Wheat maritime trade & food security

General points – Exports/Imports 

• Seaborne wheat trade slowed markedly during the first half of November, as private shipping data indicated total deliveries of around 5.4 million tonnes over the period, around 1.0 million tonnes lower compared to the previous fortnight. Nonetheless, the volume was 3% above imports over the same period last year, with 2024/25 (July/June) accumulated arrivals through mid-November totalling 52.5 million tonnes, up by 4% year-on-year and only modestly short of the prior three-year average. 
• The 4% annual rise in seaborne wheat imports to date was chiefly linked to stronger imports by all African sub-regions, as well as robust flows to the Caribbean, South America, Europe and South-eastern Asia. In contrast, ample local supplies and associated import limitations continue to cap purchases by other parts of Asia, with cumulative deliveries to Central and North America also down markedly year-on-year. 

Key insights

Imports vs prices/ freight

• Average commodity prices (fob) and seaborne freight costs continued to decline during the first half of November, with the former easing for a third successive fortnight, as demonstrated by the IGC GOI (Grains and Oilseeds Index) wheat sub-Index. While international prices remained anchored by sustained competition from Black Sea supplies and generally sluggish nearby demand, additional pressure stemmed from improved weather outlooks in a number of northern hemisphere exporters, as well as seasonally rising supplies in the southern hemisphere. With a strengthening US dollar also a bearish influence, the GOI sub-Index was quoted around 12% lower year-on-year as of mid-November. 
• Weaker timecharter rates for smaller-sized Supramax and Handysize bulk carriers and softer marine fuel costs saw the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Freight Index (GOFI), which gauges changes in total voyage costs on key grains and oilseeds routes, drop for a third consecutive fortnight, led by declines in Canada and the EU, with values quoted 13% lower year-on-year as of 15 November. 

Bi-weekly / cumulative imports/exports

• The bulk of the 1.0 million tonne contraction in global wheat imports during 1-15 November compared to the prior fortnight was mainly attributed to smaller deliveries to Northern Africa. After spiking to 1.7 million tonnes in the second half of October, seaborne deliveries to that sub-region fell to 1.1 million tonnes during the following two weeks, mainly owing to subsiding flows to Algeria, Egypt and Morocco. Still, 2024/25 (July/June) accumulated imports by those countries remain well ahead of last year, pegged at 3.2 million tonnes (2.6 million tonnes same period last year), 5.0 million tonnes (3.8 million tonnes) and 2.0 million tonnes (1.8 million tonnes), respectively. Imports to date by Tunisia are also up slightly year-on-year, but those by Libya and Sudan are lagging last season slightly. As at mid-November, aggregated seaborne imports by Northern Africa (not fully incorporating coaster vessel deliveries) were estimated at 11.6 million tonnes, a 20% annual rise and 13% above the three-year average. 
• 1-15 November deliveries to all parts of Asia, barring Western Asia, also declined from the prior fortnight, with the largest drop reported for South-eastern Asia, driven by a slowdown for Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam after earlier sizable arrivals. Despite the slowdown, 2024/25 marketing year (July/June) cumulative arrivals to that sub-region were 13% higher year-on-year, mainly because of stronger demand from the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam, only partly countered by slower purchases by Indonesia. 
• Deliveries to Eastern Asia during 1-15 November were reported at around 0.3 million tonnes, down by 0.4 million tonnes from the previous fortnight, as volumes dropped for all constituent countries. This season’s relatively soft demand from China is mainly behind the 20% annual drop in accumulated shipments to that sub-region, estimated at around 4.8 million tonnes. 
• In contrast, an upturn in deliveries was reported for Western Asia, which received around 0.7 million tonnes via seaborne routes during 1-15 November (0.5 million tonnes during the prior fortnight). The bulk of the increase stemmed from growing volumes for Turkey, United Arab Emirates and Yemen. Notably, imports to Yemen rose sharply in the early half of November, with around 245,000 tonnes delivered from Australia, the Russian Federation and Ukraine (33,000 tonnes prior fortnight), lifting 2024/25 cumulative maritime imports to around 0.9 million tonnes, 0.1 million tonnes ahead of last season. As of mid-November, accumulated seaborne deliveries to Western Asia of 5.2 million tonnes were down by 22% year-on-year, with all countries, except for Yemen, Lebanon and Qatar, reported to be smaller buyers this season. The sharpest annual declines were reported for Israel, Iraq and Turkey, with ample domestic supplies noted in the latter two countries. 
• Imports by Eastern, Western and Southern Africa remained strong during 1-15 November, with volumes for all three sub-regions rising from the fortnight before. At around 3.0 million tonnes, MY2024/25 cumulative deliveries to Eastern Africa were up by 21% year-on-year as of mid-November, with particularly solid advances noted for Djibouti and Mozambique (imports by the former are assumed to be mostly transported to Ethiopia). Conversely, slight annual declines in accumulated imports were reported for Eritrea, Madagascar, Somalia and Tanzania.
• Western Africa saw arrivals of around 0.5 million tonnes during the first half of November (0.4 million tonnes prior fortnight), with the bulk destined for Nigeria, the largest importer in that sub-region. Most countries in Western Africa have secured larger volumes to date than last year, contributing to a 10% annual increase in aggregate imports, to 4.0 million tonnes. It should be noted though that Guinea, Senegal and Togo have been slower buyers so far this season, albeit as volume for all three countries picked up over the past fortnight.   
• Aggregate 2024/25 deliveries to Southern Africa through mid-November were up by 11% year-on-year, driven by firmer demand from Namibia, which had boosted purchases from the Baltic States. Also in that sub-region, imports by South Africa rose sharply over the past fortnight, taking accumulated arrivals to date to around 0.8 million tonnes, similar to the level of one year earlier. 

Key insights

Expected arrivals

• The volume of cargoes in transit continued to rebound from the late-October dip, reaching 9.3 million tonnes by mid-November, up by 0.2 million tonnes from two weeks earlier.
• The total included around 8.0 million tonnes with specified destinations (7.8 million tonnes two weeks before), with 3.4 million tonnes going to Asia (3.2 million tonnes) and 2.7 million tonnes destined for Africa (3.2 million tonnes).
• The solid 0.5 million tonne drop in transiting volumes for Africa was chiefly tied to Djibouti, with no cargoes reported to be en-route to that destination as of mid-November (276,000 tonnes two weeks earlier). The line-up for Kenya also declined, down by around 200,000 tonnes from the end of October, to around 140,000 tonnes. 
• Likely driven by seasonally increasing availabilities in Argentina, a significant increase in line-ups was noted for South America, to 0.8 million tonnes (0.5 million tonnes), mainly destined for Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru. 
• The line-up for Central America also increased, largely reflecting an influx of fresh cargoes from the United States and Brazil to Costa Rica. 
• In terms of suppliers, the Russian Federation was again the leading origin, with 2.5 million tonnes reported to be en-route from that country, only modestly below the level of 31 October. This was followed by Canada, which saw a marked rise in shipments, to 2.1 million tonnes (1.4 million tonnes a fortnight earlier). Around 1.5 million tonnes was originating from the EU, broadly steady compared to two weeks earlier, with 0.8 million tonnes reported to be en-route from the US (1.0 million tonnes), and a combined 0.4 million tonnes originating from Argentina and Australia. 

Key insights

Exporter line ups

• Among a few reported loadings at key origins, around 150,000 tonnes was prepared to be dispatched from Canadian ports, including around 74,000 tonnes for China and 79,000 tonnes for Indonesia. A 60,000-tonne cargo for the latter country was also reported to be loading in Ukraine. 
• In the Russian Federation, around 200,000 tonnes was prepared to be shipped to Egypt, Tunisia, Sri Lanka, Lebanon and Saudi Arabia. 
• In Australia, the line-up included a 12,000-tonne cargo for Indonesia, while in the EU, a 33,000-tonne cargo was reportedly loading in Lithuania for Cameroon. 

Key insights

Delivery times (updated at the beginning of each month)

• Calculated journey times (from dispatch to unloading) show that the average delivery period for global wheat shipments over the past three seasons (Jul/Jun) was close to one month (27 days). 
• Among net importing sub-regions, Southern Asia and Sothern Africa have the longest delivery periods, averaging 41 and 35 days over the past three seasons, respectively. Average delivery times to Eastern Africa and other parts of Asia (Eastern, South-eastern and Western Asia) also exceeded 30 days. In contrast, the shortest delivery times were reported for such net importing sub-regions as the Caribbean and Central America, averaging 18 and 21 days, respectively. 
• At around 26 days, the global average delivery period during July-October 2024 was a little lower than the three-year average, but with mixed changes across constituent sub-regions. At around 33 days, delivery times for Eastern Africa were estimated to be slightly longer than the three-year average. This was largely linked to recent longer than normal deliveries from the Russian Federation and the EU (Latvia), which used circuitous routes via southern Africa, as well as to a long-haul delivery from the western coast of Canada. Recent journey times from the Russian Federation to Djibouti were also longer than average, even though the vessels were using the Suez Canal. 
• Longer than average delivery times were also reported for Western Africa during July-August 2024, averaging 24 days (23 days during prior three seasons), in part owing to an unusual delivery from the US Pacific Coast, with the vessel initially unloading at some destinations in Pacific Asia. 
• Although Central America enjoys one of the shortest delivery periods among net importing sub-regions, the average voyage duration to that area during July-October of around 23 days was some 2 days above the prior three-year average, mainly because of longer delivery times from the US and Canada to Guatemala.    
• Journey times for deliveries to Southern Asia have fluctuated significantly over the past three years. After surging from the normal 32-33 days to more than 50 days during 2023 amid unloading delays at Iranian ports, journey durations retreated in 2024, with the average period during July-October estimated at 38 days.

Key insights

Role of trade versus delivery time matrix (updated at the beginning of each month)

SSR matrix

• Some regions, including Western Africa, South-eastern Asia, Middle Africa and the Caribbean, are almost totally reliant on imports for their domestic consumption of wheat, although the absolute volume of wheat consumption in the latter two regions is relatively small compared to other areas. At the same time, South-eastern Asia and Middle Africa have one of the longest average delivery times of around 30 days (based on calculated journey-related data over the past three seasons).

Regional timeline chart

• Calculated indicators suggest little improvement in production to consumption ratios over the past decade, on average, for some net importing regions, including all parts of Africa. All African regions have average ratios of less than 50%, with particularly low indicators noted for Middle and Western Africa. 

5-year average chart

• The five-year average production to consumption ratios have declined slightly for some parts of Asia over the past decade. Notably, the indicator for Eastern Asia dropped from the average of around 100% during 2014/15-2018/19 to 89% over the following five years, mainly reflecting a falling ratio for China.
• In contrast the level of production-to-consumption improved markedly for South America and Other Europe over the past five years (largely owing to growing production in Argentina, Brazil and the Russian Federation, respectively), with the former region’s average ratio over the past five years reaching 100%.