Wheat maritime trade & food security

General points – Exports/Imports 

After the prior month’s upturn, global seaborne wheat trade retreated in November on subsiding flows to Northern Africa and South-eastern Asia. Still, the November volume was well above the same month one year ago, with accumulated world deliveries during the first five months of the 2025/26 (July/June) season up by 1% year-on-year and 8% above the recent average. Notably, imports by Asia run ahead of last year (+7%), while aggregate deliveries to Africa to date broadly match last year’s level.  

• After peaking at 14.4 million tonnes during the prior month, global seaborne wheat shipments retreated moderately during November, to around 13.3 million tonnes, still the second largest monthly volume since the start of the 2025/26 (July/June) marketing year.
• Moreover, the November tally was 14% higher year-on-year and 13% above the prior three-year average, as 2025/26 accumulated imports climbed to 63.1 million tonnes, up 1% year-on-year and 8% above the recent average.   
• The annual increase in deliveries is almost entirely tied to increased demand from Asian buyers, notably in Southern and Western Asia, which outweighs this season’s smaller shipments to some other regions, notably to Europe. 
• 2025/26 (July/June) accumulated imports by Africa through November broadly matched the year before, as smaller arrivals to Northern and Middle parts were countered by brisker demand from other sub-regions. 
   

Key insights

Exports vs prices/ freight

•  Global wheat export prices averaged slightly firmer month-on-month during November. After hitting a five-year low in mid-October, the wheat sub-Index of the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) rebounded and recently touched a four-month high. Despite broadly ample (and increasing) global supply prospects, wheat drew support from firmer soyabean prices and renewed concerns over escalating Black Sea tensions. 
• Average voyage costs on major grains and oilseeds routes, tracked by the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Freight Index (GOFI), held broadly steady month-on-month during November. Freight rates are well above last year’s levels, with the Index up by 29% year-on-year as of end-November, including solid gains across all major origins. 
  
   

Bi-weekly / cumulative imports/exports

• The bulk of the 8% monthly decline in global maritime wheat arrivals during November 2025 was tied to smaller deliveries to Northern Africa and South-eastern Asia, with volumes to both sub-regions retreating after the prior month’s upturn.
• Following the recent slowdown in imports by Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam, 2025/26 (July/June) accumulated imports by South-eastern Asia of 10.3 million tonnes were broadly similar to one year ago as of end-November. While arrivals to Thailand (1.0 million tonnes) and Vietnam (1.6 million tonnes) lag last season, deliveries to Indonesia (4.5 million tonnes), Malaysia (0.6 million tonnes) and the Philippines (2.6 million tonnes) remain well above one year ago. 
• Northern Africa remained the world’s largest wheat importing sub-region, but with 2025/26 (July/June) accumulated arrivals of around 14.0 million tonnes down by 3% year-on-year on smaller purchases by Algeria (3.3 million tonne), Egypt (5.5 million tonnes) and Tunisia (0.7 million tonnes). The past month featured reduced imports by all countries in that sub-region, aside from Sudan.
• November deliveries to the Caribbean, Central America and Western Asia also fell month-on-month, but with cumulative imports by the latter two sub-regions up by 21% and 15%, at 1.9 million tonnes and 7.6 million tonnes, respectively. In contrast, 2025/26 cumulative arrivals to the Caribbean were estimated to be 7% lower year-on-year as of 30 November, primarily owing to smaller imports by the Dominical Republic and Trinidad and Tobago. 
• Arrivals to other sub-regions rose during November, with a particularly sizable increase reported for Eastern Asia. Despite the recent upturn in deliveries to China, accumulated imports by that country of around 1.0 million tonnes remain slightly below one year ago. 2025/26 (July/June) aggregate arrivals to Eastern Asia through November were reported at 5.1 million tonnes, up 3% year-on-year, mainly reflecting larger purchases by South Korea and Chinese Taipei. 
• Arrivals to Southern Asia also increased markedly during November, as an upsurge in shipments from the Russian Federation to Iran outweighed subsiding flows to Bangladesh. At 3.1 million tonnes, total arrivals to Southern Asia as of 30 November were 21% above last year, chiefly because of firmer demand from Iran (0.7 million tonnes, up three-fold year-on-year). 

Key insights

Expected arrivals

• The volume of wheat cargoes in transit climbed to 12.0 million tonnes by the end of November (11.7 million tonnes one month earlier), including 10.0 million tonnes with specified destinations (9.7 million tonnes). 
• The shipping data indicated a rising line-up to Asia, estimated at 5.6 million tonnes (5.3 million tonnes), while the volume of transits to Africa subsided further, to around 2.8 million tonnes (3.1 million tonnes one month earlier, 3.4 million tonnes two months ago). The decline for the latter continent was primarily tied to a sharp drop in transits to Western Africa, where volumes declined for most countries, including Cote d’Ivoire and Nigeria. Still, accumulated imports by both countries remain well above last season, while aggregate arrivals to Western Africa as of end-November were up by 10% year-on-year.    

• In terms of the main origins for cargoes in transit, the Russian Federation remained the leading supplier, at 2.6 million tonnes. However, the volume was around 0.3 million tonnes lower compared to one month earlier. This was followed by Canada, which was reported as the origin for 2.2 million tonnes of transiting cargoes, some 0.5 million tones higher month-on-month. Around 1.5 million tonnes originated from the European Union, broadly unchanged from the end of October, while volumes from the United States and Australia fell sharply month-on-month, to 0.7 million tonnes (1.6 million tonnes one month earlier) and 0.5 million tonnes (0.8 million tonnes), respectively. In contrast, flows from Argentina rose to 1.1 million tonnes, almost double the volume reported one month earlier. 

   

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Key insights

Exporter line ups

• Available port data pointed to accelerating vessel loading activity in Australia, where around 250,000 tonnes was expected to be dispatched as of the end of November, including to China, Indonesia and Singapore. 
• The port line-up in Argentina also increased compared to one month earlier, to around 130,000 tonnes, including cargoes destined for Brazil, Chile, Peru and Vietnam. 
• Around 120,000 tonnes was loading at Canadian ports, including around 90,000 tonnes for Algeria and Nigeria. 
• In Ukraine, two vessels carrying a combined 67,000 tonnes of wheat were reportedly preparing for dispatch to Indonesia and Syria, with another 60,000 tonnes for unspecified destinations. 

Key insights

Delivery times (updated at the beginning of each quarter)

• Calculated journey times (from dispatch to unloading) show that the average delivery period for global wheat shipments over the past three seasons (July/June) was close to one month (27 days).
• Among net importing sub-regions, Southern Asia and Southern Africa have the longest delivery periods, averaging 45 and 35 days over the past three seasons, respectively. Average delivery times to Eastern and Middle Africa, as well as other parts of Asia (Eastern, South-eastern and Western Asia) also exceeded 30 days.
• In contrast, the shortest delivery times were reported for such net importing sub-regions as the Caribbean (19 days, on average), Northern Africa (23 days) and Central America (22 days).
• At around 27 days, the global average delivery period during the first half of 2025 (January-June) broadly matched the prior three-year average. 
• In all Asian sub-regions, average periods for cargoes delivered during January-June 2025 were slightly shorter compared to the previous six months and the three-year average. The most notable improvement was noted for Southern Asia, where average delivery duration retreated to more normal level of around 40 days during January-June 2025 after a spike to over 50 days in the latter half of 2024. The average delivery period during January-June 2025 was also 5 days shorter than the three-year average.
• Mixed changes were reported in Africa. While average delivery times for Middle and Southern Africa were similar or modestly shorter compared to the recent average, estimated at around 31 and 35 days, respectively, values for other African sub-regions increased slightly during the past six months. For instance, at 23 days, the average delivery period for Western Africa was 3 days longer compared to the latter half of 2024 and the three-season average, in part because of elevated duration for deliveries from North America and the European Union, notably to Cote d’Ivoire, Mauritania and Nigeria. The period also featured an unusually long delivery from the Russian port of Kavkaz to Nigeria, which reportedly took more than 100 days. 
•  The slight increase in delivery times to Eastern Africa during the first half of 2025, to around 36 days, was partly tied to an increased share of arrivals from the Russian Federation, notably to Tanzania, which are normally associated with longer journey times, compared to shipments from Argentina and Australia. 

•  Although Central America saw some reduction in delivery times during January-June 2025, the average duration of around 27 days was still 5 days longer compared to the prior three-year average, in part reflecting increased delivery periods from the United States and Canada. 

   

Key insights

Role of trade versus delivery time matrix (updated at the beginning of each year)

SSR matrix

• Some regions, including Western Africa, South-eastern Asia, Middle Africa and the Caribbean, are almost totally reliant on imports for their domestic consumption of wheat, although the absolute volume of wheat consumption in the latter two regions is relatively small compared to other areas. At the same time, South-eastern Asia and Middle Africa have one of the longest average delivery times of around 30 days (based on calculated journey-related data over the past three seasons).

Regional timeline chart

• Calculated indicators show a marginal improvement in production-to-consumption levels in Eastern and Southern Africa over the past decade, with the increase in the former sub-region mainly linked to Ethiopia (from 79% in 2015/16 to 86% in 2024/25) and Zimbabwe (from 31% to 64%). Still, sub-regional numbers indicate that domestic production covers less than half of local consumption for all parts of Africa, with the level for Middle Africa close to zero. 

5-year average chart

• The five-year average production to consumption ratios have declined for most parts of Asia over the past decade, with the largest drop for Eastern Asia, where the indicator slid from the average of around 95% during 2015/16-2019/20 to 88% over the following five years. This mainly reflects a falling ratio for China, from 110% in 2015/16 to 95% in 2024/25.
• Conversely, the level of production-to-consumption has improved markedly for South America and Other Europe over the past five years (largely owing to growing production in Argentina, Brazil and the Russian Federation, respectively), with the former region’s average ratio edging above 100% over the past five years.