Wheat maritime trade & food security

General points – Exports/Imports 

Global seaborne wheat imports increased for a third successive month during October. While this helped to narrow the annual lag in deliveries, 2025/26 (July/June) cumulative global arrivals of 49.3 million tonnes remained 3% lower year-on-year, including smaller imports by some major importing sub-regions, including Northern Africa, Eastern and South-eastern Asia. Nonetheless, purchases by the latter sub-region are expected to accelerated in the coming weeks, as new crop supplies replenish the export pipeline in Australia. 

• At around 14.0 million tonnes, estimated global seaborne wheat deliveries during October marked a new MY2025/26 (July/June) high, as the volume rose by 10% from the month before. 
• Global wheat arrivals during October were 6% higher than the same month one year ago, which helped to narrow the year-on-year lag in shipments to 3%, as the aggregate volume during the first four months of the 2025/26 season reached 49.3 million tonnes. 
• While a little lower year-on-year, 2025/26 accumulated seaborne imports through October were 5% ahead of the prior three-year average.
• Cumulative imports by Africa and Asia remain slightly below last season, down by 1% and 4% year-on-year, respectively. In Africa, lagging imports by Northern (-4% year-on-year) and Eastern (-3%) parts contrast with strong deliveries elsewhere, while in Asia, imports to all sub-regions, barring Western Asia, were moderately below last year as of the end of October. Steep annual declines were also noted in arrivals to North America (-52%) and Europe (-48%). 
   

Key insights

Exports vs prices/ freight

• Perceptions of abundant global supplies, including expectations for sizable new crop arrivals in the southern hemisphere, continued to weigh on world wheat export prices during October. Despite the late-month underpinning from broad-based market optimism over US-China trade talks, quotations remained near five-year lows, as tracked by the wheat sub-Index of the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI). As of end-October, the sub-Index was 6% lower year-on-year.
• Average dry bulk freight costs, measured by the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Freight Index (GOFI), also averaged a little lower during October, with activity curtailed by China’s Golden Week Holidays early in the month. Nonetheless, the Index was 16% higher year-on-year as of end-October, with stronger average timecharter rates partly countered by softer marine fuel prices. 
  
   

Bi-weekly / cumulative imports/exports

• The reported 10% monthly increase in world seaborne wheat imports during October chiefly reflected an upturn in deliveries to Northern Africa and some parts of Asia, notably to Eastern and South-eastern Asia. 
• At 3.5 million tonnes (2.9 million tonnes previous month), October deliveries to Northern Africa marked the highest monthly volume since the start of the 2025/26 (July/June) season. Larger deliveries were reported to all countries, except Sudan, albeit as estimated grain wheat arrivals to the latter of around 630,000 tonnes remained well ahead of last year’s 360,000 tonnes. Despite the recent acceleration, accumulated arrivals to Algeria (2.8 million tonnes), Egypt (4.3 million tonnes) and Tunisia (0.5 million tonnes) remained behind last season, with total sub-regional imports of 11.2 million tonnes, down by 4% year-on-year as of end-October.
• October deliveries to Eastern Asia were estimated at around 1.2 million tonnes, 0.2 million tonnes higher than in the month before, but with divergent trends noted across the sub-region. Reduced deliveries to China and Chinese Taipei were outweighed by sharp increases for Japan and South Korea, as both countries saw a sharp upturn in arrivals from the United States. As of 31 October, 2025/26 cumulative arrivals to Eastern Asia were estimated at 4.1 million tonnes, 10% lower year-on-year, with modest annual declines reported for all countries, including China, where seaborne deliveries were estimated at around 730,000 tonnes (1.0 million tonnes one year earlier).
• The third sub-region which saw a marked upturn in arrivals over the past month is South-eastern Asia, where deliveries were estimated at 2.7 million tonnes, up from 1.9 million tonnes during September. The increase was primarily tied to larger arrivals to Indonesia and Vietnam, with accumulated imports by the former now seen a little higher year-on-year, at around 3.5 million tonnes. Imports to-date by Malaysia and the Philippines are also up year-on-year, but those by Myanmar, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam continue to trail last season. However, deliveries to the latter two countries are expected to pick up as new crop arrivals reach the market in Australia.
• A slight month-on-month uptick was reported in deliveries to Western Asia, with sharp increases for Iraq, Oman, Turkey and Yemen outweighing declines elsewhere. Notably, arrivals to Turkey more than doubled during October on surging deliveries from the Russian Federation, to around 530,000 tonnes, taking 2025/26 accumulated imports to 1.1 million tonnes, up 8% year-on-year. Although total arrivals to Western Asia were up by 6% year-on-year as of end-October, at around 5.5 million tonnes, deliveries to Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen were still below last season, mainly reflecting smaller imports from the Russian Federation.
•  A steady pace of arrivals was noted in Western Africa, where October deliveries of around 1.0 million tonnes were little changed from the month before. Consequently, 2025/26 (July/June) cumulative arrivals reached 4.0 million tonnes by 31 October, up 7% year-on-year, with modest declines for Benin, Ghana, Mauritania more than offset by stronger imports by other countries, most notably by Nigeria.
• October arrivals to Southern Asia of 480,000 tonnes broadly matched the previous month’s volume. 2025/26 seaborne imports through October were estimated at 1.9 million tonnes, an 8% annual decline, as shipments to Bangladesh, Iran and Sri Lanka remained behind last season.
• On the opposite side, some slowdown in arrivals during October was noted for Eastern, Middle and Southern Africa. As at 31 October, 2025/26 accumulated imports by Eastern Africa were estimated at 2.6 million tonnes, down by 3% year-on-year on smaller imports by Madagascar, Mozambique and Tanzania. In contrast, imports by Middle Africa remained 11% higher than last year, at a cumulative 850,000 tonnes, reflecting larger arrivals to all constituent destinations. At around 0.9 million tonnes, accumulated deliveries to Southern Africa as of 31 October were little changed year-on-year. In that sub-region, sharply reduced imports by Namibia (30,000 tonnes, down from 165,000 tonnes one year earlier) on smaller imports from the European Union were countered by stronger shipments to South Africa (870,000 tonnes, up from 720,000 tonnes), on this season’s increased purchases from Australia and the United States.
   

Key insights

Expected arrivals

• After an upturn in the first half of October, the volume of wheat cargoes in transit eased towards the end of the month, estimated at 11.7 million tonnes as of 31 October, down by 0.6 million from one month earlier. The total included 9.7 million tonnes with reported destinations (10.3 million tonnes as of the end of September). 
• The aggregate line-up for Asia was broadly steady compared to one month ago, estimated at 5.3 million tonnes, while the volume of transits to Africa subsided to around 3.1 million tonnes (3.4 million tonnes as of end-September). The decline for the latter mainly reflected reduced flows to Northern (mainly Libya and Morocco), Southern (South Africa) and Middle Africa (Angola and the Republic of the Congo).
• In other sub-regions, monthly contractions in expected arrivals were also reported for Central America (chiefly Honduras and Mexico), and South America (primarily Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Ecuador). 
• On the export side, the Russian Federation returned as the leading origin for reported cargoes in transit, at around 2.9 million tonnes. This was 0.8 million tonnes higher than one month before and well ahead of reported volumes for Canada and the United States, estimated at 1.7 million tonnes (0.9 million tonnes one month earlier) and 1.6 million tonnes (2.7 million tonnes), respectively.  The line-up originating from the European Union was estimated at 1.5 million tonnes, down by 0.3 million from end-September. The volume from Australia was sharply lower month-on-month, at 0.8 million tonnes (1.3 million tonnes), while flows from Argentina were little changed, at around 0.6 million tonnes. Those from Ukraine were reported at around 0.5 million tonnes, slightly above the volume registered at the end of September. 
   

Key insights

Exporter line ups

• Available data indicated a slowdown in current vessel loadings at some major wheat origins. In particular, the volume at Australian ports was reported at around 90,000 tonnes, mostly destined for Indonesia, down from around 310,000 tonnes one month earlier.
• The port line-up in Argentina included a 35,000-tonne cargo scheduled for Angola. 
• Around 110,000 tonnes was expected to be shipped from Canadian ports, including 15,000 tonnes to Peru.  
• The data for the Russian Federation included vessel loadings for Egypt and Turkey, as well as around 40,000 tonnes for unspecified destinations.
• In the European Union, 17,000 tonnes were reportedly being loaded in Lithuania for Nigeria, while the line-up in Romania featured a 42,000-tonne cargo for Lebanon. In Poland, around 90,000 tonnes were expected to be dispatched to unknown destinations. 
   

Key insights

Delivery times (updated at the beginning of each quarter)

• Calculated journey times (from dispatch to unloading) show that the average delivery period for global wheat shipments over the past three seasons (July/June) was close to one month (27 days).
• Among net importing sub-regions, Southern Asia and Southern Africa have the longest delivery periods, averaging 45 and 35 days over the past three seasons, respectively. Average delivery times to Eastern and Middle Africa, as well as other parts of Asia (Eastern, South-eastern and Western Asia) also exceeded 30 days.
• In contrast, the shortest delivery times were reported for such net importing sub-regions as the Caribbean (19 days, on average), Northern Africa (23 days) and Central America (22 days).
• At around 27 days, the global average delivery period during the first half of 2025 (January-June) broadly matched the prior three-year average. 
• In all Asian sub-regions, average periods for cargoes delivered during January-June 2025 were slightly shorter compared to the previous six months and the three-year average. The most notable improvement was noted for Southern Asia, where average delivery duration retreated to more normal level of around 40 days during January-June 2025 after a spike to over 50 days in the latter half of 2024. The average delivery period during January-June 2025 was also 5 days shorter than the three-year average.
• Mixed changes were reported in Africa. While average delivery times for Middle and Southern Africa were similar or modestly shorter compared to the recent average, estimated at around 31 and 35 days, respectively, values for other African sub-regions increased slightly during the past six months. For instance, at 23 days, the average delivery period for Western Africa was 3 days longer compared to the latter half of 2024 and the three-season average, in part because of elevated duration for deliveries from North America and the European Union, notably to Cote d’Ivoire, Mauritania and Nigeria. The period also featured an unusually long delivery from the Russian port of Kavkaz to Nigeria, which reportedly took more than 100 days. 
•  The slight increase in delivery times to Eastern Africa during the first half of 2025, to around 36 days, was partly tied to an increased share of arrivals from the Russian Federation, notably to Tanzania, which are normally associated with longer journey times, compared to shipments from Argentina and Australia. 

•  Although Central America saw some reduction in delivery times during January-June 2025, the average duration of around 27 days was still 5 days longer compared to the prior three-year average, in part reflecting increased delivery periods from the United States and Canada. 

   

Key insights

Role of trade versus delivery time matrix (updated at the beginning of each year)

SSR matrix

• Some regions, including Western Africa, South-eastern Asia, Middle Africa and the Caribbean, are almost totally reliant on imports for their domestic consumption of wheat, although the absolute volume of wheat consumption in the latter two regions is relatively small compared to other areas. At the same time, South-eastern Asia and Middle Africa have one of the longest average delivery times of around 30 days (based on calculated journey-related data over the past three seasons).

Regional timeline chart

• Calculated indicators show a marginal improvement in production-to-consumption levels in Eastern and Southern Africa over the past decade, with the increase in the former sub-region mainly linked to Ethiopia (from 79% in 2015/16 to 86% in 2024/25) and Zimbabwe (from 31% to 64%). Still, sub-regional numbers indicate that domestic production covers less than half of local consumption for all parts of Africa, with the level for Middle Africa close to zero. 

5-year average chart

• The five-year average production to consumption ratios have declined for most parts of Asia over the past decade, with the largest drop for Eastern Asia, where the indicator slid from the average of around 95% during 2015/16-2019/20 to 88% over the following five years. This mainly reflects a falling ratio for China, from 110% in 2015/16 to 95% in 2024/25.
• Conversely, the level of production-to-consumption has improved markedly for South America and Other Europe over the past five years (largely owing to growing production in Argentina, Brazil and the Russian Federation, respectively), with the former region’s average ratio edging above 100% over the past five years.