costa Rica, Guatemala, Panama and Mexico, with the largest decline reported for the latter, amid this season’s smaller deliveries from Canada and the Russian Federation.
• Despite the recent slowdown, July-November deliveries to South America of 5.4 million tonnes was 16% higher year-on-year, as this year’s stronger imports by Brazil (typically mainly originating from Argentina) outweighed slower demand from some other importers, notably from Chile, Colombia and Peru.  
• Mixed trends in imports were witnessed in Asia over the past two weeks. Arrivals to Eastern Asia edged higher, taking 2024/25 (July/June) seaborne imports to 5.0 million tonnes, still down by 23% year-on-year, primarily due to lower purchases by China. In contrast, deliveries to South-eastern and Western Asia slowed markedly, with 2024/25 accumulated imports estimated at 10.0 million tonnes (+13% year-on-year) and 5.8 million tonnes (-23%). The sharp annual decline in imports by the latter sub-region reflects lower deliveries to all countries, aside from Lebanon, Qatar and Yemen. The largest annual gaps are reported for Iraq, Turkey and Israel – the drop for the latter mainly stemming from reduced deliveries from the Russian Federation.

Key insights

Expected arrivals

• A further rebound from the late-October dip was noted in the volume of cargo in transit, which was estimated at 10.2 million tonnes as of end-November, up by 0.8 million tonnes from two weeks earlier and the largest fortnightly volume since mid-August.
• The tally included around 8.5 million tonnes with specified destinations (8.0 million tonnes two weeks before), with Asia reported as the final destination for 3.7 million tonnes (3.4 million tonnes), while 3.0 million tonnes was destined for Africa (2.7 million tonnes). 
• The 0.3-million tonne increase in transiting volumes for Africa primarily reflected rising line-ups for Eastern Africa (0.6 million tonnes versus 0.3 million tonnes two weeks earlier), notably for Kenya (from Canada, the United States and the Russian Federation), Mozambique (from Canada and the Russian Federation) and Tanzania (from the European Union and the Russian Federation). 
• A larger line-up compared to mid-November was also noted for Western Africa, at around 1.0 million tonnes (0.9 million tonnes two weeks earlier). Notably, the volume for Nigeria, the sub-region’s largest importer, doubled compared to mid-November, to 0.6 million tonnes (mainly from Canada, the European Union and the Russian Federation). This outweighed declines for other countries, notably for Senegal and Togo. 
• On the exporter side, the Russian Federation maintained the leading position, with 2.5 million tonnes reported to be en-route from that country, same as two weeks earlier. This was followed by Canada, which saw a further rise in shipments, to 2.3 million tonnes (2.1 million tonnes a fortnight earlier). Around 1.6 million tonnes was originating from the European Union, up slightly compared to two weeks earlier, with 1.0 million tonnes reported to be en-route from the United States (0.8 million tonnes), and 0.4 million tonnes originating from Ukraine (0.5 million tonnes). 

Key insights

Exporter line ups

• Among reported loadings at key origins, around 170,000 tonnes was prepared to be dispatched from Argentine ports, including around 32,000 tonnes for Brazil, 57,000 tonnes for Ecuador and 82,000 tonnes for unspecified destinations. 
• In the European Union, a 31,000-tonne cargo was reportedly loading for Turkey in Bulgaria, with 37,000 tonnes prepared to be dispatched from Latvia to Cameroon.
• In Canada, the line-up featured a 74,000-tonne Panamax cargo destined for Algeria.
• In the Russian Federation, around 55,000 tonnes was expected to be dispatched to each Sudan and Mexico. 
• In Australia, the port line-up included around 120,000 tonnes for unspecified destinations. 

Key insights

Delivery times (updated at the beginning of each month)

• Calculated journey times (from dispatch to unloading) show that the average delivery period for global wheat shipments over the past three seasons (Jul/Jun) was close to one month (27 days). 
• Among net importing sub-regions, Southern Asia and Sothern Africa have the longest delivery periods, averaging 41 and 35 days over the past three seasons, respectively. Average delivery times to Eastern Africa and other parts of Asia (Eastern, South-eastern and Western Asia) also exceeded 30 days. In contrast, the shortest delivery times were reported for such net importing sub-regions as the Caribbean and Central America, averaging 18 and 21 days, respectively. 
• At around 27 days, the global average delivery period during July-Nov 2024 was broadly similar to the prior three-year average, but with mixed changes across constituent sub-regions. At around 37 days, delivery times for Eastern Africa were estimated to be 5 days longer than the three-year average. This was largely linked to a longer recent delivery from Ukraine (Chornomorsk) to Somalia (Berbera Port), with the cargo initially partly unloaded in Tunisia. An unusually long unloading time was also reported for a recent cargo from the Russian Federation (Kavkaz) to Djibouti. Longer than normal delivery periods from the EU (Latvia), which used circuitous routes via southern Africa, also contributed to an overall increase in delivery times to Eastern Africa compared to the three-year average.
• Slightly longer than average delivery times were also reported for Western and Middle Africa during July-November 2024, averaging 24 days (23 days during prior three seasons) and 32 days (30 days), respectively. The change for Western Africa was partly tied to an unusual delivery from the US Pacific Coast, with the vessel initially unloading at some destinations in Pacific Asia. The modest increase for Middle Africa mostly stemmed from longer delivery times from the Russian Federation and Ukraine to Angola, and from the European Union to the Republic of the Congo. 
• Although Central America enjoys one of the shortest delivery periods among net importing sub-regions, the average voyage duration to that area during July-November of around 24 days was some 3 days above the prior three-year average, mainly because of longer delivery times from the United States and Canada to Guatemala.    
• Journey times for deliveries to Southern Asia have fluctuated significantly over the past three years. After surging from the normal 32-33 days to more than 50 days during 2023 amid unloading delays at Iranian ports, journey durations retreated in 2024, with the average period during July-November estimated at 38 days.

Key insights

Role of trade versus delivery time matrix (updated at the beginning of each month)

SSR matrix

• Some regions, including Western Africa, South-eastern Asia, Middle Africa and the Caribbean, are almost totally reliant on imports for their domestic consumption of wheat, although the absolute volume of wheat consumption in the latter two regions is relatively small compared to other areas. At the same time, South-eastern Asia and Middle Africa have one of the longest average delivery times of around 30 days (based on calculated journey-related data over the past three seasons).

Regional timeline chart

• Calculated indicators suggest little improvement in production to consumption ratios over the past decade, on average, for some net importing regions, including all parts of Africa. All African regions have average ratios of less than 50%, with particularly low indicators noted for Middle and Western Africa. 

5-year average chart

• The five-year average production to consumption ratios have declined slightly for some parts of Asia over the past decade. Notably, the indicator for Eastern Asia dropped from the average of around 100% during 2014/15-2018/19 to 89% over the following five years, mainly reflecting a falling ratio for China.
• In contrast the level of production-to-consumption improved markedly for South America and Other Europe over the past five years (largely owing to growing production in Argentina, Brazil and the Russian Federation, respectively), with the former region’s average ratio over the past five years reaching 100%.