Wheat maritime trade & food security

General points – Exports/Imports 

• Wheat deliveries via maritime routes picked up slightly over the second half of July, reaching 5.3 million tonnes, up around 0.3 million tonnes from the fortnight before. However, with some buyers reportedly holding back purchases amid expectations for a further improvement in Black Sea availabilities and potentially lower prices, the 16-31 July volume was 14% below the same period last year and 10% short of the prior three-year average.
• Following a relatively slow start to the 2025/26 (July/June) marketing year, global seaborne imports during July of 10.3 million tonnes were 11% lower year-on-year. 
• The annual decline includes smaller arrivals to both Africa (-15% year-on-year) and Asia (-17%). These declines more than offset sharp year-on-year increases for some smaller importing sub-regions, including Central America (imports to date up by 123% year-on-year) and Oceania (+66%), as well as brisk early-season demand from buyers in South America (+7%).

Key insights

Imports vs prices/ freight

• Average global wheat export prices continued to move lower in the second half of July on ideas of comfortable nearby availabilities, amid a sharp year-on-year rebound in EU production and improving crop prospects in the main southern hemisphere producers – Australia and Argentina. With export (fob) values also pressured by signs of easing supply shortages in the Black Sea region after earlier harvest delays, the IGC GOI (Grains and Oilseeds Index) wheat sub-Index reached the lowest level in eleven months recently and was quoted 4% lower year-on-year as of the end of July 2025. However, worries about new crop quality, especially in parts of the EU and Russia, have been a notable recent feature.
• Although total dry bulk freight costs on key grains and oilseeds routes, as estimated by the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Freight Index (GOFI), have been easing in recent days, average values in the latter half of July were higher compared to the prior fortnight.  As at the end of July 2025, the GOFI was 6% lower year-on-year, with the largest annual declines on routes out of Brazil, Canada and the EU. 

Bi-weekly / cumulative imports/exports

• Amid delayed new harvest arrivals in the Black Sea region, lagging wheat imports by Northern Africa have been a remarkable market feature since the start of the 2025/26 (July/June) marketing year. Despite the uptick over the past two weeks, reported July arrivals of 1.9 million tonnes were around one-third lower year-on-year and 15% below the recent average. All countries in that sub-region have been smaller buyers, with the largest annual declines noted for Algeria, Egypt and Sudan. It should be noted though, that the latter country normally complements its grain purchases by imports of wheat flour (not covered by the dashboard), notably from Egypt. 
• In other parts of Africa, imports to date by the Eastern sub-region have also been relatively weak.  With only around 150,000 tonnes delivered during the last half of July (350,000 tonnes in the prior fortnight), full-month imports reached around 0.5 million tonnes, down by one-quarter year-on-year. The drop chiefly stems from reduced arrivals to Kenya, Mozambique and Djibouti. For Kenya, the sub-region’s largest importer of wheat, this season’s absence of imports from Canada, the EU and, most notably, from the Russian Federation has been only partly offset by a shift to Australian supplies. 
• In contrast, early-season demand from other African sub-regions, namely Western, Middle and Southern Africa, has been relatively strong during the first month of the new season. Despite the broad-based slowdown in the latter half of July, accumulated 2025/26 deliveries to those sub-regions were up by 30%, 33% and 24% year-on-year as of 31 July, respectively. In Western Africa, only slight year-on-year lags in imports were reported for Benin, Togo and Guinea, which were outweighed by larger arrivals elsewhere. This includes Nigeria, typically the leading buyer in that sub-region, which has shifted its purchases from the EU and the Russian Federation to North America. In Middle Africa, all countries, barring the Republic of the Congo, have secured larger volumes to date compared to last year.
• The recent real-time shipping data pointed to particularly strong demand from Central America during the past month, with 2025/26 accumulated deliveries estimated at around 420,000 tonnes, up more than two-fold year-on-year. Most countries in that sub-region have been brisk buyers of competitively-priced US supplies, including Mexico, where local crop issues have underpinned import needs.
• Conversely, the data shows a continued annual lag in aggregated shipments to Asia. Despite the recent upturn in arrivals to all sub-regions, aside from Southern Asia, total 2025/26 deliveries as of the end of July of 3.6 million tonnes were down by 17% year-on-year. However, there have been mixed trends across constituent sub-regions, as a sharp annual drop of 48% for Southern Asia and significant declines for Eastern (-27% year-on-year) and South-eastern Asia (-19%) contrast with a moderate increase in deliveries to Western Asia (+8%). The latter primarily stems from larger purchases by Iraq and the United Arab Emirates – imports by the latter termed to be partially used for processing and re-exports. 

Key insights

Expected arrivals

• As at the end of July, around 8.2 million tonnes of wheat cargoes was estimated to be en-route to various ports around the world, including 7.1 million tonnes with specified destinations. The global tally was up by around 0.6 million tonnes from two weeks earlier, pointing to some acceleration in global wheat trade after the relatively slow start.
• The increase was almost entirely linked to increasing line-ups for Africa, which was expected to receive around 2.6 million tonnes over the coming weeks (1.8 million tonnes two week before).  Increases were noted across all sub-regions, with Northern and Western Africa the largest recipients. 
• At around 3.6 million tonnes, the aggregate line-up for Asia was only marginally higher compared to mid-July, with more than one-half destined for Eastern and South-eastern parts. 
• In terms of origins for transiting cargoes, Australia and the United States retained the top positions, accounting for 1.8 million tonnes (1.4 million tonnes two weeks earlier) and 1.5 million tonnes (1.5 million tonnes), respectively. This was followed by Canada with around 1.4 million, up slightly from two weeks earlier. The European Union accounted for 1.2 million tonnes, up by 0.2 million tonnes from mid-July. Boosted by new harvest arrivals, the line-up from the Russian Federation doubled over the past fortnight, to around 1.0 million tonnes.

Key insights

Exporter line ups

• The data for port line-ups at major export origins pointed to a significant drop in vessel loadings at Australian ports. Around 200,000 tonnes was reported be preparing for dispatch as of the end of July (500,000 tonnes two weeks earlier), mainly destined for Asia. 
• In Canada, the line-up featured a 40,000-tonne cargo for Bangladesh and another 40,000 tonnes for undisclosed destinations. 
• In the United States, around 90,000 tonnes was expected to be shipped to Chinese Taipei and South Korea. 
• In Argentina, around 90,000 tonnes was expected to be delivered to Chile and unspecified destinations, while in the EU, current loadings in France included a 71,000-tonne cargo for Morocco. 

Key insights

Delivery times (updated at the beginning of each quarter)

• Calculated journey times (from dispatch to unloading) show that the average delivery period for global wheat shipments over the past three seasons (July/June) was close to one month (27 days). 
• Among net importing sub-regions, Southern Asia and Southern Africa have the longest delivery periods, averaging 45 and 35 days over the past three seasons, respectively. Average delivery times to Eastern and Middle Africa, as well as other parts of Asia (Eastern, South-eastern and Western Asia) also exceeded 30 days. 
• In contrast, the shortest delivery times were reported for such net importing sub-regions as the Caribbean (19 days, on average), Northern Africa (23 days) and Central America (22 days). 
• At around 27 days, the global average delivery period during the first half of 2025 (January-June) broadly matched the prior three-year average. 
• In all Asian sub-regions, average periods for cargoes delivered during January-June 2025 were slightly shorter compared to the previous six months and the three-year average. The most notable improvement was noted for Southern Asia, where average delivery durations retreated to more normal level of around 40 days during January-June 2025 after a spike to over 50 days in the latter half of 2024. The average delivery period during January-June 2025 was also 5 days shorter than the three-year average. 
• Mixed changes were reported in Africa. While average delivery times for Middle and Southern Africa were similar or modestly shorter compared to the recent average, estimated at around 31 and 35 days, respectively, values for other African sub-regions increased slightly during the past six months. For instance, at 23 days, the average delivery period for Western Africa was 3 days longer compared to the latter half of 2024 and the three-season average, in part because of elevated durations for deliveries from North America and the European Union, notably to Cote d’Ivoire, Mauritania and Nigeria. The period also featured an unusually long delivery from the Russian port of Kavkaz to Nigeria, which reportedly took more than 100 days.  
• The slight increase in delivery times to Eastern Africa during the first half of 2025, to around 36 days, was partly tied to an increased share of arrivals from the Russian Federation, notably to Tanzania, which are normally associated with longer journey times, compared to shipments from Argentina and Australia. 
• Although Central America saw some reduction in delivery times during January-June 2025, the average duration of around 27 days was still 5 days longer compared to the prior three-year average, in part reflecting increased delivery periods from the United States and Canada.  

Key insights

Role of trade versus delivery time matrix (updated at the beginning of each year)

SSR matrix

• Some regions, including Western Africa, South-eastern Asia, Middle Africa and the Caribbean, are almost totally reliant on imports for their domestic consumption of wheat, although the absolute volume of wheat consumption in the latter two regions is relatively small compared to other areas. At the same time, South-eastern Asia and Middle Africa have one of the longest average delivery times of around 30 days (based on calculated journey-related data over the past three seasons).

Regional timeline chart

• Calculated indicators show a marginal improvement in production-to-consumption levels in Eastern and Southern Africa over the past decade, with the increase in the former sub-region mainly linked to Ethiopia (from 79% in 2015/16 to 86% in 2024/25) and Zimbabwe (from 31% to 64%). Still, sub-regional numbers indicate that domestic production covers less than half of local consumption for all parts of Africa, with the level for Middle Africa close to zero. 

5-year average chart

• The five-year average production to consumption ratios have declined for most parts of Asia over the past decade, with the largest drop for Eastern Asia, where the indicator slid from the average of around 95% during 2015/16-2019/20 to 88% over the following five years. This mainly reflects a falling ratio for China, from 110% in 2015/16 to 95% in 2024/25.
• Conversely, the level of production-to-consumption has improved markedly for South America and Other Europe over the past five years (largely owing to growing production in Argentina, Brazil and the Russian Federation, respectively), with the former region’s average ratio edging above 100% over the past five years.