Wheat maritime trade & food security

General points – Exports/Imports 

• At around 6.0 million tonnes, estimated global seaborne deliveries during the first half of May were only modestly below the volume reported during the prior fortnight. However, the tally fell short of the comparable volume one year ago for a fifth consecutive fortnight (-27% on the same period last year). As a result, the annual lag in global 2024/25 (July/June) deliveries, which were estimated at 122.9 million tonnes as at 15 May, widened to 7% (5% a fortnight earlier). The marketing year total was also 6% below the prior three-year average. 
• The annual gap in world maritime imports is chiefly tied to reduced arrivals to Asia (-25% year-on-year), which are only partly countered by larger shipments to Africa (+8%) and other regions, notably to South America (+17%). 

Key insights

Imports vs prices/ freight

• Ideas of adequate nearby availabilities and outlooks for sizable northern hemisphere crops continued to weigh on world wheat export prices during May. The wheat-sub-Index of the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) – a measure of fob quotations at key wheat origins – touched a two-month low during the first half of May and was quoted 12% lower year-on-year as at mid-month. 
• Firming marine fuel prices underpinned a modest increase in average freight costs on major grains and oilseeds routes during the past two weeks, as evidenced by movements in the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Freight Index (GOFI). Despite the uptick, the Index remained 18% lower year-on-year amid softer timecharter (vessel hire) rates across the main vessel segments (Panamax, Supramax, Handysize).  

Bi-weekly / cumulative imports/exports

• The past two weeks featured mixed import trends across Africa, albeit as deliveries by all sub-regions remained ahead of last year. 1-15 May arrivals to Northern Africa, the world’s largest importing sub-region, retreated slightly compared to the prior two weeks, to 1.2 million tonnes, as Algeria, Egypt, Libya and Morocco received smaller volumes. At 25.6 million tonnes, 2024/25 (July/June) accumulated imports by that sub-region through mid-May (not fully covering small vessel deliveries) were 2% higher year-on-year, as lower purchases by Egypt, Libya and Tunisia were countered by larger deliveries elsewhere. 
• Fortnightly arrivals to Eastern Africa have also declined compared to the prior two weeks, dropping to 213,000 tonnes during 1-15 May (290,000 tonnes prior fortnight). Despite the recent slowdown, total imports by that sub-region of around 6.0 million tonnes were still 2% higher year-on-year, mainly because of brisker imports by Mozambique. However, imports by most other countries in Eastern Africa are now estimated to be below last season, with the largest declines in absolute terms noted for Tanzania and Reunion. 
• In contrast, 1-15 May arrivals to Western Africa more than doubled compared to the latter half of April, to 670,000 tonnes. While many countries saw increased deliveries over the period, the rise was particularly sharp for Nigeria, the sub-region’s leading importer, which has sourced around 5.2 million tonnes from the start of the July-June season, up by 0.8 million tonnes year-on-year. At around 10.0 million tonnes, 2024/25 cumulative imports by Western Africa were up by 20% year-on-year as at mid-May, with all countries, aside from Guinea and Senegal, sourcing larger volumes this season. 
• Among other African sub-regions, a strong rise in deliveries was also noted for Middle Africa, notably for Angola and the Republic of the Congo. Total sub-regional imports reached 2.3 million tonnes, up by 43% year-on-year, with larger deliveries reported to all destinations, barring Gabon. 
• Notable changes elsewhere included a sizable drop in deliveries to South-eastern Asia, the world’s second largest importing sub-region. 1-15 May arrivals were estimated at around 0.7 million tonnes, down by 0.5 million tonnes from the prior fortnight, on steep declines for Indonesia and the Philippines. Accumulated imports by both countries, estimated at 8.0 million tonnes and 4.7 million tonnes, respectively, are well below last season’s elevated levels. With softer demand also noted from Malaysia, accumulated sub-regional imports as at mid-May of 21.1 million tonnes were 6% lower year-on-year. 
• Despite an upturn during the first half of May, 2024/25 (July/June) cumulative imports by Eastern and Southern Asia remained well behind last season, estimated at 11.0 million tonnes (-36% year-on-year) and 5.4 million tonnes (-49%), respectively. 
• At 12.1 million tonnes, imports to date by Western Asia are 22% lower year-on-year. While the bulk of the decline is tied to this season’s restricted purchases by Turkey, most other countries in that sub-region, including Iraq, Israel, United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, are also reported to be smaller buyers. 

Key insights

Expected arrivals

• The volume of global cargoes in transit edged fractionally lower during the first half of May, to around 9.4 million tonnes (9.5 million tonnes as of end-April), including 8.0 million tonnes with specified destinations (8.6 million tonnes).
• The line-up for Arica dropped by around 0.4 million tons, to 2.5 million tonnes, largely reflecting subsiding flows to Western Africa, most notably to Nigeria. 
• In contrast, cargo flows to Asia edged higher, to 4.2 million tonnes (4.0 million tonnes two weeks earlier). This included 1.2 million tonnes to each Eastern and South-eastern Asia.
• Among the main exporters, Canada was again the leading origin for cargoes in transit, accounting for around 2.1 million tonnes, unchanged from the end of April. This was followed by the United States at 1.5 million tonnes, a little lower that two weeks earlier. Australia and the European Union each accounted for around 1.3 million tonnes of cargoes in transit, while the line-up from the Russian Federation was estimated at 0.9 million tonnes, down from 1.2 million tonnes as of 30 April. 

Key insights

Exporter line ups

• The latest shipping data pointed to expanding port line-ups in Australia, where around 660,000 tonnes was reportedly being prepared for dispatch to various destinations as at mid-May (460,000 tonnes as of end-April). The total included 57,000 tonnes for China, 55,000 tonnes for Japan and 57,000 tonnes for the Philippines. 
• Around 100,000 tonnes was loading at Argentine ports, including 36,000 tonnes for Brazil. 
• The line-up in Canada included around 260,000 tonnes destined for Asia (China, South Korea, Indonesia) and Brazil. 
• Around 100,000 tonnes was shown in the port line-up in the United States, including 32,000 tonnes for the Dominican Republic, and 36,000 tonnes for each Panama and Chile. 

Key insights

Delivery times (updated at the beginning of each month)

• Calculated journey times (from dispatch to unloading) show that the average delivery period for global wheat shipments over the past three seasons (Jul/Jun) was close to one month (27 days). 
• Among net importing sub-regions, Southern Asia and Sothern Africa have the longest delivery periods, averaging 45 and 35 days over the past three seasons, respectively. Average delivery times to Eastern and Middle Africa and other parts of Asia (Eastern, South-eastern and Western Asia) also exceeded 30 days. In contrast, the shortest delivery times were reported for such net importing sub-regions as the Caribbean (18 days, on average), Northern Africa (22 days) and Central America (22 days). 
• At around 30 days, the global average delivery period during the first quarter (January-March) of 2025 was slightly above the prior three-year average, with significantly longer journey times reported for Southern and Western Asia, Central and North America, as well as parts of Africa. 
• At 37 days, average delivery times to Eastern Africa were estimated to be 4 days longer than the three-year average. This was partly tied to an increased share of deliveries from the Russian Federation, notably to Kenya and Tanzania, which are normally associated with longer journey times, compared to shipments from Argentina and Australia. 
• Longer than average delivery times were also reported for Western Africa during January-March 2025, averaging 30 days (23 days during prior three seasons). The increase partly reflected unusually long delivery times from Australia to Ghana, as well as elevated duration for deliveries to Nigeria and Cote d’Ivoire. 
• Although Central America enjoys one of the shortest delivery periods among net importing sub-regions, the average voyage duration to that area during January-March 2025 of around 28 days was 6 days above the prior three-year average, partly owing to increased delivery durations from the US and Canada to El Salvador and Guatemala. 
• Journey times for deliveries to Southern Asia have fluctuated significantly over the past three years. After surging from the normal 34-35 days to more than 50 days during 2023 amid unloading delays at Iranian ports, journey durations retreated to around 42 days in the first half of 2024, but increased again more recently, with the average journey time during January-March 2025 estimated at 57 days. Similar to some earlier periods, the first quarter of 2025 featured unusually long delivery times from the Russian Federation (Kavkaz) to Iran (Bandar Imam Khomeini), reaching four months in some cases. 

Key insights

Role of trade versus delivery time matrix (updated at the beginning of each month)

SSR matrix

• Some regions, including Western Africa, South-eastern Asia, Middle Africa and the Caribbean, are almost totally reliant on imports for their domestic consumption of wheat, although the absolute volume of wheat consumption in the latter two regions is relatively small compared to other areas. At the same time, South-eastern Asia and Middle Africa have one of the longest average delivery times of around 30 days (based on calculated journey-related data over the past three seasons).

Regional timeline chart

• Calculated indicators suggest little improvement in production to consumption ratios over the past decade, on average, for some net importing regions, including all parts of Africa. All African regions have average ratios of less than 50%, with particularly low indicators noted for Middle and Western Africa. 

5-year average chart

• The five-year average production to consumption ratios have declined slightly for some parts of Asia over the past decade. Notably, the indicator for Eastern Asia dropped from the average of around 100% during 2014/15-2018/19 to 89% over the following five years, mainly reflecting a falling ratio for China.
• In contrast the level of production-to-consumption improved markedly for South America and Other Europe over the past five years (largely owing to growing production in Argentina, Brazil and the Russian Federation, respectively), with the former region’s average ratio over the past five years reaching 100%.