Wheat maritime trade & food security

Key insights

General points

• Mainly because of moderating deliveries to South-eastern and Southern Asia, global seaborne wheat flows slowed markedly in the first half of April. With volumes also falling short of the same period one year ago, the annual gap in cumulative world seaborne imports has increased to 2%. Still, deliveries to Africa have been trending higher in recent weeks. As at mid-April, cumulative arrivals to all African sub-regions, barring Northern Africa, were ahead of the previous season (although volumes for Eastern and Western Africa trailed the three-year average). 
• According to private vessel tacking data, which cover shipments by ocean-going dry bulk vessels, around 6.5 million tonnes of wheat was delivered to monitored ports around the world during 1-15 April, 10% below the downwardly revised volume over the prior fortnight and 4% lower year-on-year.
• The slowdown in deliveries over the past two weeks was chiefly tied to a continued moderation in imports by South-eastern Asia after bumper purchases earlier in the season, as cumulative arrivals to that sub-region remain 30% higher year-on-year. Deliveries to Southern Asia also recorded a sizable drop in the first half of April, albeit as accumulated imports were still 2% higher year-on-year. 
• At around 114.0 million tonnes, 2023/24 (July/June) accumulated world seaborne imports as at mid-April were 2.3 million tonnes or 2% lower year-on-year. This reflected divergent trends across the main sub-regions, as lagging volumes for Northern Africa, Eastern and Western Asia contrasted with bigger shipments to other parts of Africa and Asia, as well as the Americas. 
• In terms of trade-related costs, average fob export prices for wheat across the main origins were largely steady over the past fortnight, as evidenced by the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (IGC GOI), which remained close to a three-and-a-half-year low. 
• With public holidays in some key regions curtailing trading activity, average freight costs eased since the start of April. As of mid-April, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Freight Index (GOFI), which reflects total voyage costs, including fuel expenses, was quoted at a similar level to one year earlier (compared to an 11% year-on-year increase as of the end of March).

Bi-weekly / cumulative imports/exports

• The first half of April featured a sharp drop in deliveries to Southern Asia, to around 0.2 million tonnes (0.6m prior fortnight), the lowest fortnightly volume for the 2023/24 season (July/June), with around one-half of the volume destined for Pakistan. Seaborne deliveries to the latter receded after robust shipments over the prior six months, reaching a cumulative 3.4 million tonnes (2.5 million tonnes year ago) by mid-April (earlier, the government reportedly signalled a ban on new purchases since the start of April 2024). Volumes destined for Bangladesh also plunged, with no shipments reported from Canada, the Russian Federation and Ukraine over the past two weeks – the main suppliers to that market. The recent data also confirmed relatively small, albeit steady wheat deliveries to India. India’s MY23/24 (July/June) seaborne imports through mid-April were estimated at around 0.5 million tonnes, fractionally lower year-on-year. Notably, Sri Lanka has recently received a Supramax-size cargo from the Russian Federation, marking the first wheat delivery since December 2023, which took MY seaborne imports to around 0.3 million tonnes, a slight year-on-year decline. 
• Imports to South-eastern Asia continued to subside from unusually high levels in the previous months, dropping for a third successive fortnight, to around 0.9 million tonnes (1.4 million tonnes during previous fortnight). All countries in that sub-region, apart from Vietnam, saw slowing deliveries in the first half of April, albeit as cumulative volumes for all importers, barring Brunei and Cambodia – relatively small buyers of wheat – running ahead of last season. Reflecting this, accumulated deliveries to South-eastern Asia were 30% higher year-on-year as of mid-April. 
• In Africa, fortnightly deliveries to Northern Africa remained at a relatively high level after picking up in March, estimated at around 1.6 million tonnes during 1-15 April, mostly destined for Egypt (chiefly from the Russian Federation), as well as Algeria and Morocco (primarily from the EU). As at mid-April, cumulative dry bulk seaborne arrivals to that sub-region were estimated at 21.8 million tonnes, down by 10% year-on-year. However, actual arrivals may be significantly higher due to only partial inclusion of data for small vessel (coaster) deliveries into private shipping data.
• Seaborne wheat deliveries to other African sub-regions edged higher over the past fortnight, led by Eastern Africa, where accumulated MY23/24 (July/June) imports reached 5.4 million tonnes, up by 4% year-on-year. In that sub-region, Kenya remains by far the largest importer of wheat. The country has boosted purchases from the Russian Federation and Argentina this season, more than compensating for lower supplies from Australia, the EU and Ukraine and sourcing 2.3 million tonnes from the global market in the period from 1 July 2023 to 15 April 2024, up by 0.3 million tonnes year-on-year. 
• Likewise, imports by Western Africa accelerated in recent weeks, lifting accumulated arrivals since the start of the season to 7.5 million tonnes, up by 10% year-on-year. The past fortnight featured a sharp rebound in deliveries from the EU (France) to Mauritania, which took cumulative MY23/24 imports by that country to around 510,000 tonnes, up from 330,000 tonnes one year earlier. Shipments to Cote d’Ivoire also increased, although as the MY cumulative total was 12% lower year-on-year as of mid-April. With around 0.2 million tonnes delivered over the past fortnight, accumulated imports by Nigeria of 3.8 million tonnes remained moderately ahead of last year, despite reported economic challenges and subdued domestic demand.
• Elsewhere, accumulated seaborne arrivals to Eastern Asia (14.5 million tonnes) and Western Asia (12.7 million tonnes) continue to trail last season, estimated to be down by 9% and 28% lower year-on-year, respectively. The bulk of respective annual declines are tied to smaller purchases by China and Turkey amid larger domestic availabilities. 

Key insights

Exports vs prices / freight

• Recent vessel tracking data confirmed a continued upturn in international seaborne wheat flows, with an estimated 7.7 million tonnes arriving to monitored ports during 16-31 March, a new fortnightly peak for the 2023/24 July/June season and 6% up from the prior fortnight. However, the volume fell short of imports during the same period one year ago, with the MY23/24 (July/June) cumulative total of around 108.1 million tonnes lagging both last season and the three-year average by 1%. 
• The year-on-year decline in imports continued to be led by softer demand from Northern Africa, Eastern and Western Asia, which contrasted with strong deliveries to the Americas, as well as other parts of Africa and Asia, notably to South-eastern Asia. 
• The second half of March featured divergent trends in commodity export prices and dry bulk freight costs. Amid ideas of sizable nearby availabilities and generally favourable prospects for global 2024/25 output, wheat export quotations at main origins remained subdued in the second half of March. Reflecting this, the wheat sub-Index of the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) dropped to a fresh three-and-a-half-year-low in mid-March and recovered only slightly in the period since. The sub-Index was one-quarter lower year-on-year as of the end of the month. 
• Conversely, average freight costs on the main grains and oilseeds routes, as measured by the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Freight Index (GOFI), edged higher over the same period, with the Index quoted 11% higher year-on-year as of the end of March.

Key insights

• Mainly because of moderating deliveries to South-eastern and Southern Asia, global seaborne wheat flows slowed markedly in the first half of April. With volumes also falling short of the same period one year ago, the annual gap in cumulative world seaborne imports has increased to 2%. Still, deliveries to Africa have been trending higher in recent weeks. As at mid-April, cumulative arrivals to all African sub-regions, barring Northern Africa, were ahead of the previous season (although volumes for Eastern and Western Africa trailed the three-year average). 
• According to private vessel tacking data, which cover shipments by ocean-going dry bulk vessels, around 6.5 million tonnes of wheat was delivered to monitored ports around the world during 1-15 April, 10% below the downwardly revised volume over the prior fortnight and 4% lower year-on-year.
• The slowdown in deliveries over the past two weeks was chiefly tied to a continued moderation in imports by South-eastern Asia after bumper purchases earlier in the season, as cumulative arrivals to that sub-region remain 30% higher year-on-year. Deliveries to Southern Asia also recorded a sizable drop in the first half of April, albeit as accumulated imports were still 2% higher year-on-year. 
• At around 114.0 million tonnes, 2023/24 (July/June) accumulated world seaborne imports as at mid-April were 2.3 million tonnes or 2% lower year-on-year. This reflected divergent trends across the main sub-regions, as lagging volumes for Northern Africa, Eastern and Western Asia contrasted with bigger shipments to other parts of Africa and Asia, as well as the Americas. 
• In terms of trade-related costs, average fob export prices for wheat across the main origins were largely steady over the past fortnight, as evidenced by the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (IGC GOI), which remained close to a three-and-a-half-year low. 
• With public holidays in some key regions curtailing trading activity, average freight costs eased since the start of April. As of mid-April, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Freight Index (GOFI), which reflects total voyage costs, including fuel expenses, was quoted at a similar level to one year earlier (compared to an 11% year-on-year increase as of the end of March).

Bi-weekly / cumulative imports/exports

• The first half of April featured a sharp drop in deliveries to Southern Asia, to around 0.2 million tonnes (0.6m prior fortnight), the lowest fortnightly volume for the 2023/24 season (July/June), with around one-half of the volume destined for Pakistan. Seaborne deliveries to the latter receded after robust shipments over the prior six months, reaching a cumulative 3.4 million tonnes (2.5 million tonnes year ago) by mid-April (earlier, the government reportedly signalled a ban on new purchases since the start of April 2024). Volumes destined for Bangladesh also plunged, with no shipments reported from Canada, the Russian Federation and Ukraine over the past two weeks – the main suppliers to that market. The recent data also confirmed relatively small, albeit steady wheat deliveries to India. India’s MY23/24 (July/June) seaborne imports through mid-April were estimated at around 0.5 million tonnes, fractionally lower year-on-year. Notably, Sri Lanka has recently received a Supramax-size cargo from the Russian Federation, marking the first wheat delivery since December 2023, which took MY seaborne imports to around 0.3 million tonnes, a slight year-on-year decline. 
• Imports to South-eastern Asia continued to subside from unusually high levels in the previous months, dropping for a third successive fortnight, to around 0.9 million tonnes (1.4 million tonnes during previous fortnight). All countries in that sub-region, apart from Vietnam, saw slowing deliveries in the first half of April, albeit as cumulative volumes for all importers, barring Brunei and Cambodia – relatively small buyers of wheat – running ahead of last season. Reflecting this, accumulated deliveries to South-eastern Asia were 30% higher year-on-year as of mid-April. 
• In Africa, fortnightly deliveries to Northern Africa remained at a relatively high level after picking up in March, estimated at around 1.6 million tonnes during 1-15 April, mostly destined for Egypt (chiefly from the Russian Federation), as well as Algeria and Morocco (primarily from the EU). As at mid-April, cumulative dry bulk seaborne arrivals to that sub-region were estimated at 21.8 million tonnes, down by 10% year-on-year. However, actual arrivals may be significantly higher due to only partial inclusion of data for small vessel (coaster) deliveries into private shipping data.
• Seaborne wheat deliveries to other African sub-regions edged higher over the past fortnight, led by Eastern Africa, where accumulated MY23/24 (July/June) imports reached 5.4 million tonnes, up by 4% year-on-year. In that sub-region, Kenya remains by far the largest importer of wheat. The country has boosted purchases from the Russian Federation and Argentina this season, more than compensating for lower supplies from Australia, the EU and Ukraine and sourcing 2.3 million tonnes from the global market in the period from 1 July 2023 to 15 April 2024, up by 0.3 million tonnes year-on-year. 
• Likewise, imports by Western Africa accelerated in recent weeks, lifting accumulated arrivals since the start of the season to 7.5 million tonnes, up by 10% year-on-year. The past fortnight featured a sharp rebound in deliveries from the EU (France) to Mauritania, which took cumulative MY23/24 imports by that country to around 510,000 tonnes, up from 330,000 tonnes one year earlier. Shipments to Cote d’Ivoire also increased, although as the MY cumulative total was 12% lower year-on-year as of mid-April. With around 0.2 million tonnes delivered over the past fortnight, accumulated imports by Nigeria of 3.8 million tonnes remained moderately ahead of last year, despite reported economic challenges and subdued domestic demand.
• Elsewhere, accumulated seaborne arrivals to Eastern Asia (14.5 million tonnes) and Western Asia (12.7 million tonnes) continue to trail last season, estimated to be down by 9% and 28% lower year-on-year, respectively. The bulk of respective annual declines are tied to smaller purchases by China and Turkey amid larger domestic availabilities. 

Key insights

Expected arrivals

• The volume of wheat cargoes in transit as at mid-April was estimated at 13.2 million tonnes, a little lower compared to the end of March and markedly below the February peak of 13.7 million tonnes. The tally included around 10.1 million tonnes with specified destinations.
• Asia remained the main destination region, with 5.8 million tonnes reported to be en-route. This included around 1.9 million tonnes for South-eastern Asia. While deliveries to that sub-region slowed recently, the volumes may pick up again in the coming weeks as data indicated rising line-ups for Indonesia (0.8 million tonnes), the Philippines (0.6 million tonnes) and Vietnam (0.3 million tonnes).
• The line-up for Southern Asia was estimated at around 1.0 million tonnes, with the bulk (0.8 million tonnes) destined for Bangladesh, with the rest reportedly shipped to India, Iran and Sri Lanka. 
• Out of total expected arrivals to Eastern Asia of 1.8 million tonnes, around one-half was destined for China, almost equally split between three origins – Australia, the EU (France) and the US. 
• At around 2.9 million tonnes, transiting volumes to Africa declined by around 0.7 million tonnes compared to the end of March, chiefly owing to retreating flows to Northern Africa (mainly Egypt) and Eastern Africa (primarily Djibouti, Mozambique and Tanzania). 

Key insights

Exporter line ups

• Ongoing loadings at Russian ports as of mid-April featured a Panamax cargo destined for Egypt, with smaller volumes reported for Algeria and Djibouti. 
• Port line-ups in Argentina included around 40,000 tonnes for Brazil and 20,000 tonnes for Guatemala. 

Key insights

Delivery times (updated at the beginning of each month)

• Calculated journey times (from dispatch to unloading) show that the average delivery period for global wheat shipments over the past three seasons (Jul/Jun) was close to one month (27 days). 
• Among net importing sub-regions, Southern Asia and Sothern Africa have the longest delivery periods, averaging 41 and 34 days over the past three seasons, respectively. The shortest delivery times are reported for such net importing sub-regions as the Caribbean and Central America, averaging 19 and 21 days, respectively. 
• At around 29 days, the global average delivery period during January-March 2024 was slightly longer than the average for the prior three years. For instance, delivery times for Eastern Africa were estimated to be longer than normal, averaging 37 days (three-year average at 31 days). This was partly linked the recent long-haul delivery from Canada (western coast) to Reunion and Tanzania, as well as to shipments from the EU (France, Lithuania) via southern Africa to Mauritius and Tanzania. Recent deliveries from the Russian Federation to Tanzania also had longer than normal delivery periods, even though the vessels took the shortest route via the Suez Canal.
• Longer than normal delivery times were also noted for Middle Africa and Central America during January-March 2024, averaging 36 days (three-year average at 30 days) and 23 days (21 days), respectively. Recent deliveries to Central America took longer than normal, amid rising deliveries of Russian wheat to Mexico. 
• The upswing in delivery times to Western Asia during January-March 2024, to around 44 days (29 days three-season average), chiefly reflected unusually long journey times for some small shipments from the Russian port of Kavkaz to Syria.
• In contrast, delivery periods for Southern Asia have retreated in 2024 after spiking in the year before amid unloading delays at Iranian ports.

Key insights

Role of trade versus delivery time matrix (updated at the beginning of each month)

SSR matrix

• Some regions, including Western Africa, South-eastern Asia, Middle Africa and the Caribbean, are almost totally reliant on imports for their domestic consumption of wheat, although the absolute volume of wheat consumption in the latter two regions is relatively small compared to other areas. At the same time, South-eastern Asia and Middle Africa have one of the longest average delivery times at 30 and 31 days, respectively (based on calculated journey-related data over the past three seasons).

Regional timeline chart

• Calculated indicators suggest little improvement in production to consumption ratios over the past decade, on average, for some net importing regions, including all parts of Africa. All African regions have average ratios of less than 50%. 

5-year average chart

• The five-year average production to consumption ratios have declined slightly for some parts of Asia over the past decade, but improved markedly for South America and Other Europe (largely owing to growing production in Argentina, Brazil and Russia, respectively), with the former region’s average ratio over the past five years reaching 100%.