Wheat maritime trade & food security

General points – Exports/Imports 

• At around 5.6 million tonnes, estimated global seaborne wheat deliveries during 16-31 March were similar to the volume recorded during the first half of the month, with accumulated shipments over the first eight months of the 2024/25 (July/June) season reaching 103.6 million tonnes, down by 5% year-on-year and 6% short of the prior three-year average.
• The latest shipping data indicates a widening lag in trade flows against the previous season, largely linked to slowing imports by some sub-regions in Asia, with accumulated arrivals to that region as of the end of March down by 23% year-on-year. In contrast, deliveries to most other regions, including Africa, remain generally robust, with cumulative imports by the latter up by 10% year-on-year. 

Key insights

Imports vs prices/ freight

• Although fears of tariff-related trade disruptions continued to weigh on global commodity prices, including for grains and oilseeds, average wheat export prices firmed slightly during the second half of March. After touching a four-week low, the wheat sub-Index of the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI), which tracks fob quotations across the main origins, edged higher recently, with prices in the Black Sea region climbing amid tightening exportable supplies, while an uptick in international demand buoyed values in the EU (France). Furthermore, export quotations in the US received underpinning from the recent lower than anticipated USDA’s 2025/26 all-wheat planting projection.
• Average dry bulk freight costs (including fuel), as measured by the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Freight Index (GOFI), also firmed in the latter half of March, in part linked to solid grains and oilseeds dispatches from South America to Asia. Positive sentiment was also noted in the Pacific amid steady demand for deliveries from Australia, as well as tightening tonnage availability in Indonesia. Although the GOFI touched a four-month high recently, values were still 15% lower year-on-year as of the end of March. 

Bi-weekly / cumulative imports/exports

• Although the bi-weekly volume of seaborne wheat imports of 5.6 million tonnes was little changed from the fortnight before, the data showed mixed trends across the main importing sub-regions, with slowing imports by Asia contrasting with larger deliveries to Africa. 
• All African sub-regions, barring Southern Africa, witnessed increased wheat arrivals towards the end of the March. Deliveries to Northern Africa during 16-31 March totalled 1.1 million tonnes, up by 0.2 million tonnes from the fortnight before, mainly reflecting larger volumes for Morocco and Sudan. Still, 2024/25 (July/June) accumulated deliveries to the former country were estimated to be slightly below last year, at 4.0 million tonnes (4.2 million tonnes one year ago). Imports to date by Libya and Tunisia were also slightly behind last year as of the end of March, while those by Algeria, Sudan and Egypt were higher year-on-year, with the largest annual increase noted for the latter. While accumulated arrivals to Egypt were reported at around 8.1 million tonnes, the actual number could be higher, as some coaster vessel deliveries may not be reflected in shipping data. 
• With around 270,000 tonnes received during 16-31 March (170,000 tonnes during prior fortnight), 2024/25 (July/June) cumulative deliveries to Eastern Africa reached 5.3 million tonnes, up by 10% year-on-year. The recent upturn was chiefly linked to Kenya, where accumulated imports were estimated at 2.3 million tonnes, up by 0.3 million tonnes year-on-year. Imports by Djibouti, Mauritius and Mozambique were also above their year ago levels. In contrast, Reunion, Tanzania, Eritrea and Somalia have been smaller wheat buyers so far this season, but with the latter two countries normally complementing their grain imports by overseas flour purchases.
• Deliveries to Western Africa also rose over the past fortnight, to around 513,000 tonnes (440,000 tonnes prior fortnight), lifting the marketing year (July/June) tally to 8.3 million tonnes, a 19% annual increase. All countries in that sub-region, except for Senegal, have sourced larger volumes since the start of the season compared to last year, with especially brisk demand noted from Nigeria, where imports as of 31 March were estimated at 4.4 million tonnes, up by 0.7 million tonnes year-on-year. Deliveries to date to Senegal were reported at around 770,000 tonnes (890,000 tonnes year ago), with this season’s reduced imports from the EU and the Russian Federation not fully compensated by larger arrivals from South America (Argentina, Brazil). 
• Middle and Southern Africa are relatively smaller import sub-regions in Africa, with 2024/25 (July/June) deliveries through the end of March totalling 2.0 million tonnes (+53% year-on-year) and 1.8 million tonnes (+32%), respectively.  The sharp annual increase in purchases by Middle Africa is primarily linked to Angola and the Republic of the Congo, with arrivals to the latter boosted by 85,000 tonnes over the past fortnight, to a cumulative 325,000 tonnes (175,000 tonnes year ago).   
• In Asia, the recent shipping data pointed to a sharp drop in arrivals to Southern Asia, after an earlier upturn. Only 51,000 tonnes was reportedly delivered to Sri Lanka during 16-31 March (394,000 tonnes prior fortnight), lifting accumulated imports by that country to around 670,000 tonnes, more than double year-on-year amid surging arrivals from the Russian Federation. However, with purchases by other countries running well behind last season, total 2024/25 (July/June) shipments to Southern Africa, at 4.8 million tonnes, were only about half of the previous year’s volume.
• A marked decline in deliveries was also reported in South-eastern Asia, which received around 0.9 million tonnes, down from 1.4 million tonnes in the fortnight before. At 18.4 million tonnes, cumulative arrivals to the Asian sub-region as of 31 March were down by 2% year-on-year, mainly because smaller imports by Indonesia were only partly compensated by brisker demand from Thailand and Vietnam. 
• Around 470,000 tonnes was delivered to Western Asia over the past fortnight, down from 570,000 tonnes in the fortnight before. Sub-region’s accumulated imports reached 9.9 million tonnes, with the 24% annual decline reflecting smaller arrivals to all countries, except for Jordan, Lebanon and Yemen. 
• In contrast to other Asian sub-regions, which witnessed slowing deliveries, 16-31 March shipments to Eastern Asia more than doubled from the prior fortnight on larger arrivals to China, Japan and South Korea. Still, with unusually slow imports to date China, total imports by Eastern Asia as of 31 March of 8.8 million tonnes were one-third lower year-on-year. 

Key insights

Expected arrivals

• The global volume of cargoes in transit as of the end of March was estimated at around 9.8 million tonnes, 0.9 million tonnes higher than in mid-March, but still short of the January peak of more than 11.0 million tonnes The total reported volume included 8.3 million tonnes with specified destinations (7.8 million tonnes as at mid-March).
• The increase from two weeks earlier was partly tied to a rising line-up for Asia, estimated at 4.4 million tonnes, up by 0.5 million tonnes from mid-March. The data for Eastern Asia featured an unusually large volume for Hong Kong, potentially suggesting that ultimate destinations for some cargoes might be changed at a later stage. 
• In Western Asia, additional cargoes were reported in the line-up for Saudi Arabia, while in South-eastern Asia, increasing line-ups were noted for most countries, notably for Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines. 
• In contrast, the volume destined for Southern Asia dropped from two weeks earlier, with smaller amounts reported for Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. 
• At around 2.7 million tonnes, aggregate transits to Africa were broadly steady from mid-March, including 1.3 million tonnes destined for Northern Africa, 0.6 million tonnes for Eastern Africa and 0.5 million tonnes for Western Africa. While the volume for Northern Africa increased compared to mid-March, transits to Western Africa declined markedly, chiefly because of subsiding flows to Guinea, Nigeria and Senegal. 
• On the export side, Canada remained the leading origin for reported cargoes in transit for a third successive week, accounting for around 1.9 million tonnes (1.6 million tonnes two weeks earlier). This was followed by the US at 1.3 million tonnes, more than double compared to two weeks before. The Russian Federation was cited as the origin for around 1.1 million tonnes of cargoes in transit (1.0 million tonnes), with around 1.1 million tonnes originating from each the EU and Argentina, down from 1.2 million tonnes and 1.3 million tonnes as of mid-March, respectively. Around 0.9 million tonnes was reported to be in transit from Australia, broadly unchanged from two weeks earlier, with Brazil accounting for around 0.4 million tonnes, down from 0.7 million tonnes as of mid-March. 

Key insights

Exporter line ups

• The recent shipping data pointed to a declining port line-up in Argentina, with two vessels reported to be loading a combined 90,000 tonnes for Nigeria and Brazil.  This was down from around 200,000 tonnes two weeks earlier. 
• In contrast, a rising line-up was noted in Australia, estimated at around 540,000 tonnes (240,000 tonnes two weeks before). This included around 80,000 tonnes for Eastern Africa, 165,000 tonnes for South-eastern Asia, 75,000 tonnes for Western Asia, 16,000 tonnes for the European Union and around 200,000 tonnes for unspecified destinations. 
• A slight upturn in loadings was reported at Canadian ports, where around 280,000 tonnes was expected be shipped in the coming days (220,000 tonnes two weeks earlier), including around 50,000 tonnes for Colombia, 35,000 tonnes for Malaysia and 110,000 tonnes for Bangladesh. 
• In the EU, the line-up in Latvia included a rare cargo of 32,000 tonnes destined for Mexico.

Key insights

Delivery times (updated at the beginning of each month)

• Calculated journey times (from dispatch to unloading) show that the average delivery period for global wheat shipments over the past three seasons (Jul/Jun) was close to one month (27 days). 
• Among net importing sub-regions, Southern Asia and Sothern Africa have the longest delivery periods, averaging 45 and 35 days over the past three seasons, respectively. Average delivery times to Eastern and Middle Africa and other parts of Asia (Eastern, South-eastern and Western Asia) also exceeded 30 days. In contrast, the shortest delivery times were reported for such net importing sub-regions as the Caribbean (18 days, on average), Northern Africa (22 days) and Central America (22 days). 
• At around 30 days, the global average delivery period during the first quarter (January-March) of 2025 was slightly above the prior three-year average, with significantly longer journey times reported for Southern and Western Asia, Central and North America, as well as parts of Africa. 
• At 37 days, average delivery times to Eastern Africa were estimated to be 4 days longer than the three-year average. This was partly tied to an increased share of deliveries from the Russian Federation, notably to Kenya and Tanzania, which are normally associated with longer journey times, compared to shipments from Argentina and Australia. 
• Longer than average delivery times were also reported for Western Africa during January-March 2025, averaging 30 days (23 days during prior three seasons). The increase partly reflected unusually long delivery times from Australia to Ghana, as well as elevated duration for deliveries to Nigeria and Cote d’Ivoire. 
• Although Central America enjoys one of the shortest delivery periods among net importing sub-regions, the average voyage duration to that area during January-March 2025 of around 28 days was 6 days above the prior three-year average, partly owing to increased delivery durations from the US and Canada to El Salvador and Guatemala. 
• Journey times for deliveries to Southern Asia have fluctuated significantly over the past three years. After surging from the normal 34-35 days to more than 50 days during 2023 amid unloading delays at Iranian ports, journey durations retreated to around 42 days in the first half of 2024, but increased again more recently, with the average journey time during January-March 2025 estimated at 57 days. Similar to some earlier periods, the first quarter of 2025 featured unusually long delivery times from the Russian Federation (Kavkaz) to Iran (Bandar Imam Khomeini), reaching four months in some cases. 

Key insights

Role of trade versus delivery time matrix (updated at the beginning of each month)

SSR matrix

• Some regions, including Western Africa, South-eastern Asia, Middle Africa and the Caribbean, are almost totally reliant on imports for their domestic consumption of wheat, although the absolute volume of wheat consumption in the latter two regions is relatively small compared to other areas. At the same time, South-eastern Asia and Middle Africa have one of the longest average delivery times of around 30 days (based on calculated journey-related data over the past three seasons).

Regional timeline chart

• Calculated indicators suggest little improvement in production to consumption ratios over the past decade, on average, for some net importing regions, including all parts of Africa. All African regions have average ratios of less than 50%, with particularly low indicators noted for Middle and Western Africa. 

5-year average chart

• The five-year average production to consumption ratios have declined slightly for some parts of Asia over the past decade. Notably, the indicator for Eastern Asia dropped from the average of around 100% during 2014/15-2018/19 to 89% over the following five years, mainly reflecting a falling ratio for China.
• In contrast the level of production-to-consumption improved markedly for South America and Other Europe over the past five years (largely owing to growing production in Argentina, Brazil and the Russian Federation, respectively), with the former region’s average ratio over the past five years reaching 100%.