Wheat maritime trade & food security

General points – Exports/Imports 

Seaborne wheat trade continued to expand during September, amid rising deliveries from the Russian Federation to Western Asia and increasing arrivals to Africa. However, with some importers said to be waiting for the arrival of southern hemisphere harvests and potentially lower prices, global 2025/26 (July/June) maritime imports as of 30 September were 7% lower than one year ago, with deliveries to Asia and Africa down by 11% and 5% year-on-year, respectively.

• A continued acceleration in seaborne wheat flows was reported during September, with deliveries to monitored ports during that month totalling 12.4 million tonnes, up by 4% from August and only modestly below the volume reported during September 2024.
• At an estimated 34.9 million tonnes, accumulated global imports during the first three months of the 2025/26 (July/June) marketing year were still 7% lower year-on-year, largely reflecting earlier harvest and shipping delays at some major exporters. Nonetheless, the figure was 3% above the prior three-year average.  
• Cumulative imports by Africa and Asia remained below last year, down by 5% and 11% year-on-year, respectively, albeit as the annual gaps narrowed slightly from one month earlier. Continued mixed trends were noted in Africa, where smaller purchases to date by Northern (-13% year-on-year) and Eastern (-8%) Africa contrasted with stronger demand from Southern (+6%), Middle (+34%) and Western (+14%) sub-regions.  All sub-regions in Asia have been smaller buyers so far this season, with the largest year-on-year decline seen in Southern Asia (-28%).  
  
   

Key insights

Exports vs prices/ freight

• World wheat export prices remained anchored by Ideas of comfortable global availabilities, with pressure amplified recently by larger-than-anticipated official supply estimates in the United States. The wheat sub-Index of the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI), which tracks changes in average nominal fob prices across the main origins, remained close to a five-year low, with values quoted 8% lower year-on-year as of the end of September. However, overall declines in export prices were capped by signs of accelerating international demand, including tenders by several major importers. Furthermore, dollar-based quotations in the Russian Federation were buoyed by a firming rouble and this season’s higher inland logistics costs. 
• In contrast, dry bulk freight rates on the main grains and oilseeds routes posted significant gains during September. This was evidenced by movements in the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Freight Index (GOFI), a measure of total freight costs on selected routes, including marine fuel and port charges. As at 30 September, GOFI was 11% higher year-on-year, with annual gains in average timecharter rates across Panamax, Supramax and Handysize segments outweighing declines in bunker costs. 
   

Bi-weekly / cumulative imports/exports

• Although some buyers reportedly continued to delay purchases in anticipation of southern hemisphere harvests and potentially lower prices, global wheat trade flows picked up during September, estimated at 12.4 million tonnes. 
• The bulk of the 4% increase from the previous month was tied to an upturn in deliveries to Western Asia. Sizable increases were noted in shipments from the Russian Federation to Israel, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and United Arab Emirates, while Jordan saw a pickup in arrivals from the EU (Romania). Still, 2025/26 accumulated imports by Lebanon (from all origins) remained well behind last season, with annual gaps also persisting in Israel, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Among other countries in that sub-region, imports by Syria and Yemen were also lower year-on-year, even though the latter saw sizable deliveries from Ukraine in recent months. In contrast, imports by Iraq and the United Arab Emirates were well ahead of last season, chiefly on increased deliveries from Australia. Reflecting mixed trends across constituent countries, 2025/26 (July/June) aggregated imports by Western Asia were down by 5% year-on-year as of end-September, at around 3.7 million tonnes. 
• In other parts of Asia, a slight upturn in imports was reported in Eastern Asia. Still, 2025/26 accumulated deliveries as of 30 September of around 3.0 million tonnes were 12% lower year-on-year, primarily due to smaller imports by China and South Korea. 
• At around 150,000 tonnes, September arrivals to Southern Asia marked the lowest monthly volume since the start of the July/June season (430,000 tonnes in the month before). This took 2025/26 accumulated seaborne imports to 1.1 million tonnes, a 28% annual decline, largely because of smaller reported deliveries to Bangladesh.
• The data for Africa showed increased deliveries to all sub-regions, barring Northern Arica. Notably, seaborne imports by Southern Africa rose to around 280,000 tonnes (160,000 tonnes during August), as South Africa sourced additional volumes from Australia, the EU (Lithuania, Romania) and the Russian Federation. Consequently, aggregated July-September imports by that sub-region reached 0.7 million tonnes, up by 6% year-on-year.   
• Following the recent upturn in arrivals, 2025/26 (July/June) accumulated maritime imports by Middle and Western Africa as of end-September were estimated at 0.7 million tonnes (+34% year-on-year) and 3.0 million tonnes (+14%), respectively. All countries in Middle Africa have sourced larger volumes during July-September 2025 compared to the same period last year. In Western Africa, smaller purchases to date by Benin, Ghana, Guinea, Mauritania and Togo were outweighed by larger deliveries elsewhere, with particularly strong demand noted from Nigeria. That country was estimated to have received 1.7 million tonnes during the last three months, up around 0.3 million tonnes year-on-year.  
• In contrast to other parts of Africa, deliveries to the Northern part of the continent dipped slightly during September, to 2.8 million tonnes, while 2025/26 (July/June) arrivals reached 7.7 million tonnes, down 13% year-on-year. Accumulated deliveries to Algeria, Egypt, Libya and Tunisia are trailing last season, while those to Morocco and Sudan are higher year-on-year. Notably, July-September wheat arrivals to the latter are estimated at 530,000 tonnes, more than double year-on-year, as the country has boosted grain imports from the Russian Federation. 
   

Key insights

Expected arrivals

• In line with growing trade flows, the volume of wheat cargoes in transit increased sharply during September, with the world total estimated at 12.3 million tonnes, up from 9.2 million tonnes one month earlier. The number included around 10.3 million tonnes with specified destinations (8.0 million tonnes as of the end of August). 
• The data indicated significant increases in cargo flows to both Asia and Africa, pegged at 5.4 million tonnes (3.9 million tonnes as at end-August) and 3.4 million tonnes (2.9 million tonnes), respectively. 
• In Asia, the largest upturn was reported for Southern Asia, where the line-up was estimated at 1.2 million tonnes as of 30 September, up from 0.5 million tonnes one month earlier. Flows to Bangladesh edged higher for a fifth successive fortnight which, given the lack of cargo arrivals during September, could indicate potential shipping delays or logistical bottlenecks at discharge. Fresh cargoes were also reported for India, Iran and Sri Lanka. 
• In Western Asia, rising line ups were noted across all countries, barring Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, as the total volume reached around 1.0 million tonnes, up by 0.2 million tonnes month-on-month. 
• In Africa, there were more cargoes transiting to Eastern Africa (chiefly Djibouti, Mozambique and Tanzania). The data for that sub-region also featured this season’s first 30,000-tonne cargo destined for Madagascar. 
• In terms of origins for reported cargoes in transit, the United States took the leading positon, accounting for 2.7 million tonnes of reported supplies, a sizable increase of 1.0 million tonnes from one month ago. The Russian Federation was the second, with 2.1 million tonnes, 0.3 million tonnes higher than at the end of August. The line-up from the European Union also increased, reported at 1.8 million tonnes, up from 1.5 million tonnes one month ago. The volume from Australia also saw an unseasonal rise, estimated at 1.3 million tonnes (0.9 million tonnes as of end-August). Transits from Canada were also higher than one month before, at around 0.9 million tonnes (0.6 million tonnes). Flows from Argentina increased to 0.6 million tonnes (0.4 million tonnes), while those from Ukraine were reported to be much lower than one month earlier, at 0.4 million tonnes (0.8 million tonnes). 

Key insights

Exporter line ups

• Available port data showed a solid rebound in loadings at Australian ports. Around 310,000 tonnes were reportedly being prepared for dispatch as of 30 September (140,000 tonnes one month earlier), however, few cargoes had specified destinations. 
• Port loadings in the European Union included cargoes for Western Africa (Cote d’Ivoire and Senegal).
• In the Russian Federation, around 100,000 tonnes was expected to be shipped to Bangladesh, Turkey and Yemen, with another 100,000 tonnes scheduled for unknown destinations. 
• Aside from planned deliveries to the Philippines and Japan, ongoing port loadings in the United States featured a 66,000 Panamax cargo reportedly destined for China. 

Key insights

Delivery times (updated at the beginning of each quarter, next update in early October)

• Calculated journey times (from dispatch to unloading) show that the average delivery period for global wheat shipments over the past three seasons (July/June) was close to one month (27 days).
• Among net importing sub-regions, Southern Asia and Southern Africa have the longest delivery periods, averaging 45 and 35 days over the past three seasons, respectively. Average delivery times to Eastern and Middle Africa, as well as other parts of Asia (Eastern, South-eastern and Western Asia) also exceeded 30 days.
• In contrast, the shortest delivery times were reported for such net importing sub-regions as the Caribbean (19 days, on average), Northern Africa (23 days) and Central America (22 days).
• At around 27 days, the global average delivery period during the first half of 2025 (January-June) broadly matched the prior three-year average. 
• In all Asian sub-regions, average periods for cargoes delivered during January-June 2025 were slightly shorter compared to the previous six months and the three-year average. The most notable improvement was noted for Southern Asia, where average delivery duration retreated to more normal level of around 40 days during January-June 2025 after a spike to over 50 days in the latter half of 2024. The average delivery period during January-June 2025 was also 5 days shorter than the three-year average.
• Mixed changes were reported in Africa. While average delivery times for Middle and Southern Africa were similar or modestly shorter compared to the recent average, estimated at around 31 and 35 days, respectively, values for other African sub-regions increased slightly during the past six months. For instance, at 23 days, the average delivery period for Western Africa was 3 days longer compared to the latter half of 2024 and the three-season average, in part because of elevated duration for deliveries from North America and the European Union, notably to Cote d’Ivoire, Mauritania and Nigeria. The period also featured an unusually long delivery from the Russian port of Kavkaz to Nigeria, which reportedly took more than 100 days. 
•  The slight increase in delivery times to Eastern Africa during the first half of 2025, to around 36 days, was partly tied to an increased share of arrivals from the Russian Federation, notably to Tanzania, which are normally associated with longer journey times, compared to shipments from Argentina and Australia. 

•  Although Central America saw some reduction in delivery times during January-June 2025, the average duration of around 27 days was still 5 days longer compared to the prior three-year average, in part reflecting increased delivery periods from the United States and Canada. 

   

Key insights

Role of trade versus delivery time matrix (updated at the beginning of each year)

SSR matrix

• Some regions, including Western Africa, South-eastern Asia, Middle Africa and the Caribbean, are almost totally reliant on imports for their domestic consumption of wheat, although the absolute volume of wheat consumption in the latter two regions is relatively small compared to other areas. At the same time, South-eastern Asia and Middle Africa have one of the longest average delivery times of around 30 days (based on calculated journey-related data over the past three seasons).

Regional timeline chart

• Calculated indicators show a marginal improvement in production-to-consumption levels in Eastern and Southern Africa over the past decade, with the increase in the former sub-region mainly linked to Ethiopia (from 79% in 2015/16 to 86% in 2024/25) and Zimbabwe (from 31% to 64%). Still, sub-regional numbers indicate that domestic production covers less than half of local consumption for all parts of Africa, with the level for Middle Africa close to zero. 

5-year average chart

• The five-year average production to consumption ratios have declined for most parts of Asia over the past decade, with the largest drop for Eastern Asia, where the indicator slid from the average of around 95% during 2015/16-2019/20 to 88% over the following five years. This mainly reflects a falling ratio for China, from 110% in 2015/16 to 95% in 2024/25.
• Conversely, the level of production-to-consumption has improved markedly for South America and Other Europe over the past five years (largely owing to growing production in Argentina, Brazil and the Russian Federation, respectively), with the former region’s average ratio edging above 100% over the past five years.