Wheat maritime trade & food security

General points – Exports/Imports 

• At 6.3 million tonnes, global seaborne deliveries during 16-30 April were slightly higher compared to the prior fortnight’s upwardly adjusted estimate of 6.2 million tonnes. 
• Although the 16-30 April tally was the largest since the second half of February, the volume fell 11% short of the same period last year and was 2% below the prior three-year average. Consequently, 2024/25 (July/June) accumulated seaborne imports during the first ten months of the marketing year reached 117.0 million tonnes, down by 5% from both the last season and the recent average.
• There were few significant changes in terms of sub-regional import trends, as accumulated deliveries to Asia continued to trace last season, estimated to be 24% lower year-on-year as of end-April. Conversely, cumulative deliveries to Africa were up by 11%, with purchases by the Caribbean, as well as Central and South America, also running ahead of the previous year. 

Key insights

Imports vs prices/ freight

• Mostly favourable production prospects across the northern hemisphere and generally tepid nearby demand weighed on global wheat export prices in recent weeks. Reflecting this, the wheat-sub-Index of the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) averaged a little lower in the last half of April compared to the previous fortnight, with values quoted an a one-month low at times. As at end-April, the sub-Index was 5% lower year-on-year. 
• In contrast, total freight costs on the main grains and oilseeds routes rebounded slightly in late April. As activity in the Atlantic picked up after Easter holidays, timecharter values edged higher, outweighing declines in marine fuel costs. Still, values remained below year ago levels, as evidenced by an 18% annual decline in the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Freight Index (GOFI). 

Bi-weekly / cumulative imports/exports

• Although the volume of global maritime shipments during 16-30 April of 6.3 million tonnes was a little higher compared to the previous fortnight, there were mixed trends across the main net importing sub-regions. 
• In Africa, larger deliveries to Northern, Southern and Eastern sub-regions contrasted with subsiding flows to Western and Middle Africa. Notably, deliveries to the latter sub-region halved compared to two weeks earlier, to around 63,000 tonnes, marking the lowest fortnightly volume since August 2024. The decline was mainly tied to the absence of fresh deliveries to Angola, the sub-region’s largest importer, with smaller arrivals also noted for Cameroon. Nonetheless, imports to date by both countries remain ahead of last season, estimated at 1.1 million tonnes (730,000 tonnes one year ago) and 540,000 tonnes (410,000 tonnes), respectively. With imports by the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Republic of the Congo also well above last year, total accumulated arrivals to Middle Africa as at 30 April were estimated at 2.2 million tonnes, up by 51% year-on-year.
• Imports by other African sub-regions also remain ahead of the 2023/24 (July/June) marketing year, including a 5% annual increase for Northern Africa, the world’s largest importing sub-region. The annual rise is chiefly linked to firmer demand from Algeria, Morocco and Sudan, while arrivals to Libya and Tunisia are slightly lower year-on-year. 
• Among other African sub-regions, 2024/25 (July/June) cumulative deliveries to Eastern Africa of 5.8 million tonnes were up by 7% year-on-year as of end-April. However, the increase was primarily linked to larger purchases by only three countries, namely Djibouti, Kenya and Mozambique, while Eritrea, Madagascar, Reunion and Somalia have secured markedly smaller volumes of wheat since the start of the July/June season. 
• Mixed import trends were also noted in Asia in the second half of April, as an upsurge in deliveries to Western Asia contrasted with reduced arrivals elsewhere. The former sub-region received around 0.9 million tonnes during 16-30 April (0.6 million tonnes prior fortnight), the largest fortnightly volume since the start of the July/June season. Many countries in that sub-region saw larger shipments over the past two weeks, with the largest increases for Israel, Jordan, Yemen and Turkey – purchases by the latter rising following the removal of import restrictions. Still, at 11.5 million tonnes, 2024/25 accumulated seaborne imports by Western Asia remain one-fifth below last season, reflecting smaller purchases by all countries, barring Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon and Yemen. 
• 2024/25 cumulative imports by South-eastern Asia were estimated at 20.3 million tonnes as at end-April, down by 3% year-on-year, with a solid year-on-year increase for Thailand outweighed by this season’s softer demand from Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines.
• Accumulated maritime shipments to Eastern and Southern Asia were estimated at 10.4 million tonnes (-35% year-on-year) and 5.0 million tonnes (-51%) as of 30 April, with the bulk of the annual decline attributed to reduced purchases by China and Pakistan, respectively.

Key insights

Expected arrivals

• After edging higher in the first half of the month, the volume of cargoes in transit subsided more recently, estimated at around 9.5 million tonnes as of 30 April (10.2 million tonnes as of mid-April), including 8.6 million tonnes with specified destinations (8.7 million tonnes).
• With the line-up for Arica little changed from two weeks earlier, at around 2.9 million tonnes, the 0.7 million-tonne drop from mid-April was tied to reduced flows to Asia and some smaller importing regions. 
• The total line-up for Asia declined by 0.4 million tonnes from mid-April, to around 4.0 million tonnes, chiefly owing to declines for Eastern Asia (down by 0.2 million tonnes, including for China and Hong Kong) and for South-eastern Asia (down by 0.3 million tonnes, mainly for Indonesia and Vietnam). This was partly offset by an increased volume in transit for Southern Asia, where fresh cargoes were reported for Bangladesh, India and Iran. 
• On the exports side, Canada remained the leading origin for cargoes in transit, accounting for around 2.1 million tonnes (1.9 million tonnes two weeks earlier). This was followed by the United States at 1.6 million tonnes, a sharp 0.6 million-tonne increase compared to mid-April. Australia and the European Union each accounted for around 1.3 million tonnes of cargoes in transit (1.7 million tonnes and 1.2 million tonnes two weeks earlier, respectively), while the line-up from the Russian Federation was estimated at 1.2 million tonnes, down slightly from two weeks before. The volume from Argentina dropped markedly from mid-April, to 0.5 million tonnes (0.8 million tonnes two weeks before). 

Key insights

Exporter line ups

• In Australia, around 460,000 tonnes was reportedly being prepared for shipment to various destinations as at end-April (260,000 tonnes as at mid-April). The tally included, 180,000 tonnes for South-eastern Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand), as well as 50,000 tonnes for South Africa and 21,000 tonnes for Yemen. 
• Around 170,000 tonnes was reportedly loading at Argentine ports, including 73,000 tonnes for Brazil and 26,000 tonnes for Nigeria. 
• The line-up in Canada included 255,000 tonnes destined for South Korea, Indonesia and unspecified destinations. 

Key insights

Delivery times (updated at the beginning of each month)

• Calculated journey times (from dispatch to unloading) show that the average delivery period for global wheat shipments over the past three seasons (Jul/Jun) was close to one month (27 days). 
• Among net importing sub-regions, Southern Asia and Sothern Africa have the longest delivery periods, averaging 45 and 35 days over the past three seasons, respectively. Average delivery times to Eastern and Middle Africa and other parts of Asia (Eastern, South-eastern and Western Asia) also exceeded 30 days. In contrast, the shortest delivery times were reported for such net importing sub-regions as the Caribbean (18 days, on average), Northern Africa (22 days) and Central America (22 days). 
• At around 30 days, the global average delivery period during the first quarter (January-March) of 2025 was slightly above the prior three-year average, with significantly longer journey times reported for Southern and Western Asia, Central and North America, as well as parts of Africa. 
• At 37 days, average delivery times to Eastern Africa were estimated to be 4 days longer than the three-year average. This was partly tied to an increased share of deliveries from the Russian Federation, notably to Kenya and Tanzania, which are normally associated with longer journey times, compared to shipments from Argentina and Australia. 
• Longer than average delivery times were also reported for Western Africa during January-March 2025, averaging 30 days (23 days during prior three seasons). The increase partly reflected unusually long delivery times from Australia to Ghana, as well as elevated duration for deliveries to Nigeria and Cote d’Ivoire. 
• Although Central America enjoys one of the shortest delivery periods among net importing sub-regions, the average voyage duration to that area during January-March 2025 of around 28 days was 6 days above the prior three-year average, partly owing to increased delivery durations from the US and Canada to El Salvador and Guatemala. 
• Journey times for deliveries to Southern Asia have fluctuated significantly over the past three years. After surging from the normal 34-35 days to more than 50 days during 2023 amid unloading delays at Iranian ports, journey durations retreated to around 42 days in the first half of 2024, but increased again more recently, with the average journey time during January-March 2025 estimated at 57 days. Similar to some earlier periods, the first quarter of 2025 featured unusually long delivery times from the Russian Federation (Kavkaz) to Iran (Bandar Imam Khomeini), reaching four months in some cases. 

Key insights

Role of trade versus delivery time matrix (updated at the beginning of each month)

SSR matrix

• Some regions, including Western Africa, South-eastern Asia, Middle Africa and the Caribbean, are almost totally reliant on imports for their domestic consumption of wheat, although the absolute volume of wheat consumption in the latter two regions is relatively small compared to other areas. At the same time, South-eastern Asia and Middle Africa have one of the longest average delivery times of around 30 days (based on calculated journey-related data over the past three seasons).

Regional timeline chart

• Calculated indicators suggest little improvement in production to consumption ratios over the past decade, on average, for some net importing regions, including all parts of Africa. All African regions have average ratios of less than 50%, with particularly low indicators noted for Middle and Western Africa. 

5-year average chart

• The five-year average production to consumption ratios have declined slightly for some parts of Asia over the past decade. Notably, the indicator for Eastern Asia dropped from the average of around 100% during 2014/15-2018/19 to 89% over the following five years, mainly reflecting a falling ratio for China.
• In contrast the level of production-to-consumption improved markedly for South America and Other Europe over the past five years (largely owing to growing production in Argentina, Brazil and the Russian Federation, respectively), with the former region’s average ratio over the past five years reaching 100%.