Wheat maritime trade & food security

General points – Exports/Imports 

After retreating in November, global seaborne wheat trade flows slowed further in December, reflecting steep declines in deliveries to Western Africa and Southern Asia. Nonetheless, cumulative global shipments in the first half of the 2025/26 (July/June) season were marginally ahead of last year. Unlike the previous season, which was marked by stronger African demand, this marketing year’s imports are led by Asia, where accumulated arrivals were estimated to be 8% higher year-on-year as of end-December 2025, compared with a 2% annual drop in seaborne deliveries to the African continent.

• Around 11.9 million tonnes of wheat was delivered by dry bulk vessels worldwide in December 2025, down 1.3 million tonnes from the previous month and marking a second consecutive monthly decline from the seasonal peak recorded in October.
• The flows in December 2025 were also 4% smaller compared to the same month one year ago, when activity accelerated towards the end of the year. Nonetheless, at around 75.0 million tonnes, cumulative shipments during the first half of the 2025/26 (July/June) marketing year were slightly ahead of 74.6 million tonnes reported one year ago.
• The bulk of the annual increase in accumulated shipments is linked to larger deliveries to South America (+15% year-on-year) and parts of Asia, notably to Southern (+16%) and Western Asia (+22%), which more than offset smaller arrivals elsewhere, most notably to Europe (-44%). 
   

Key insights

Exports vs prices/ freight

•  After edging higher in November, average wheat export prices at key origins retreated again more recently, as abundant global availabilities continued to weigh on values, with increased completion noted from Argentina, mostly for lower-protein grades. Fluctuations in row-crop prices were also influential last month, while traders continued to monitor efforts toward a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, which is widely expected to support shipments from the Black Sea region. Against this backdrop, the wheat sub-Index of the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) eased toward the end of December, with average values quoted 4% lower year-on-year. 
• Reflecting softening marine fuel prices and declining daily timecharter rates amid disappointing demand at some key loading areas, average voyage costs on major grains and oilseeds routes fell sharply during the second half of December. Consequently, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Freight Index (GOFI) closed the calendar year at a six-month low. 
  
   

Bi-weekly / cumulative imports/exports

• The estimated 10% month-on-month drop in wheat deliveries in December 2025 was primarily linked to smaller imports by Western Africa and Southern Asia. 
• Deliveries to Western Africa more than halved month-on-month during December, falling to around 0.5 million tonnes and marking the lowest monthly volume since the start of the 2025/26 season. Smaller arrivals were noted to most countries, including a 67% month-on-month drop for Nigeria, by far the largest importer in that sub-region. Following the late-year slowdown, 2025/26 accumulated deliveries to Western Africa were estimated at 5.5 million tonnes, down fractionally year-on-year, with larger imports by Cote d’Ivoire, Liberia, Senegal and Sierra Leone outweighed by weaker demand elsewhere, notably in Mauritania. At 2.9 million tonnes, cumulative deliveries to Nigeria as at end-December were broadly in line with the previous year. 
• After the prior month’s upturn, arrivals to Southern Asia fell sharply in December, estimated at around 0.5 million tonnes (1.2 million previous month). The decline reflected lower volumes destined for Bangladesh and Iran, which collectively received 380,000 tonnes during the past month, down from 1.1 million tonnes in November. Nonetheless, 2025/26 cumulative seaborne imports by both countries remained ahead of last year, estimated at 2.4 million tonnes (2.3 million tonnes one year earlier) and 0.9 million tonnes (0.2 million tonnes) as at end-December, respectively. This more than compensated for reduced purchases by Sri Lanka, with total sub-regional arrivals reported at around 4.0 million tonnes, up 16% year-on-year.
• Among other net importing sub-regions, seaborne flows to Southern Africa, Central/South America and Eastern/South-eastern Asia also declined slightly month-on-month in December. However, there were mixed annual changes, as marginal year-on-year declines for Southern Africa (2025/26 cumulative deliveries at 1.2 million tonnes, -3% year-on-year), Central America (2.2 million tonnes, -1%) and South-eastern Asia (12.1 million tonnes, -1%) contrasted with increases for South America (7.6 million tonnes, +15%) and Eastern Asia (6.1 million tonnes, +3%).
• In contrast, December seaborne flow to Western Asia rebounded strongly from the prior month’s dip, reaching 2.2 million tonnes (1.8 million tonnes in November), taking 2025/26 aggregate deliveries to that sub-region by end-December to 9.7 million tonnes, up 22% year-on-year. The most recent upsurge was driven by Turkey and Yemen, which received 970,000 tonnes (640,000 tonnes previous month) and 510,000 tonnes (270,000 tonnes) during December, mostly from the Russian Federation and Australia/the Black Sea region, respectively. 
• Flows to other net importing sub-regions held broadly steady during December compared to the previous month, with marketing year deliveries to Northern Africa reaching 16.5 million tonnes (-3% year-on-year), accumulated arrivals to Middle Africa at 1.4 million tonnes (-8%) and imports by Eastern Africa at around 4.0 million tonnes (+5%).

Key insights

Expected arrivals

• While actual seaborne deliveries fell in December, the volume of cargoes in transit rose markedly towards the end of the calendar year, indicating an upturn in arrivals during the coming weeks. At 14.3 million tonnes, the calculated volume of cargoes in transit as of end-December was 2.3 million tonnes higher compared to one month earlier and included 11.9 million tonnes with specified destinations (10.0 million tonnes as of end-November). 
• The bulk of the monthly rise was attributed to an upsurge in flows to Asia, estimated at 7.7 million tonnes (5.6 million tonnes), including 2.3 million tonnes destined for each South-eastern and Southern Asia (1.7 million tonnes). 
• In South-eastern Asia a sharp upturn was noted in the line-up to Vietnam, which is expected to receive around 650,000 tonnes over the coming weeks, up from just 90,000 one month ago. 
• In southern Asia, the recent upswing reflected rising flows to Bangladesh (the line-up at 1.6 million tonnes, up from 1.0 million at end-November) and Sri Lanka (280,000 tonnes, up from 130,000 tonnes). For Sri Lanka, accelerating deliveries are likely to help narrow the year-on-year gap in deliveries to date.
• A slight uptick in transiting volumes was reported for Africa, where the aggregate line-up increased to around 3.0 million tonnes (2.8 million tonnes as of end-November). However, this masked a sizable drop in volumes destined for Eastern Africa, to 770,000 tonnes (1.1 million tonnes), including declines for Djibouti, Kenya Mozambique and Tanzania. 

• On the export side, arrivals from the ongoing bumper harvest boosted shipments from Argentina, which became the leading origin for transiting cargoes, accounting for around 2.2 million tonnes, double the level recorded a month earlier. Volumes from Canada remained strong, reported at 2.15 million tonnes (2.2 million tonnes). Around 2.1 million tonnes originated from the Russian Federation, down by 0.5 million tonnes from end-November. The European Union line-up edged higher month-on-month, to around 1.6 million tonnes (1.5 million tonnes), while volumes from the United States and Australia each rose to about 1.3 million tonnes, up from 0.7 million tonnes and 0.5 million tonnes a month earlier, respectively.

   

Key insights

Exporter line ups

• Available port line-up data indicated a general decline in the number of loadings at major ports by the end of the calendar year. Amid few reported vessels, a 30,000-tonne cargo was reportedly preparing for dispatch from Argentina to Indonesia. 

Key insights

Delivery times (updated at the beginning of each quarter)

• Calculated journey times (from dispatch to unloading) show that the average delivery period for global wheat shipments over the past three seasons (July/June) was close to one month (28 days). 
• Among net importing sub-regions, Southern Asia and Sothern Africa have the longest delivery periods, averaging 47 and 36 days over the past three seasons, respectively. Average delivery times to Eastern and Middle Africa, as well as Eastern and South-eastern Asia also exceeded 30 days. 
• In contrast, the shortest delivery times were reported for such net importing sub-regions as the Caribbean (18 days, on average), Northern Africa (22 days), Western Africa (24 days) and Central America (24 days). 
• At around 28 days, the global average delivery period during the second half of 2025 (July-December) broadly matched the prior three-year average. 
• Compared to the prior six months, July-December delivery times were shorter for a number of sub-regions in Asia and Africa, notably for Northern Africa (-4 days) and Western Asia (-2 days), with voyage times for the former also 3 days below the prior three-year average. 
• July-December delivery times to Western Africa, Southern Africa, the Caribbean and Eastern Asia were slightly shorter than in preceding six months. Durations were also below the previous three-year average, except for Western Africa, where the indicator stood three days above the corresponding historical benchmark. This partly reflected longer delivery times from Canada to Nigeria, the key sub-regional importer, with some voyages estimated at more than 70 days. The second half of 2025 also featured unusually long voyages from the Russian Federation’s port of Kavkaz to Nigeria, with multiple discharges at Nigerian ports contributing to extended overall delivery times. 
• In contrast to other net importing sub-regions, average delivery times for Middle Africa rose sharply during the July-December period, to 43 days, up by nine days from the preceding six months and 10 days above the prior three-year average. The increase was partly tied to the inclusion of a rare shipment to Equatorial Guinea originating from the Russian Federation (port of Taman), with delivery time estimated at 74 days. Moreover, delivery durations for some other countries in that sub-region were also longer than in the previous six months. This included Angola, Cameroon and Gabon, partly reflecting extended voyage times from the European Union and the Russian Federation. 

• At around 45 days, average delivery times to Southern Asia during July-December 2025 were about six days longer than in the preceding six months. However, the increase was partly attributable to relatively small volumes destined for India, while voyage times for Bangladesh, which accounted for the bulk of sub-region’s imports during the period, were largely steady at around 35 days. 

   

Key insights

Role of trade versus delivery time matrix (updated at the beginning of each year)

SSR matrix

• Some regions, including Western Africa, South-eastern Asia, Middle Africa and the Caribbean, are almost totally reliant on imports for their domestic consumption of wheat, although the absolute volume of wheat consumption in the latter two regions is relatively small compared to other areas. At the same time, South-eastern Asia and Middle Africa have one of the longest average delivery times of around 30 days (based on calculated journey-related data over the past three seasons).

Regional timeline chart

• Calculated indicators show a marginal improvement in production-to-consumption levels in Eastern and Southern Africa over the past decade, with the increase in the former sub-region mainly linked to Ethiopia (from 79% in 2015/16 to 86% in 2024/25) and Zimbabwe (from 31% to 64%). Still, sub-regional numbers indicate that domestic production covers less than half of local consumption for all parts of Africa, with the level for Middle Africa close to zero. 

5-year average chart

• The five-year average production to consumption ratios have declined for most parts of Asia over the past decade, with the largest drop for Eastern Asia, where the indicator slid from the average of around 95% during 2015/16-2019/20 to 88% over the following five years. This mainly reflects a falling ratio for China, from 110% in 2015/16 to 95% in 2024/25.
• Conversely, the level of production-to-consumption has improved markedly for South America and Other Europe over the past five years (largely owing to growing production in Argentina, Brazil and the Russian Federation, respectively), with the former region’s average ratio edging above 100% over the past five years.